Yes, I’m writing a preview for a lacrosse game. That’s dedication, homes.

The Texas Longhorns captured the #16 seed in the MCLA National Tournament, granting them the right to face #1 overall seed Michigan. Hooray Texas! So, how did the Longhorns get to this point, and what should we expect from them on Tuesday?

Texas earned their bid to the MCLA Tournament by winning the Lonestar Alliance, a conference composed, predictably, mostly of teams from Texas. They are 16-3 entering the Michigan game, with the losses coming to SMU, Chapman, and Illinois (Michigan fans might recognize two of those teams – more on that later). In the LSA Playoffs, they gained revenge on SMU in the semifinals before defeating the Mean Green of North Texas in the finals. Judging by the fact that their auto-bid was for the dead last spot in the tournament, and no other team from the conference managed to make the field, it’s safe to say that the LSA is not one of the stronger conferences out there.

Chapman and Illinois, as hinted above, are common opponents for the Wolverines and Longhorns. Michigan fared better, to say the least. Against Chapman, Michigan played in front of a crowd of 2500 fans in Chapman’s own house (which, coincidentally, only has a listed capacity of 2000). On the road in a hostile environment, the Wolverines were able to mount a second-half comeback and take a 13-10 victory. When the Longhorns played Chapman, it was at a neutral site in San Diego, and the Panthers were able to hold Texas to just 4 goals all game, winning 14-4. In their respective games against the Illini, the situation is somewhat similar. Texas lost a 10-7 home game to the Illini, while Michigan came away with a 12-5 neutral-site victory (Lake Forest High School is closer to Illinois, and in their own state, but it is also the alma mater of Wolverines Anthony Hrusovsky and We McGowan). So, based on common opponents, Michigan is the better team. Of course, performance against common opponents is far from a perfect metric, but when Texas was essentially dominated by the teams, while Michigan did the dominating in their matchups, it’s a testament to perhaps a different level of team ability.

Texas had 7 players named to All-Conference teams. Freshman Attack Mid Johnny McKnight paced the team in scoring, with 42 goals and 11 assists on the year. He was named 1st-team All-LSA and is an All-American candidate. Joining him on the first team was Senior Defenseman Max Atherton. Three Longhorns landed on the second team. Senior Attack Evans Swann was the team’s second-leading scorer, with 37 goals and 15 assists, while sophomore midfielder William Lawson was third on the team with 23 goals and 24 assist. Joining them was senior defensman Mark Anderlik. Making all-conference honorable mention were Junior Attack Doug Boyer (38 pts) and Senior Midfielder Alex Kroviak (26 pts). The main man in goal for Texas was Senior Towers Wilen, who allowed 6.9 goals per game, and saved 59% of the shots he faced.

The game takes place at 4PM (local, 6PM Eastern) on Tuesday at Dick’s Sporting Good Park. If you aren’t able to make it to the Denver area (which I assume is the case for just about everyone), you can follow play-by-play on GameTracker at the Lacrosse Website, or on Twitter @UmichLacrosse.

Posted under Other Sports

With the 2009 football season looming a mere 4+ months away, it’s as good a time as any to take a first look at Michigan’s upcoming schedule, and determine whether the teams the Wolverines will face this year should get better or worse (or remain the same) from last year to this. I also reserve the right to be completely wrong.

Western Michigan
2008 Record: 9-4 (6-2 MAC)
Key losses: S Louis Delmas, LB Austin Pritchard, WR Jamarko Simmons
Key returning players: QB Tim Hiller, RB Brandon West
Projection: Same. Sure, teams lose players to the NFL every year, but it’s not fair to the Broncos (nor would it be to basically any MAC team) to assume they’ll be able to replace a second-round pick in the secondary. However, the offense should really continue trucking behind the QB play of Tim Hiller. The Broncos should be about the same as they were last year, though they’ll rely even more heavily on a high-flying offense to make up for a much weaker defense.

Notre Dame
2008 Record: 7-6 (0-1 Syracuse)
Key losses: WR David Grimes, S David Bruton
Key returning players: QB Jimmy Clausen, RB Armando Allen, WR Golden Tate
Projection: Up. Based on roster composition alone, the Irish should be pretty rockin’ this year. One impoortant caveat: you could say that about the last two years as well, and they were somewhere between terrible and mediocre over each of the previous two seasons. Is Charlie Weis just one big, fat FAIL, or will he start to get the talent he has assembled to perform? There’s no excuse (lol book title/disingenuous motto) for the Irish to not beat up on most of their schedule this year.

Eastern Michigan
2008 Record: 3-9 (2-6 MAC)
Key losses: RB Terrence Blevins, WR Tyler Jones, LB Daniel Holtzclaw, S Jacob Wyatt
Key returning players: QB Andy Schmitt, WR Jacory Stone, LB Andre Hatchett
Projection: Up. The Eagles return some key pieces, though they also lose some important ones, the upgrade at the head coaching position appears to be a substantial one. Eastern was terrible last year, save the upset of Central Michigan in their final game of the year, and even anything approaching competency would be a leap in the right direction.

Indiana
2008 Record: 3-9 (1-7 Big Ten)
Key losses: RB Marcus Thigpen
Key returning players: QB Ben Chappell, QB/WR/? Kellen Lewis, WR/CB Ray Fisher
Projection: Same. You can tell the Indiana coaching staff is really grasping at straws in an effort to not get fired at the end of this year. They’re moving key players around (2nd-leading receiver Ray Fisher to corner, best offensive weapon Kellen Lewis all over the field, etc.), and completely revamping their schemes (reports say they’ve almost exclusively worked out of the pistol this spring). If it doesn’t work, Bill Lynch and co. are probably going to get the axe.

Michigan State
2008 Record: 9-4 (6-2 Big Ten)
Key losses: QB Brian Hoyer, RB Javon Ringer, S Otis Wiley
Key returning players: LB Greg Jones, WR Mark Dell
Projection: Down. The Spartans were beneficiaries of a bad Big Ten and some good luck last year. They were more like a 7-6 team than the 9-4 that they actually went. Take away 3 of their 4 most important players (the fourth is Jones), and they should be worse. Take away that luck, and they’re just a team. Adam Rittenberg will still predict that they win the National Championship.

Iowa
2008 Record: 9-4 (5-3 Big Ten)
Key losses: RB Shonn Greene, DTs Mitch King and Matt Kroul,
Key returning players: WR Andy Brodell, LBs Pat Angerer and Jeremiha Hunter, QB Ricky Stanzi
Projection: Same. The Hawkeyes lose arguably their three most important players in Greene (no, Rittenberg, you can’t just baselessly say “I think Jewel Hampton will be at least as good as they guy who won the Doak Walker Award”) and the defensive tackles. However, they upgrade slightly at almost every other position, and assuming they can stay healthier than they have in the past couple years, they should be about as good as they were in ’08. Of course last year, they were something of an anti-MSU, and lost a couple games they shouldn’t have. The Hawkeyes will be about the same quality of team, but the record may improve.

Delaware State
2008 Record: 5-6 (5-3 MEAC)
Key losses: QB Vashon Winton, RBs Chris Strother and Kareem Jones, LB Kevin Conner
Key returning players: DB Avery Grant, WR Laronne Moore
Projection: Down, down down. For a team that wasn’t even good to begin with, losing 3 of your top 5 tacklers, your 4-year starter at QB, and your top 3 running backs can be little other than a recipe for disaster. Delaware State is a true 1-AA cupcake, and will be even worse this year than they were in 2008.

Penn State
2008 Record: 11-2 (7-1 Big Ten)
Key losses: WRs Derrick Williams, Deon Butler, and Jordan Norwood, 3 offensive linemen
Key returning players: QB Daryll Clark, RBs Evan Royster and Stephfon Green, LB Sean Lee
Projection: Down. The Spread HD worked in 2008 because Clark was on-point all year, and the Lions had the skill position talent on the outside to force defenses to spread the whole field. With Clark tailing off in the last few games (albeit due to injury, perhaps), and the OL and wideouts gone, PSU won’t be the offensive force that they were last year. Defensively, the return of Sean Lee should help in the middle. However, the top 3 defensive ends left, and #4 is out for the season with a torn ACL.

Illinois
2008 Record: 5-7 (3-5 Big Ten)
Key losses: LB Brit Miller, CB Vontae Davis, WR Will Judson
Key returning players: QB Juice Williams, WR Arrelious Benn, LB Martez Wilson
Projection: Same. Like Iowa, the record might improve, but the team will be about as good in 2009. The offense should really click with a senior Juice Williams and junior Arrelious Benn, though you could have said the same last year (and the Illini were awesome at times, just horrifically inconsistent). The defense should take major steps back with its best two players, LB Brit Miller and Vontae Davis, gone and the third best player, LB Martez Wilson, doing things like getting stabbed in a bar during the offseason.

Purdue
2008 Record: 4-8 (2-6 Big Ten)
Key losses: QBs Curtis Painter and Justin Siller, RB Kory Sheets, WRs Greg Orton and Desmond Tardy, LB Anthony Heygood, S Torri Williams
Key returning players: S Joe Holland, QB Joey Elliott
Projection: Down. Purdue sucked last year, and nearly all of their best players are leaving town because their eligibility has expired (everyone but Siller) or because they cheat on exams (Siller). Couple all that with a transition to a new offensive scheme and a plan to rely on several true freshmen despite their lack of guru approval, and Danny Hope’s first year in West Lafayette may be a difficult one. There could be a coaching upgrade as Wilford Brimley had been mailing it in the past couple years, but there is basically no talent for the Boilers to work with.

Wisconsin
2008 Record: 7-6 (3-5 Big Ten)
Key losses: RB PJ Hill, TEs Garrett Graham and Travis Beckum, LB DeAndre Levy, LB Jonathan Casillas
Key returning players: QB Dustin Sherer, WRs David Gilreath and Nick Toon, LB Jaevery McFadden
Projection: Up. The Badgers were a team that lost plenty of games they shouldn’t have, and the important question for tham is whether that was bad luck or the horrifically bad coaching ability of Bret Bielema. The early appearances are a bit of both, so the Badgers should be a bit better, but not by leaps and bounds. Hill wasn’t even Wisconsin’s best RB for much of the year, and Sherer was the better QB, despite Allan Evridge starting the year under center. Simply getting the right pieces the ball more often should help. I think Bielema has a definite ceiling, especially with players he has recruited and coached for four year.

Ohio State
2008 Record: 10-3 (7-1 Big Ten)
Key losses: RB Beanie Wells, LBs James Laurinaitis and Marcus Freeman, CB Malcolm Jenkins, WRs Brian Robiskie and Brian Hartline
Key returning players: QB Terrelle Pryor, RB Dan Herron, CB Chimdi Chekwa
Projection: Down. The Buckeyes really should have been awesome last year, and might have been if Terrelle Pryor had started the whole year, and not been a true freshman. Alas, this was the case, and OSU’s last best chance at a national title for the next couple years leaves town with Beanie Wells and James Laurinaitis. Regardless, the Buckeyes are never going to fall completely off the map as long as Jim Tressel is the coach, so there’s a definite floor for their team. either way, they’ll take a significant step back in 2009.

Posted under Analysis, Football

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on the Sooners of Oklahoma at 5:50 PM tonight on CBS in the second round of the NCAA tournament. The game takes place in Kansas City, Missouri at the Sprint Center.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

Oklahoma is going to be a big favorite in this game, as should be expected of a 2-seed going up against a 10-seed. The Sooners are better than Michigan in nearly every facet of the game. In fact, the only area in which Michigan is expected to be better is not turning the ball over themselves. This means the Wolverines absolutely must hold onto the rock (and they did a decent job against Clemson), and hit the shots that they have open. Of course, the paint is going to be a very troublesome area for Michigan, as even Clemson’s non-all-everything players were able to get theirs and more from the lane. Oklahoma’s advantage in rebounding is surprisingly small to me, especially following the dismal performance on the defensive glass against Clemson. KenPom predicts a 73-67 Clemson win in a 65-possession game.

EEK! Blake Griffin! Who is the last guy that this Michigan team, what with their small size and inability to match up well in the paint wants? Why, a center who happens to be the leading candidate for most Player of the Year Awards! DeShawn Sims and Zack Gibson’s ability to defend Griffin without fouling too much is of paramount importance in this game. Because of that, I expect to see a lot of 2-3 zone. The only other Sooners I know off the top of my head are Griffin’s “big” brother Taylor, and that point guard with the hideous hair decisions on both head and chin.

Yeah, so this is a really, really bad matchup for Michigan. I want to delude myself into thinking Michigan can win, but there’s no way I can convince the rational side of me. The success of the 2-3 zone is encouraging, and Oklahoma’s smaller rotation (only 7 players get significant playing time) certainly helps. Considering Griffin has been beat up of late, suffering a concussion against Texas toward the end of the regular season, and getting flagrantly fouled Thursday against Morgan State, the Sooners may wish they had spent more of the year developing depth. However, I’d rather predict a Michigan loss and be pleasantly surprised when they win than predict a win (foolishly) and be disappointed and wrong if they lose. So yeah, Michigan might be able to make this one close, but I really see this as a matchup of doom.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on the Tigers of Clemson at 7:10 PM tonight on CBS in the first round of the NCAA tournament. The game takes place in Kansas City, Missouri at the Sprint Center.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

Clemson is favored by just about every imaginable source handicapping the odds of the game, so there must be a little more to these teams than a fly-by tempo free analysis. Michigan leads 5-4 in terms of categories with an advantage, though the Tigers have more total letters, with multiple-letter advantages in 3 categories. Michigan’s effective field goal percentage is going to be important in this game, so the Wolverines hope to shoot more like they did against Iowa than they did against, say, Illinois. Michigan’s ability to hold onto the rock (about which more in a second) should also play a big role in this game, and both teams are stellar on their end of the deal in that regard. KenPom predicts a 74-69 Clemson win in a 66-possession game.

The Tigers are a good matchup for Michgian in one key way: they aren’t very big. Whereas Michigan has struggled going against tall teams like Illinois and Michigan State, the Tigers start a 6-9 center (the same height as DeShawn Sims), and won’t be significantly bigger than Michigan at any position other than the 4, where Zack Novak will have to keep Trevor Booker, the leading rebounder for Clemson, off the boards. Outside of the starters, only one player (Junior wing David Potter) gets truly significant playing time, so the Tigers aren’t partilcularly deep, either. How have the tigers found most of their success this year? Forcing the opponents into turnovers using a 1-2-1-1 full-court press on defense. Michigan will need to be able to hang onto the ball against that pressure, leading some to speculate Kelvin Grady might see more playing time than we’ve become accustomed to of late.

Clemson is certainly a better team than Michigan, and they had more success in a better conference. However, John Beilein and Oliver Purnell have built up reputations of sorts for themselves in the NCAA tournament: Beilein does well, Purnell does poorly. Still, making it to the dance was a huge accomplishment for this Michigan team, and asking them to win one as an underdog might be too much to ask. Clemson will probably take the win (though again, I’m shocked at how close these two teams’ tempo-free profiles actually were), and the Wolverines will have to wait until Year 3 of the John Beilein era for their first tournament win.

Posted under Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on the Illinois Fightin’ Illini tonight at 6:30 PM (EDT) in Indianapolis. The second-round Big Ten Tourney game is important to Big Dance seeding, though the first-round win over Iowa has likely solidified a tournament bid. Wolverines fans can see the game on the Big Ten Network.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third. The stats are only through the regular season, where KenPom’s data comes to an end.

When Last We Met…

DeShawn Sims and Manny Harris (though he was Michigan’s lone scoring threat in the second half, more on this later) both struggled against a lineup boasting size much better than the Wolverines (The Illini are, on average, an inch and a alf taller than Michigan. This is a bigger deal than it sounds). The since-marginalized Kelvin Grady and Laval-Lucas Perry kept Michigan in the game in Assembly Hall. Michigan’s offense, entering its “dark period” of the season, managed almost no second half offense, and the Wolverines lost the game, despite holding a halftime lead.

Since Last We Met…

Michigan went from “damn good nonconference team” to “meh” conference team, going 6-9 the rest of the regular season until the BTT tourney win against Iowa. The offense (and, for quite some time, defense) went dormant for much of the year, but has reemerged recently, to give Michigan fans some hope that John Beilein may indeed be all he’s cracked up to be. DeShawn Sims, crappy the last time these two teams met, has been ridiculously good in the last two games.

The Illini went 8-6 in the remainder of their conference schedule, though their biggest win was a home win against Purdue back in the beginning of February. They have lost their last two games (they had a bye in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament), and come into this game having gone cold, especially considering they have choked away late leads in two games against Penn State in their last 5. Also, Chester Frazier got hurt, which is very important.

And…?

Michigan is in the tournament at this point, barring absolute catastrophe in other conferences’ tournaments. However, this game is certainly important for improving their seeding. Michigan went through a rough stretch at the beginning of the conference season, but they’ve mostly snapped out of it, excepting the horrifically-officiated game at Iowa. Illinois has been solid all year, but they’ve fallen off somewhat towards the end of the year. This is where the important stuff kicks in:

Chester Frazier, an offensive non-factor but ridiculously important piece for the Illini defense, got hurt this week, and is not expected to play against Michigan. Though Manny wasn’t the primary liability for Michigan against Illinois the second time around (DeShawn was), if he’s freed up at all, he’ll draw an additional defender away from his teammates, giving all of them more open looks if Frazier doesn’t play, or even if he’s limited in any significant way. This is very good for Michigan.

Taking into account all the above factors, in addition to the fact that home court advantage for Illinois (and just about every team in the Big Ten) is far more important to their team than is home court advantage for Michigan, I think the Wolverines have a pretty good shot. All that said, I still am not confident about the Wolverines leaving Conseco with a win.

KenPom doesn’t make predictions for the conference tournaments (primarily because they aren’t listed on the teams’ schedules). To Vegas, Michigan is a single-digit dog – 2.5 points at last check – at the neutral site, and that prediction sounds pretty good (accuracy-wise, not what I’m hoping for) to me.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on the Iowa Hawkeyes tomorrow at 2:30 PM in Indianapolis. The first-round Big Ten Tourney game is crucial if Michigan wants to return to The Big Dance, and Wolverine fans can catch it on ESPN2.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

When Last We Met…

In perhaps the most poorly-officiated game of the year (and that’s saying a TON. Actually, the Minnesota game might have been slightly worse, but the bad calls were distributed evenly between the two teams and didn’t greatly affect the game’s outcome), Michigan had a regulation victory cruelly ripped from their hands by shockingly incompetent officiating, and the Wolverines sealed their own fate in overtime. Manny Harris was benched for the entire extra session, Michigan couldn’t hit a shot (or take any other than contested 3s) and the Wolverines lost by double-digits. Iowa managed to take the game without their bigman, Cyrus Tate.

Since Last We Met…

Michigan has picked up huge wins over Purdue (at home) and Minnesota (on the road), while dropping an away game to Wisconsin in between. Michigan, who looked to be dead in the water after losing to Iowa (again, under questionable circumstances), has played itself back into tourney contention.

Iowa dropped games to Michigan State, Northwestern, and Ohio State before knocking off Penn State in Carver-Hawkeye, and putting a severe dent in the Nittany Lions’ chances of dancing. Cyrus Tate has returned to action, though he certainly isn’t at 100% effectiveness. In what could be the last game of his college career, I presume Tate will give it all he has.

And…?

Though it certainly didn’t feel like it after the big win against Minnesota, Michigan absolutely must come away from this game victorious if they want the tourney dream to remain alive. Cyrus Tate has been back on the court for the Hawkeyes, which should improve them a bunch. However, Iowa is playing for little more than a chance to spoil somebody’s season, whereas Michigan’s motivation is making their first NCAA tournament in 10 years. Beating Illinois in the next game certainly wouldn’t hurt, but a win over Iowa is absolutely crucial.

KenPom doesn’t make predictions for the conference tournaments (primarily because they aren’t listed on the teams’ schedules). To Vegas, Michigan is a single-digit favorite at the neutral site.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on the Minnesota Golden Gophers today at Noon (Eastern, 11AM local). The game, which is, like, super-important for tournament chances, can be seen live from The Barn on the ESPN machine.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

When Last We Met…

Michigan gave fans hope for a tourney berth (the one they’ve been dangling in front of us on a string attached to a fishing pole for much of the year), by blowing out Minnesota in a game that wasn’t even nearly as close as the 12-point margin would indicate. Zack Novak blew the roof off Crisler from distance, and the rest of the team wasn’t so shabby themselves. Manny was limited with some foul trouble, and Sims wasn’t a huge factor from the paint (see: Minnesota’s enormous, shot-blocking big men), but everyone stepped up to get the job done, including Kelvin Grady.

Since Last We Met…

Michigan dropped road games to Iowa and Wisconsin, sandwiched around beating Purdue in Crisler Arena. They have gotten generally better on offense (mostly on account of hot shooting days against the Gophers and Boilermakers), while also getting slightly better on defense (mostly because they owned the Gophers in Crisler).

Minnesota won home games over Northwestern and Wisconsin, while dropping a roadie to Illinois. The defense has improved significantly in that short range, while the offense, a point of complaint for Gophers fans for much of the year, has continued its slide. Perhaps importantly for this game, they’ve turned the ball over more than they had been, and forced fewer turnovers by opponents than they had been prior to the Michigan game. Their defensive rebounding percentage has improved ever so slightly from “abysmal,” and they’ve managed to maintain their #1 block percentage in the intermediary.

And…?

If Michigan can win this road game, they nearly have a berth locked up, unless they choke one away in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament. If Minnesota can win, they probably have earned themselves a berth as well. Needless to say, this game is huge for both teams. Sadly, I don’t see the Wolverines coming home with a win, especially considering their struggles away from home this year. HOWEVA, that isn’t to say all hope is lost. An inconsistent team can lose to anybody, but they can also beat anybody.

KenPom predicts a 66-61 Minneosta win in a 63-possession game. He gives Michigan just a 28% chance of emerging with the win in Williams Arena.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on the Badgers of Wisconsin at 2PM today (Eastern time, 1PM local). The game can be seen live from the Kohl Center on the Big Ten Network.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

When Last We Met…

The slide began. The Wolverines dropped a 12-point game on their home floor, in which Zack Novak was easily the team’s MVP. Michigan was down the entire game, and by double digits through most of the second half. The game was at least as much of a blowout as the final score indicated.

Since Last We Met…

The Wolverines’ once-sure tourney bid has declined into a bubble that has moved inches closer to bursting ever since the demoralizing Badger loss. The team has struggled on offense since losing to Wisconsin, and instead has recently re-invented itself as something of a defensive unit (maybe not a stellar one, but good enough to win some games). Good wins like Illinois and Purdue have been interspersed with losses like Iowa and near-losses like Indiana. A 10-2 start has turned into an 8-9 slide ever since.

Wisconsin started out the season very strongly, but has also gone on something of a slide lately. They seem to have turned it around as a 6-game losing streak flipped over to a 5-game winning streak before succumbing to the Spartans a week ago in their last outing.

And…?

Both teams need this win to enhance their tournament resumes. If Michigan can come away with a big road win, they might be just one win in the Big Ten Tournament away from clinching their first ticket to the Big Dance since 1998. The Badgers are in similar situation, and have the home-court advantage in this one, a big advantage. Wisconsin is now solidly in the tournament, but a losing streak to end the season could be devastating.

KenPom predicts a 66-58 Wisconsin win in a 58-possession game. He gives Michigan just a 20% chance of emerging with the win in the Kohl Center.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on conference foe Purdue tonight at 9PM. The game takes place in Crisler Arena (if you have the opportunity, go. I’m sue there are plenty of tickets available) and can be seen on ESPN.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

When Last We Met…

Ridiculous Manny Harris ejection, team loses composure and game.

Since Last We Met…

Michigan has had spurts of brilliance (of course, most of them didn’t result in wins) and not-so-brilliance. Purdue has kept chugging along, getting away with being cheap players defensively, and have beaten up on some fairly high-quality teams, like Michigan State.

The Wolverines have pretty much maintain their rankings in tempo-free land from the previous meeting, and Purdue has gotten a little better offensively, while maintaining their lofty defensive standing.

And…?

I predict pain. The first half of the away game with Purdue should serve as an encouraging sign, but I question this team’s mental state following the Iowa debacle. A loss tonight would pretty much ensure a need to win multiple games in the Big Ten Tournament in order to make the Big Dance. Otherwise, reserve those NIT tickets.

KenPom predicts a 64-61 Purdue win in a 65-possession game.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on conference foe Iowa tonight at the awkward start time of 5PM. The game takes place in Carver-Hawkeye Arena, and can be seen on Big Ten Network.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

When Last We Met…

Cyrus Tate didn’t play for the Hawkeyes, and the Wolverines left Crisler Arena with a dominating victory. Manny was Manny, DeShawn was DeShawn, and this was one of the first glimpses that Michigan fans got of CJ Lee-as-defensive-specialist, a role that has seen his playing time increse dramatically over the last few games. The roleplayer that stepped up in that game was Zack Novak, who drilled a few shots from the outside, and did his scrappy undersized white guy thing. The final score of 64-49 was even a little closer than the game felt.

Since Last We Met…

Michigan’s offense has been on a fairly continuous downward spiral. Part of that is better competition, and part of it is simply a young team with very little depth. Two things are encouraging though, and they are an improvement on defense and a stellar offensive performance against Minnesota, a team that has relied on its own defense lately. If the offensive renaissance can become a trend, rather than a one-time deal, Michigan fans will feel much better about the rest of the season.

Iowa has gotten slightly worse in most respects, largely due to Cyrus Tate’s continued absence from the team. Tate played some minutes in Iowa’s recent game against Purdue, but his ankle is still not nearly 100%, and it’s unclear whether he’ll even play, much less be the effective player he is when healthy. Guard Jeff Peterson has also battled injuries of late, and it’s unclear whether he will play.

And…?

If Tate and Peterson are both out, or even limited in a big way, this is a game the Wolverines have no business losing. Even if the two play, Michigan needs this win for their tournament hopes to stay alive in any big way, while Iowa’s season is mostly lost, unless they can scrape together an NIT bid over their last 5 games.One key factor to note: The Hawkeyes have had 8 days of rest for this game, allowing them to prepare in-depth for anything Michigan might throw at them, and also giving them a little time to get healthy.

Despite Michigan’s (slightly) improved play of late, and Iowa’s implosion (2-9 in their last 11), KenPom predicts a 59-58 Iowa win in a 56-possession game. The stakes are obvious, and Michigan fans should tune in to hopefully watch their Wolverines get one step closer to a return to the NCAA tournament.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball