The offensive line will be the area of least knowledge going into the spring for those not affiliated with the program. A new skill set will likely be required of Rich Rodriguez’s offensive linemen than was of Lloyd Carr’s. The existing players with the best fit will play under Rodriguez. Not-yet-existing for this spring are incoming freshmen Dann O’Neill, Rocko Khoury, Kurt Wermers, Ricky Barnum, Elliott Mealer, and Patrick Omameh. At the guard positions, it looks like at least one of them will have to play for depth this season.

While I think it would be good for Steve Schilling to move inside (both for his skill set and depth along the interior), I have heard he is being kept at tackle for now. Ortmann will likely man the left tackle spot, and Boren is a lock at one of the guard positions, barring injury. David Moosman and Molk will battle with Tim McAvoy for the remaining two spots. I have given the nod to those that I think are more likely to win the battles.

After spring, there will be a lot more clarity as to where certain guys will fit. Of note: Nobody on this depth chart will lose their eligibility following this season.

Posted under Analysis, Personnel, Spring Coverage

The only freshman who will participate in spring practice is Darryl Stonum. None of the others (Shaw, Roundtree, Odoms, Robinson, Koger, and Moore) will arrive on campus until fall camp. Position battles include Butler v. Massey at tight end (I see Butler excelling in the Rodriguez system – if he can make it through the conditioning regimen) and the #2 receiver spot is essentially up for grabs, along with slot receiver. Avery Horn is listed under slot (as well as RB), because it is unclear which position he is more likely to play (probably a combination).

Posted under Analysis, Personnel, Spring Coverage

Part 2 in the Pre-spring preview. Today will be the offense.

Obviously Justin Feagin, Mike Cox, and Sam McGuffie are not going to be around until the fall, and will not participate in spring practice. Thus, the positional battles will not be fully settled until the fall. Battles of note: I think Vince Helmuth will become the starter in a system that places a greater emphasis on athleticism. Kevin Grady is listed at tailback on this chart, though it is possible that spring brings a change to the MX position, or at least learning both of the positions. Andre Criswell is more of a classic fullback (and is not even exceptional at that position); I’m not sure if he’s much of a fit at MX. I’m starting to wonder if a player like him will ever find a spot on Rich Rodriguez’s team.

Posted under Analysis, Personnel, Spring Coverage

I wanted to watch some Florida games before writing a preview of their team, but I didn’t have the opportunity here in Orlando. Specifically, I wanted to be able to see what Auburn did against the Gators both this year and last (this year: held them to 17 points, the only time they scored below 30; last year: hold them to 17 points, only team to defeat the Gators). Obviously, I’m of the opinion that if Michigan can hold Florida below 17 they can win this game. Instead, I’ll have to give a more shallow preview, for which I’ll apologize now.

Pretend like this isn’t BC and Michigan State.

Florida starts and ends with Tim Tebow. The 2007 Heisman trophy winner rushed for 838 yards and 22 touchdowns, while passing for 3132 yards and 29 touchdowns. He is, like, good and stuff. Michigan will look to Shawn Crable to stuff Tebow’s running, and the Michigan secondary to stop his passing. The Wolverines’ secondary has turned into something of a strong point this year with two senior safeties in Brandent Englemon and Jamar Adams, along with a very good corner in Morgan Trent, and a developing freshman in Donovan Warren. The main question in defending the pass is the depth, as Florida will try to spread apart Michigan with 5-wide sets (which will also open up the scramble for Tebow). Brandon Harrison is an adequate nickel, and Stevie Brown will be a good safety someday. However, neither of these players is a world-beater. Quarterback pressure will play a key role in forcing Tebow to throw, rather than run (by containing him, something Michigan has done very poorly this year), and also by making him get rid of the ball more quickly than he wants to.

Percy Harvin is Florida’s other key offensive weapon, and he is a fast one. Harvin was recruited as a wide receiver, but most of his offensive touches this year have been runs. However, he is still the Gators’ second-leading receiver, to Andre Caldwell. The Florida O-line has still been incapable of coming up with a conventional running attack, but with Tebow and Harvin in the backfield, that is nearly irrelevant.

The Florida defense is where more of the vulnerability lies. 37 points ceded to Kentucky and 42 to Georgia are certainly signs that this isn’t last year’s Gator D. The pass efficiency defense, in particular, is a sore point for the Gators, ranking 63rd after last year’s #4 unit. Losing sackmaster Jarvis Moss hurts, as does the entire secondary, most of whom (including big-hitting safety Reggie Nelson) are playing in the NFL. The problem for Michigan is quarterback play. Chad Henne hasn’t been healthy all year, and Ryan Mallett clearly isn’t ready to lead Michigan yet (and may be considering a transfer). The receivers are fairly reliable, with the occasional ball they shouldn’t drop, and the protection has been slightly subpar this year as well.

The running game for Michigan may be a problem as well. The Wolverines struggle in 2007, especially towards the end of the year. The offensive line performance was pitiful against Ohio State, and if they don’t get it together, this could be an ugly game. Mike Hart’s high ankle sprain has had some time to heal, and his backups got some time this year, in case he is unable to compete at 100%.

The coaching will play a large role in this game as well, and herein lies the separation. Urban Meyer is one of America’s elite coaches, and Lloyd Carr is on his way out, partially because he just can’t do it anymore. Urban calls the plays for Florida, and he does a great job, with last year’s National Title game as a prime example. Genius plays such as the Tebow Option Pass left the Buckeyes defense… er… defenseless, and Chris Leak was able to complete his first 8 passes, helping develop his confidence. Michigan’s defensive braintrust has thus far been unable to stop a spread-option offense, and Rich Rodriguez has not worked with the Wolverines yet to help with this situation. Michigan’s offensive playcalling is just bad, and Michigan fans probably won’t be sad to see Mike DeBord leave after the Capital One Bowl.

In terms of intangibles, perhaps the most important factor is Michigan’s coaching staff being in control of this game while on the way out. Will the team fire up to play for Lloyd’s last game, or fold because their leaders are lame ducks? In addition, many on the coaching staff may be worried about their next stop, rather than this game, causing them to lose focus. Home field advantage will be strongly against Michigan (as it almost always is in the bowl season). At the Champs Sports Bowl, an usher told me he expects the crowd of 72,000 to be split 75-25 in favor of the Gators (note to Michigan fans attending the game: see this as an opportunity, not an excuse) (for the record, the Champs Sports Bowl was 60-40 in favor of State). The last intangible to take into consideration is the Curse of the Heisman. Like nearly all such curses, the COTH is likely a myth. However, there may be some truth to egos being inflated for players taking home the trophy. Troy Smith, Reggie Bush, and Jason White all lost their bowl games, though it’s fair to say that Urban Meyer, Vince Young, and the USC Trojans had something to do with that.

Posted under Analysis

When the Wolverines and the Badgers take the field on Saturday, two pre-season top-five teams, already having accumulated a total of five losses, will be playing for far less than the National Championship berth that was their expected goal. Wisconsin, 3-3 in the conference, has not been the defensive juggernaut that many expert predicted, whereas Michigan’s explosive offense, featuring Mike Hart, Mario Manningham, Chad Henne and Jake Long, was unable to put enough points on the board to beat non-conference foes Appalachian State(!) and Oregon.

Among the many things that have required adjustments for both teams are a wide range of injuries. Wisconsin’s starter P.J. Hill, last season’s Big Ten Freshman of the Year, has missed time in the last two Badger games, including the entire loss to Ohio State. Two members of Michigan’s offensive contingent, Chad Henne and Mike Hart, have battled different injuries throughout the year, and each has missed at least two games.

When the teams take the field on Saturday, the injury situation is likely to play a key role for both teams. The first hit for Wisconsin: starting cornerback Allen Langford is out for the season after injuring his knee against Ohio State. The losses don’t end there for the badgers, however. Starting defensive tackle Jason Chapman is also going to miss the remainder of the year, right offensive tackle Eric Vanden Heuvel is not expected to play, and those in the know predict P.J. Hill will not hit the field against the Wolverines.

The personnel shuffling doesn’t end there for Wisconsin, as there will be changes in favor of getting some young guys more playing time, in addition to players returning from injury. The strong safety competition has been reopened, and redshirt freshman Jay Valai has a strong chance to earn the spot. Junior offensive guard Andy Kemp comes back after missing the last three weeks with a hand injury. This, along with Vanden Heuvel’s injury, will really shake up the offensive line. A backup running back (likely Lance Smith) might not be able to find a lot of room to run behind this reshuffling, and Tyler Donovan should fear for his life (he was sacked ten times against Ohio State).

The badgers may be able to take heart in the other side of the line, where Michigan is far from injury-free. Right guard Alex Mitchell, who started the year out at right guard, but has missed most of the season with injury, returned to the lineup against Michigan State, and is expected the get the start. Strong safety Brandent Englemon went down after making a tackle against the Spartans, and while he is expected to start, his full status is not known. Henne and Hart both played through injuries against MSU, and while Henne is expected to be close to 100%, Hart may be more hurt than he has let on. He missed most of the second half of last week’s game.

Jason Chapman has one assisted sack. The badgers are 46th in pass defense efficiency, and with Chapman unable to provide a bit of pressure, and replacing a senior in the secondary with a freshman, and a redshirt sophomore back there with a redshirt freshman (potentially), Chad Henne should be able to sling the ball through the air. His offensive line is the healthiest it’s been all year. Moving the ball on the ground for Michigan is still questionable. While Chapman only has 2 solo tackles for loss, and 26 total tackles on the year, even with him that Badgers are 58th in run defense. Mike Hart is a major upgrade over his backups, but Michigan’s O-line is finally healthy.

On the other side of the ball, Michigan’s injuries are minimal, pending the status of Brandent Englemon. Wisconsin has to replace a starting right tackle, likely with a redshirt freshman (albeit an Army All-American in Jake Bscherer). Also on the offensive line, Wisconsin makes a change at left guard, and although it is a starter returning from injury, the cohesion along the offensive line may be affected, as Andy Kemp has not played for three weeks. Losing P.J. Hill hurts the most for Wisconsin. He was the team’s MVP last year, and is a bruising runner in the style of Michigan State’s Jehuu Caulcrick, who had his way with the Michigan defense in the second half for Michigan State. Lance Smith is amore speedy runner, who has averaged 6.4 yards per carry.

The conclusion? Wisconsin is certainly far more banged up than Michigan. The secondary for the Badgers should be the weak link, as this is likely the strongest receiving corps they have seen this year (no disrespect intended to the Buckeyes). The Badger run game should struggle as well, with two changes on the offensive line, and the starter at running back either out or severely hampered by injury. The tale of the trainer’s table definitely leans in favor of Michigan.

Posted under Analysis, Personnel

Appalachian State has won the past two Division I-AA (take that, NCAA!) National Championships, and is ranked #1 in the preseason poll for the division again this year. Last year, they played a I-A opponent in NC State, and lost 23-10.

Offense
Quarterback – Armanti Edwards didn’t start until game 3 last year, but still managed to lead his team to a national championship. He is a run-pass threat, throwing for 2,251 yards (left-handed) and running for 1,153 more. He was the national freshman of the year, so it’s surprising that he’s not on more all-american watch lists. His backup, Trey Elder, is a senior who has performed admirably when called upon (national championship game 2005), Like Edwards, he ran for about half the number of yards as he threw. He ranked 21st in I-AA in passing efficiency, at 140.7.
Running back – Senior Kevin Richardson will enter the year as a candidate for the Walter Payton Award (1-AA Heisman). He holds most of ASU’s scoring records, and has 3,455 career rushing yards (for comparison, Mike Hart has 3,770). He was a third-team all American last year. QB Armanti Edwards also carries a big part of the load running the rock. Backup Devon Moore, a sophomore, was the third leading rusher last year.
Receivers – Fast Fast Fast Wideout Dexter Jackson will step in as the team’s leading receiver (for the departed William Mayfield), and he is a deep threat, despite only being 5-10. 14 yards per reception last year, with a long of 79. RB Kevin Richardson was the team’s third-leading receiver last year, and Junior TJ Courman will also haul in his share of balls. The team lost their best tight end in Daniel Betts. App State lists about 100 Wideouts in their two-deep, and no fullnack, so a lot of players will get their time to catch a couple, including 6-3 Josh Johnson, the tallest wideout on the team.
Line – First team All-american Kerry Brown returns at the guard position, though he did miss some fall camp with a neck injury. It’s not serious enough that he won’t play, but missing practice, especially in the offensive line, can hurt cohesion. The middle three linemen are all seniors, with Brown joined by C Scott Suttle and G John Holt. The tackles are Mario Acitelli, a true sophomore who had to start most of last year because of injuries, and Jonathan Bieschke, a junior who was mostly a special teams player last year.

Defense
Corner – Jerome Touchstone “One of the fastest players in the nation,” is a true cover corner, though he won’t match up well against the Wolverines, what with being tiny and all. The 5-7 Senior was second-team all-conference last year, though he’ll be matched up againt 6-0 Mario Manningham, or one of the 6-3 options in Arrington and Mathews. His counterpart, Justin Waozeah, is not a particularly huge guy himself, measuring in at 5-10. He started every game last year, and 40 in his career.
Safety – Corey Lynch is a likely all-american candidate. The 5th-year senior has accumulated all-american honors in two previous seasons, and is the school’s all time interception leader, with 18. Titus Howard is the starter at Nickel in App State’s 4-2-5 alignment, with awesomely-named Chase Laws manning the Bandit position. All the safeties are seniors, bringing experience to the defensive backfield. Howard played in almost every game last year, though it was primarily as a special teams contributor. He had his best game against N.C. State, tallying 8 tackles and a fumble recovery. Laws was a 2006 special-teamer as well.
Linebackers – The linebackers for the Mountaineers are a French-name affair, as Pierre Banks plays on the weakside, with Jacque Roman in the middle. Both players are sophomores in their first year as starters. Banks is pretty small, measuring in at only 210 pounds. He probably won’t be a force against the run. Roman, actually engaged in a battle with incumbent Cam Speer, on the other hand, is a stout 6-1 240. Despite being a little guy at only 6-0 215, Speer will be more likely to play on passing downs. He was injured through much of 2006, but still started at the beginning of the year, before Roman beat him out.
Line – Defensive Tackle Tim Washington is the key player along the line for App. State. The junior (a high school teammate of Wolverines Brandon Herron and Troy Woolfolk) used to attend LSU, but left the team after a knee injury during his redshirt freshman year kept him off the field his first two seasons playing. He isn’t listed on the ASU two-deep yet, but there’s a reason this guy was recruited by LSU. The projected starters are all sophomores. Tackles Daniel Finnerty and Anthony Williams will be first year starters, though Williams played in short-yardage situations last year as a true freshman. End Tony Robertson played last year as a true freshman, and racked up 3.5 TFL and 2.5 sacks. The other end is Gary Tharrington, who was a high-level performer last year as a redshirt freshman starter. He recorded seven tackles against N.C. State.

Special Teams
Kicker – Julian Rauch punted part-time in ’06, while serving as App. State’s kicker. He was a steady 70-71 on extra points, and a less great 10-14 on field goals, with a long of 46. The senior was first-team all-conference, and will become the Mountaineers’ all-time leading kicker this year, barring injury (he is only four points short). He went to East Carolina before transferring to App. State after a freshman year in which he did not play.
Punter – Neil Young was the starter last year, until he became too busy releasing classic rock albums (or getting injured: YOU DECIDE!), and averaged 37.6 yards on 29 punts (Rauch punted 22 times). Young will rock, roll, and serve as starting Appalachian State punter this year. Backup Adam Kassouf punted 5 times in 2006, for a crappy average of 32.4.
Returns – Senior Wide Receiver Dexter Jackson will handle returns, and ASU’s website touts him as “One of the fastest players in all of college football.” He was all-conference at the position last year.

App. State is a very good I-AA team, but a I-AA team nonetheless. They gave N.C. State a hard time last year, but N.C. State is not Michigan (they went 3-9 last year). An experience-heavy team won’t be as intimidated as you might expect, so this one should be a little closer than you’d think.

Posted under Analysis