Horrid (and questionable but possibly not right) calls that went against Michigan Saturday.

• Chop block on David Molk. The right guard had not engaged the defensive tackle when Molk went low. This is as bad a judgment call as I’ve seen in a while.
• Greg Mathews diving catch in the endzonde ruled incomplete. This was a close call, but Mathews’s right hand was between the ball and the ground the entire time, and the ball is not jarred loose when he hits the ground (a sure sign that he has full control of it). This isn’t an egregiously bad call, but another example of Michigan getting bad breaks in this game. (video below).
• On 4th & 6, Steven Threet throws (slightly behind) Martavious Odoms. Odoms turns back for the ball, but has no chance to make a catch, because his left wrist is raked by the defender, so he can’t get it back to the ball.
• On the very next play, there is no contact between Donovan Warren and Michael Floyd. The pass is broken up. More than three seconds after the play ends, an official away from the ball throws the least-justified pass interference flag possible. Even the NBC announcers(!) think it is a terrible call. On the next play, Golden Tate catches the game-sealing touchdown (in the first quarter, ugh). (video below)
• Second quarter, Michigan has brought the game back within 11, Notre Dame is driving. On second and goal, Donovan Warren is called for pass interference (“a fag is down in the endzone”) on a ball that was thrown out the back of the endzone (again by a ref with an obstructed view of the play, wtf), and would have been uncatchable by anyone. Notre Dame scores a touchdown on the ensuing first and goal.
• Michigan is driving in the second quarter, and Sam McGuffie is literally pulled to the ground by his facemask, and nothing else. The linesman (who is within 4 yards of the play) reaches for his flag, but decides against throwing it. Ultimately, the umpire says “wtf?” and has to throw the flag from 15 yards downfield. This isn’t exactly a missed call, since the umpire made up for it, but how does a linesman not call that?
• Third quarter, Jimmy Clausen grounds it, no doubt at all. The NBC announcers, of course ruminate for a full minute on how “it was probably close enough” to the line of scrimmage. If it doesn’t pass the line of scrimmage, there is no “close enough.”
• With 3:40 left in the third quarter, Michigan has the ball on ND’s 5. Kevin Grady is stopped for a 1-yard gain, and fumbles. His forward progress had been stopped for a good period of time before the fumble. For those who say it shouldn’t have been ruled forward progress because Grady had carried a guy into the endzone earlier in the game: you’re wrong. On the first play, Grady never stopped moving forward (and was hardly even slowed down). On the second play, Grady was wrapped up low by one Irish, and high by two, with his forward progress completely stoppped, when one of the guys up top strips him. It’s a completely different situation, which should result in a completely different call from the officials.
• With 7 minutes left in the fourth quarter, David Bruton makes an interception for the Irish. On the return, he is brought down by David Molk. Molk is called for a horse collar tackle (at least I think so, the NBC coverage was awful). However, what Molk did (grab and release the back of Bruton’s jersey, causing Bruton to lose his balance and fall down) is not at all a horse collar (definition: grabbing the inside of a ball-carrier’s shoulder pads and riding him to the ground). I don’t know how the refs could make such an egregious error on a 15-yard penalty.

Of course, Michigan beat themselves in this game, and they certainly had opportunities to win the game themselves. However, couple all of the above (9 possible mistakes by officials, with at least 3-4 being definite mistakes) with the following Michigan mistakes:

• Following the Molk chop block, Steven Threet and Brandon Minor conspire to fumble the ball inside their own 20, giving Notre Dame a short field. Michigan’s defense can’t stop the Irish.
• On the ensuing kickoff, Michael Shaw muffs the ball, giving Notre Dame yet another short field, on which they convert.
• Donovan Warren, Stevie Brown, and John Thompson all miss tackles on Golden Tate, ultimately resulting in a Notre Dame touchdown.
• Steven Threet fumbles a snap once the torrential downpour begins, which the Irish return for a touchdown.
• Nick Sheridan. Egregious Interceptions. obvs. He completed all five passes he threw, but two of them were to the guys in blue shirts.

…and you have a recipe for disaster that is unlikely to be repeated again.

Notre Dame had no sustained drives, and was outgained 388-260. They also had every single fumble of their own bounce right back to their own players (the exact opposite of what happened to Michigan).

The Wolverines should look at Saturday’s contest with an optimistic light, and Notre Dame fans should be fearful that their win was little more than a fluke.

Posted under Analysis

The refs were truly brutal in this game. I certainly won’t blame them for the end result, but they definitely had a hand in getting the game there. Awful PI calls on Warren, a somewhat questionable one on Trent, and a catch by Mathews gave the Irish about a 15 point swing, and when playing from behind, players are more likely to take risks to make a big play. Also, the Grady fumble should have been called dead for forward progress. That was a hell of a missed call. Again, the players are ultimately responsible for the result, but this is a young team that didn’t really deserve the help in beating itself.

The defensive line was kinda crappy. Though they ultimately allowed ND to get only 3.3 yards for each carry, they gave up some critical yards in the third and fourth quarters. Still, when the defense only gives up 1 or 2 scoring drives (one ND TD “drive” started at the Michigan 11, one at the Michigan 14, two were composed almost entirely of a long pass to Golden Tate, and the final TD was scored on defense), it’s hard to find a ton of fault on that side of the ball.

Steven Threet, as predicted by many, has settled down the more game reps he has gotten. He finally calmed down enough to execute the throws that he was floating before. Then Sheridan came in a reminded Michigan fans why they should want Threet to succeed.

Sam McGuffie looks like the real deal. The offensive line was still sub-optimal against the Irish, and McGuffie had some impressive runs (and of course the screen pass). It was so kind of Perry Dorrestein to slam into McGuffie from behind on the touchdown screen.

Going forward, this game should probably give a little more hope to Michigan fans, though they are still disappointed for what could have been. I guess that’s what Michigan gets for RUNNING THE SPREAD OPTION IN HURRICANE KATRINA.

Posted under Analysis

Some of our unfiltered thoughts from the game:

• Tim and I both agreed that Threet looked much better than Sheridan again. He made better reads, better throws (for the most part), and even looked more authoritative on his runs. With a repertoire of two half games for each, I think Steven Threet should be the starting quarterback. I wasn’t watching the broadcast, so I don’t know why they were rotating; I think it was to give each guy a shot against the same team (again).
• Mark Ortmann came out in the third quarter, but the injury was treated with an icepack on his elbow. It didn’t appear to be too serious, and God help us all if it is.
• The gameplan seemed to be almost the exact same as last week. Even the first play was the exact same (of course, Odoms had much more success on it today than he did against Utah). Are the coaches holding back tricks for later games, and keeping it vanilla (a la DeBord), or is this everything they can do with quarterbacks who can barely throw and run?
• Shaw was running well, then disappeared. Anyone watch the broadcast and hear why that might have been? In Shaw’s stead, McGuffie was the best running back. I’m surprised we didn’t see more of Grady when they ran from the I-form. Minor was, well, Minor. That is neither good nor bad.
• The fans faded during the course of the game. When the team gave them something to be really excited about, they responded. However, the fan momentum wasn’t really maintained, and the third quarter was pretty quiet.
• The half-rolls that Miami was using on offense was pretty effective (once they went to it – nice adjustment by the Miami coaching staff). It prevents a fairly dominant D-line from getting to the quarterback. We’ll see if other teams go to that sort of strategy, and how Shafer reacts.
• This offense hasn’t been making too many big plays (aside from a couple of runs getting blown open and the Odoms screen), but when you watch them play, it is clear that they have big-play potential, and are just a slight improvement in execution away from making something very interesting happen. As the experience across the board improves (especially if Zirbel and Ortmann can get/stay healthy), and more of the playbook is installed, this offense may be adequate down the road.
• The offensive line was again a weak point. We can hope for improvement and the return of Zirbel, and they could be good (enough) by the end of the year.
• Obi Ezeh was again a badass in terms of making tackles, and seemed to defend the pass better this week (albeit against worse competition). He could be a really special player down the line.

Anything to add?

Posted under Analysis

In yesterday’s Unverified Voracity, Brian mentioned that the mass media will com up with a message that they want to write about, and then write their article about that whether or not the circumstances are true. For example, he said that the media would assume that fans would criticize Rodriguez’s playcalling, and wrote their articles regardless of whether that was true or not.

Another annoying instance of this I’ve run across is the assumption that Michigan fans think the sky is falling down. With an upset against a far inferior team, among the worst that Michigan will play this year, fans clearly think that Michigan will struggle to win a single game this year…

…except that’s not at all what Michigan fans are saying. Those who have a clue (which is, thankfully and surprisingly, a majority) realize that Utah might be the best non-Ohio State team (and certainly among them) that the Wolverines will face in 2008, and have set expectations accordingly. Sure, people are disappointed in the play of the offense, but nearly everyone I’ve talked to has been encouraged by the play of the defense in the second half, and thinks that the offense can only improve with Steven Threet the man in charge. The most negative article I’ve seen was Brian’s game column.

So, mass media, don’t make assumptions about fan perception and write your articles from your assumptions: you might want to take into account, you know, the truth.

Posted under Analysis

QB Comparison:

Though Threet’s stats are worse than Sheridan’s, most people who watched the game would agree that Threet looked to be the better of the two QBs in this game (this is like saying “the less painful way to get hit in the nuts with a baseball bat”). There are several factors that account for this.

• After the first scoring drive, Sheridan went from competent (started the gane 11/13) to sucky (went 0/6 the rest of the way).
• Nick Sheridan threw an ugly interception to close out the half that ultimately ended up deciding the game. He also had an interception wiped out due to a pass interference call.
• Sheridan tried to rip a ball out of McGuffie’s hands after he had already given it away, resulting in a lost fumble.
• Threet’s attempts all came after the ground game was abandoned due to both ineffectiveness and a need to slow down the clock.
• Threet’s touchdown pass was prettier.
• The offense was more effective with Threet in the game.
• Threet seemed to be more poised than Sheridan (oh god, Clausen comparisons ahoy).
• The offense just seemed to be clicking a little more (which is to say: at all) under Threet’s guidance.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Steven Threet as the starting QB next week, and I think deservedly so. however, Miami’s defense is not as good as Utah’s, so unless we see major improvement against the RedHawks, the offense could remain ugly all year. There were likely some first game jitters playing a role in the poor QB play as well, so don’t expect anything this bad again, but don’t expect to see Threet or Sheridan threaten for All-conference honors, either.

Rushing Comparison:

Ugly. I think that although the running backs had a pretty bad day, much of the blame falls on the offensive line. The backfield was collapsed on most plays, meaning that the runners had to struggle just to get back to the line of scrimmage most of the time. Brandon Minor had one good looking run, but also a crippling fumble.

Once the offensive line gets a little more used to game shape, and starts playing against less talented D-lines, hopefully they can gel a bit and become more successful. Failing that, we can pray for a midseason return from Corey Zirbel that suddenly makes the line awesome.

Michigan’s 36 yards finished 99th out of the 105 D-1A teams that have played so far this season, tied with Utah.

Defense by Half:
Utah’s total offense in the first half: 303 yards.
Utah’s total offense in the second half: 38 yards.

As Lloyd said (erroneously) after the 2005 loss to Notre Dame: “We may have lost a game, but found a defense.”

After the halftime break, the players realized that the 2008 season started at 3:30 Saturday, and even if they were going to show up a couple hours late, they would just make up for it with an extra-special effor
t in the second half.

I really do believe that Utah has one of the best offenses Michigan will face this year, and certainly among the most balanced. In the second half, they managed to shut that offense down. If anything, I’m disappointed that the game was lost, but I think the defensive improvement over the course of the game is a source of optimism going forward.

Helping the Wolverines
Of course, Utah’s mistakes were a big part of why Michigan managed to keep this game as close as it was. Utah amassed an amazing 137 yards worth of penalties in the game. This makes them the second-in-command for Mythical Penatly-Committing National Champion, behind Texas Tech.

Another note about Utah helping Michigan (though this is also something the defense and special teams earned):
Michigan’s average starting field position: their own 30.9 yard line.
Average starting field position on scoring drives: Utah’s 35 yard line.
The only scoring drive that didn’t begin in Utah territory was the field goal, and even that series began on the 50.

The Incredible Frozen Offensive Line
So, uh what was with the plays where the offensive line didn’t move?

There are two theories:

• It was just a trick play.
• Michigan’s center was trying to catch the Utes offsides.

I believe, at least partially, in theory number 2, since the second time Michigan ran this play, the referees seemed to miss an egregious offsides penalty by Utah’s entire defensive line. It could also be a trick play, but it seems a little counter intuitive to:

1. Trick the defensive line into not rushing.
2. Roll out, away from a presumably non-rushing defensive line.
3. Throw a fade route, designed to hope that the DB doesn’t notice the play has started, when he isn’t really watching the O-line for the beginning of the play anyway.

If anyone else has further insights about this, by al means, speak up.

For this week’s Inside the Play, I’ll be breaking down the Nick Sheridan touchdown pass to Michael Shaw.

Posted under Analysis

Michigan lost a home game to a MWC team, so you can expect that I’m disappointed/angry/horrified, etc.

However, I have to say I’m actually encouraged by today’s game.

• After the defensive players realized that the season had started, and they should probably, you know, play football, that unit completely dominated.
• The offense was pretty bad. The line was decent for the players that are left one it, but they’ll need to improve over the course of the season if Michigan is going to be successful. The QB was pretty bad, but some of it was first-game jitteriness, and some was being rattled by the QB pressure. There should be an improvement by the QBs next week against a much worse defense.
• The special teams were very good. Nice to see Lopata nail a career-long FG, and see multiple kicks (an extra point and a punt) blocked. What’s scary is that I only see this unit getting better during the year.

Of course, it’s always a disappointment to lose, but I saw it coming, so it doesn’t sting as much as maybe it should. Lowered expectations lead to a happier postgame feeling. If the defense can play all year like it did in the second half, I expect this team to be top-25 quality (even if the record won’t reflect that until much later in the year). If the offense can come around, this could be a decent year in Ann Arbor.

Posted under Analysis

I didn’t want to say it, for fear of a jinx, or looking like an idiot when we got obliterated, but for some reason I just had a feeling that Michigan would be able to knock off Florida. The talent that Michigan had all year was finally able to put together a completely healthy effort, leaving the 2007 season with a major “what if?” for Michigan fans. Notes:

• I was talking to some Florida fans before the game. The UF Athltic Department tells the fans what color to wear for each game, and they manage to get (mostly) everyone wearing either blue or orange. In two years of teeling everyone to wear the same color for every single game (no confusion excuse), how is it possible that Michigan is unable to get a uniform crowd, even for a maize out?
• It’s not all positive for Florida fans, though. They really showed off their SEC speed in getting the hell out of the stadium with 3+ minutes left in the game (after the first failed fourth down conversion).
• How is it possible that Michigan ticket sales were cut off because they ran out, yet the stadium was still 80% Florida fans? Something in bowl ticket distribution definitely needs to be adjusted.
• The Michigan band’s halftime show was a mixture of a few songs from their various crappy halftime shows this year. At least they know how to make more than 5 different formations unlike the Florida band. Speaking of which, how awesome would it be for one of the band formations to be a shape of Michigan?
• I didn’t hear any talking heads spouting about SEC speed after the game. How about Morgan Trent chasing down OMG HEISMAN SHOE-IN 2008 Percy Harvin from behind, coming all the way across the field. Of course, all will be forgotten by the National Championship game, regardless of who wins that one (unless OSU just houses Louisiana State).
• Great scheming, both offensively and defensively, by the coaches. If only DeBord had called games like this all year long. On a similar note, word on the street is that coach English will be named DC at Louisville. Good luck to him in the future.
• Pat Forde is really dumb. I’ve heard people criticizing him consistently for the past couple years, but only recently started reading to see what the big deal is. They were right.
• Players leaving? Rumor and innuendo are all that is out there, but among impact players, Manningham, Mallett, Taylor, and Arrington are the only ones consistently cited. Hell of a showcase game for Arrington if he decides to leave.

Pictures from the game (maybe) coming when I get back to Ann Arbor.

Posted under Analysis

With the return of the highlight comes the return of the shitty music! Enjoy.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sS0F8y1RT84]

Posted under Analysis, Video

5 Passing plays were called on first and ten, 23 running plays.

1. Incomplete pass to Moundros (0 yards).
2. Pass Interference (15 yards).
3. Mallett scramble (7 yards).
4. Mallett sack (-16 yards).
5. Manningham Touchdown Bomb (40 yards).

The running plays were distibuted as follows

• Brown 9/42 (1 lost fumble)
• Minor 11/110
• Hemingway 1/-1
• Milano 1/7
• Mallett lost fumble, returned for touchdown.

Mallett obviously struggled as much on first down as he did on any other. Am I trying to contradict Brian’s assertions that running on first down too often sets Mallett up to fail? No, but it doesn’t seem that, at least against a team like Minnesota who can’t stop the run to save their lives, the data don’t necessarily support the conclusion. Seeing as how, in all honesty, I did this little analysis to find supporting evidence for Brian’s conclusions, I think it’s fair to say that against a team with a pulse, the data will support what he has said.

That said, Minnesota was actually much better against the run than I was expecting. When a team like North Dakota State is able to shred you for 394 yards, I would expect Michigan to have an easy go on the ground. 228 of Michigan’s 307 yards rushing came after halftime, when the Gopher defense started to wear down.

Zoltan didn’t have an excellent day punting the ball, as his gravitational mind powers couldn’t keep the ball from rolling into the endzone on 3 of his four punts. However, on at least 1 of said punts (and probably a second), Charles Stewart was in position to down the ball inside the five, and failed to make a play. Zoltan was putting adequate air under the ball, and his coverage team just let him down. The third touchback, however, was like 4 yards deep, and nobody had a chance to rescue it.

Interesting choice by Mike DeBord to have David Cone throw it deep on the last play of the game. It certainly showed that passing when the other team doesn’t know you have to (i.e. third and long), and especially running play action when they are almost certain you will run, definitely puts your quarterback in a better position to succeed. Congrats to David on being 1/1 on his career.

The defense again stepped up, allowing only one sustained drive (on which Minnesota went 68 yards in 10 plays, ending with a field goal). The only other Gopher points were on a fumble return for touchdown (should we start worrying about “Argh Mallett huge mistake” costing us the game in the next three years?).

Junior Hemingway lined up at tailback a few times (in addition to running an ISQD). Is it possible that he moves there in the future? He certainly looks more the part. He has thicker legs than your average wide receiver, and if he’s the same height as Adrian Arrington, I’m the same height as Andre the Giant.

Did anyone see the linesman take out a Gopher player as he and Manningham were talking a little too angrily after a play?

As far as Hart and Henne go, Lloyd used the term “optimistic” when asked whether they would be good to go against State.

Posted under Analysis

Wondering what Paul and I were talking about Saturday night? Here is your chance to find out. Moderately edited version of our conversation follows.

LSU v. Kentucky

Paul: that [LSU/Kentucky] was a crazy game
Tim: yeah
Tim: i can’t decide if i’m happy about the result or not
Paul: i now have no clue what my ballot will look like
Tim: no joke
Tim: i probably have osu #1
Tim: cal #2 [pre-Cal loss]
Paul: les miles threw rock
Tim: yeah
Tim: which is what lloyd haters hate
Tim: but…
Tim: i guess he is a true michigan man
Paul: kentucky wasn’t exactly paper against rock all game
Tim: truf

Play-by play Announcers

Tim: cbs announcers are terrrrrrrrible
Paul: i don’t hate verne
Paul: that would be like hating your grandpa
Tim: they are frontrunners to promote the SEC. Whoever is winning is doing so because they are just that much more awesome than the almost equally-awesome team they are beating
Tim: i’m going to be honest
Tim: the SEC, Pac 10, and big 10 are about the same on a multi-year basis
Paul: yeah
Tim: =-o
Paul: and also… there’s no way to compare conferences
Tim: the SEC thing comes from an exclusive-ish contract
Tim: because CBS promotes the SEC like its their job
Tim: whereas ABC/ESPN is split amongst all conferences
Tim: pac-10 gets bonus cred from the fox thing, but not much
Tim: when BTN is national, B10 will get more respect [I believe this to be inevitable ay this point]
Paul: i watched a bit of the nd game
Tim: yeah
Tim: ND sucks
Tim: BC was unimpressive
Paul: nbc seemed to be thinking “fuck. first hockey, now this”
Tim: yeah
Tim: they were still pathetic ND homers though
Tim: per usual
Paul: i only get so mad at the homerish
Paul: i mean…
Paul: it’s basically like the announcers on fsn for the tigers
Tim: yeah
Paul: if they only cover one team… i guess it’s allowed
Tim: but vastly different
Paul: it’s that it’s a national network rather than an rsn
Tim: because FSN uses tigers-specific people
Tim: nbc is a national network
Tim: and should theoretically be bias-less
Paul: i bet a vast majority of their audience (esp. this year) appreciates the bias
Paul: and if they were non-biased, they would be accused of hating
Tim: haha espn throws hart a bone in heisman race
Tim: in case you aren’t watching ak/auburn
Tim: ak being my hilariously erroneous “arkansas” abbreviation, rather than its accurate “alaska” abbreviation

Michigan Injuries

Paul: any word on mhart’s condition?
Tim: he’s fine
Tim: was going to come out soon anyway
Tim: could have come back otherwise [prior to the high-ankle sprain news]
Paul: i kind of felt like it was a 30pt lead injury
Tim: and, apparently mouton isn’t so much injured as he gets beaten out by chris graham
Tim: ouch
Tim: that’s like getting beaten out by jason gingell
Paul: i know
Tim: sorry, bryan wright
Tim: but you suck
Paul: apparently wright has a groin injury
Paul: at least that’s the excuse
Tim: really?
Paul: except he’s doing kos
Tim: i had no idea
Tim: he’s not having distance issues
Tim: which i would think would be the probem with an injury
Paul: i know
Tim: especially since an injury like that wouldn’t last 8 weeks, without getting either better or worse
Paul: what happened with englemon?
Tim: ?
Paul: was it just “blow out- get him out?”
Tim: dunno
Paul: stevie was in with the rest of the 1st team
Tim: i didn’t notice he went out
Tim: i think it’s “try to prepare for the future” time
Paul: which could make sense for learning
Tim: in that particular case
Tim: i didn’t feel like staying for the press conferences
Tim: so i don’t know for sure
Paul: gotcha
Tim: but englemon was walking fine after the game
Tim: so i’d assume it’s getting brown starting minutes
Paul: i bet it was learning
Tim: esp. considering he was really the starter at the beginning of the year
Paul: yeah
Paul: good choice…

Michigan Special Teams

Paul: what’d you think of our ko strategy?
Tim: especially since an injury wouldn’t last 8 weeks
Paul: some kids behind me were bitching
Paul: yeah
Tim: i wasn’t upset
Tim: when they are #2 in the country in yds/ko
Tim: plus the first one
Paul: by the way… zoltan has mind lasers
Tim: you do what you have to
Tim: it’s an example that lloyd doesn’t just throw rock while ignoring the results
Tim: zoltan has all sorts of lasers
Paul: this team has made so many adjustments throughout the season
Tim: including fuck lion lasers

The game itself

Paul: so do you ascribe to the “we’re actually a pretty good team at this point” reasoning or the “purdue == straw man” argument?
Tim: a bit of both
Tim: though i definitely believe in each
Tim: so more like a lot of both
Paul: the thing is… michigan didn’t just win
Tim: we could have put up 80 if we wanted
Paul: they were like, “I’ll see your shellacking, and raise you a walloping, OSU…”
Paul: so… can we say that the D didn’t give up one legit TD?
Tim: whether you give them a 6 yard drive or not, you still gave up a td
Tim: especially since you allowed them to tie the game
Paul: it was 4…
Tim: but the only legit td was definitely on the offense
Paul: yeah
Tim: sorry i was on the field where i couldn’t see exactly how many yards

Crowd

Tim: the crowd was actually pretty fucking good
Tim: especially for a blowout
Paul: it was pretty quiet after hart went out
Tim: hart went out when the game was long over
Paul: and when we couldn’t find him after half
Paul: it’s true
Paul: it was nice to have a full on wave in kind of garbagy time
Tim: yeah
Tim: and it was early 3rd too
Paul: it was nice to have garbage time

Comcast

Tim: i hate comcast fyi
Tim: i fully intend to call and bitch at them wasted tonight
Tim: though BTN has them by the balls if they get the UM/MSU game
Paul: yeah
Tim: as both talent and the exec producer and producers think will happen
Paul: the comcast OD lady gave me the company line when i was talking to her
Tim: oh yeah?
Paul: yeha
Paul: i bit my tounge

Posted under Analysis, Coaching, Personnel