Image from Ezteams.com

St. John’s
February 22, 2009 1pm
Red McEwen Field (USF Campus)
Tampa, Fla.
Media:  Audio and  Stats
Home Team: St. John’s
Probable Pitchers: Eric Katzman (LHP, 0-0) vs Nick Luis (LHP, 0-0)
Michigan Record vs Opponent: 3-3
Last Series/Game: Michigan 12 – St. John’s 17, March 2005

I want to preface this with a little something: the St. John’s Baseball page is by far the worst for information. Here I am working up a preview just weeks before the season, and the sports information department has done nothing further than updating the schedule for the teams. Up until Thursday, the site also had a Windows Media Player on auto start on every page. Was it ever annoying to have Coach Kim Barnes Arico start an interview every 20 seconds. Luckily, the Red Storm installed a new video player as of Friday… after I stopped needing their website. Along with this update, it appears they have actually put some information on the team up… the DAY BEFORE THE SEASON STARTS. This team was the BigEast Champion last year, and this is as excited as they get?

So onto baseball. St. John’s is the first of three 2008 tournament team Michigan will face in the next few weeks. St. John’s has been a beacon for northern schools lately, posting three straight 40 wins seasons (generally good enough to qualify any team for the NCAA tourney). Last year, St. John’s received the lone at-large bid given to northern mid-majors with a 41-14 record (20-7 in BigEast). They won the regular season BigEast title but slipped in the conference tournament, leading to Louisville taking the BigEast automatic bid to the NCAA tournament. This year the Red Storm are predicted to finish quite a bit lower (4th in the BigEast Coaches’ Preseason Poll), but they do return seven offensive starters, two members of the starting rotation, and a majority of their bullpen.

Stars

Carlos Del Rosario Image from RedStorm.com

St. John’s returns this year with quite the offense, returning 5 of their top 6 hitters from last season. Carlos Del Rosario will be the big bat in the middle of the lineup to keep your eye on. Last year he batted .347 with a team high .563 slugging percentage as a All Big East First Team left fielder. Del Rosario lead the team in runs scored with 38.

Del Rosario was the second highest batting average on the team, right after returning junior center fielder Brian Kemp (.360). Kemp is also a threat on the base paths. He has lead the team in steals in each of the last two seasons. Last year he had 16 steals in 21 chances. Kemp is one of those pesky batters that hardly ever strikes out and tends to get hit by pitches. He was hit 12 times last year accounting for half his total walks.

The next big returner is senior catcher Danny Benedetti, who last year batted .342 with 14 doubles. That is damn good for a catcher in any league. When behind the plate, Benedetti isn’t all that strong. Last year runners stole 19 bases and were only caught 18 times. His pass ball numbers aren’t overwhelming, 5 over the whole season. If we get on base, expect him to be tested, especially if we face a right handed pitcher (more about this later).

The Red Storm’s leading RBI producer (45 on the year) returns this season in 1B/OF Paul Karmas. As a freshman last year, he tied for the most at-bats on the team (218), lead the team in total hits (68), and doubles (17). He’s thought to be sticking to just first base this year.

Sophomore Greg Hopkins also returns to take over third base (he also spent time at first base and DH). Last year, Hopkins posted a .304 batting average with 12 doubles and 5 home runs (highest of any returning starter). I fully expect these five players to make up the first 5 batters in the lineup.

Other Position Players

Gino Matias will be the returning starter at second base. The senior is a small second basemen at a listed 5’7″, which likely means even less. Despite his limited strike zone, his walk to strike out ratio is 11:31. That’s a lot of strike outs for a little guy. His batting average was only .280 last year, but he was second on the team with 42 runs scored. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him bat lead off or in the 9-hole as someone to set the table for the big bats at the top of the order. Matias does tend to try to steal more than most others on the team. Last year he was 9 for 14.

Junior Tim Morris, left handed first baseman and outfielder will be working to solidify himself in the lineup last year after being used sparingly. In 40 games, Morris made 25 starts. His .283 batting average wasn’t much to write home about, but he did have 3 home runs, 3 triples, and 6 doubles on the year. With a full season’s worth of at-bats, he could have some much more impressive numbers. What kept him out of the starting line up last year was his walks to strike out ratio, 4:35. That’s just unacceptable unless you’re Sammy Sosa.

Shortstop is a black hole currently. Junior Mike Martinez may have a shot, but there are two freshman, Matt Wessinger and Joe Pannick, who may be given a shot too. The two freshman have a size advantage on Martinez, but there isn’t much out there to indicate who will take over the position.

As for DH, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Karmas or Morris take this spot opening room in the outfield for sophomore Scott Ferrara. Ferrara had limited use last year, but he does appear positioned to be a big contributor next season. The other option would be junior backup catcher Joe Witkowski. This would provide slightly more consistency between games as Benedetti will definitely DH in games he does not start.

Pitching

This will be short and sweet. The Red Storm lost all 4 of their primary starters and their closer. Woo Rebuilding Year!

Miguel Valcarcel, Image from RedStormSports.com

St. John’s does return a total of 10 starts (by 3 players) from last year, 8 of which were by Senior Jason Cole. Cole was 3-1 last year with a 4.72 ERA. He held the second highest opponent batting average on the team at .271.

The highest opponent batting average was .309, by Senior righthander Rich Armento. Armento had one start last year, but it was out of desperation due to lack of arms available. Armento had a team worst 7.66 ERA last season in just 22.1 innings pitched.

The wild card for the Red Storm is Puerto Rican pitcher Miguel Valcarcel. The righty was 0-0 over 36.1 innings last year including one start. His 3.44 ERA is tops among returners. There has been some talk of him becoming the team’s ace this year, but that has been just speculation as far as I can tell. He had started quite a bit as a freshman, 2 years ago, with some success.

Michigan will be facing  lefty Nick Luisi.  Luisi is a redshirt senior who hasn’t pitched in over a year for St. John’s due to some major surgery on his arm.  Luisi is one of the two team captains this year for the Red Storm, but we don’t really know what to expect out of him.  For his career, Luisi is 5-3 witha  3.36 ERA over 21 appearances (7 starts).  I’d try to get more information on him, but St. John’s website is horrible for information.  The last update on his player profile is 2005.

Semi-Relevant Reading:
Challenge Overview (RedStormSports.com, don’t click on the weekly release, it’s the release from last year’s NCAA regional)

Posted under Baseball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on the Golden Gophers at 7PM tonight on BTN. The game takes place in Crisler Arena, where some tickets are still available.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website), wherein the Gophers are “O” for “opponent”:

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

Michigan and Minnesota are very even teams, with pushes in 3 categories, and only 3 in which there is more than a single-letter advantage. Of course, there is the fact that Minnesota did it against a much easier schedule. However, both teams have struggled in conference play, and it’s hard to make any meaningful comparisons about schedule strength without conference-only numbers. Michigan wants to force the Gophers into turnovers and rebound as many of their own misses as they can. If the Wolverines were to be able to get to the line (which they won’t, because Big Ten refs hate Manny Harris), it would also help out their offensive efficiency. KenPom predicts a 65-63 Wolverines win in a 63-possession game.

Minnesota has a fairly talented team, and if there’s one area Tubby Smith has excelled, it’s bringing in a lot of talent. Guard Lawrence Westbrook takes up most of the Gophers’ possessions, and is the team leader in drawing fouls. Fellow guard Al Nolen is actually the leader in getting to the line for Minnesota, and he leads the team in assists. One thing that the Gophers do very well is get blocks (they lead the nation), and they have three players (Damien Johnson, Ralph Sampson III, and Colton Iverson) in the nation’s top 40. Sampson, a 6-11 center, also leads the team in offensive rating.

After starting the season 16-1, the Gophers have dropped 5 of 8, with two of the wins nailbiters over Indiana (the other was a blowout of Illinois). They are certainly sliding now. The Gophers should be vulnerable, but they’re fighting for their tournament lives, just like the Wolverines. Michigan needs three more regular-season victories for a chance at making the tournament, and the two games against Minnesota are going to be very important unless they pull a big upset somewhere (home to Purdue or @Wisconsin).

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Image Courtesy of Bullfanshop.com

South Florida

February 20, 2009
1pm
Jack Russell Stadium
Clearwater, Fla.
Home Team: Michigan
Media:  Audio and Stats (via MGoBlue.com)
Probable Pitchers: TBA vs Chris Fetters (0-0)
Michigan Record vs Opponent: 4-6
Last Series/Game: Split in 2001 (1-1)@ USF

Overview

This Friday, the Michigan Wolverine baseball team will open up the 2009 season with the South Florida Bulls in the Big10/BigEast Challenge, held in Clearwater, FL. South Florida is currently ranked as “another team receiving votes” in several polls, including Collegiate Baseball Newspaper’s Fabulous 40, approximately 67th overall. The ranking places them 2nd in the BigEast, one place ahead of last year’s BigEast Champion St. John’s. The BigEast Coaches have voted USF as the 2nd best team in their preseason poll. With all the experience returning this year, including a solid starting rotation and two potential closers, USF is expected to make a run at the NCAA tournament this season.

Last year’s South Florida team was 31-27 overall (14-13 in BigEast play), which was good enough for a 6 seed in the conference tournament. USF managed to upset 3-seed Notre Dame in the first round of play, but eventually lost to 2 seed Cincinnati, forcing them to the losers’ bracket. In the losers’ bracket, USF beat 7 seed West Virginia, then lost again to Cincinnati again. Last year’s team was one dominated by freshmen and sophomores, many at key starting positions.

The Stars

The biggest returning stars for the USF team are center fielder Ryan Lockwood and super-utility player Stephen Hunt. Lockwood (bats left/throws right) was a Freshman All American (Rivals, Baseball America, Louisville Slugger, National Collegiate Baseball Writer’s Association, and Ping! Baseball) last year, posting a .415 batting average overall (.454 in conference play). The All-BigEast preseason outfielder is currently riding a 30-game hitting streak (cut short due to a season ending broken finger against St. John’s). Lockwood is also a threat on the bases, stealing 12 in 16 attempts. He had been batting in the three hole during most of the season despite his low power numbers. Lockwood is an early candidate for BigEast Player of the Year and, like our very own Chris Fetters, the 2009 Brooks Wallace Award Watch List (pdf of list). Following Lockwood in the order, usually in the fifth hole was Stephen Hunt (bats left/throws left), a 7th round draft pick in 2007. Hunt was the designated hitter in most games he played in. Hunt’s role on the team was much like Zack Putnam of the recent Michigan teams. Hunt, while predominantly the DH, also worked as a setup man and occasional closer for the team; he also played some first base. Hunt batted .331 for the season (.323 in BigEast play) with 3 home runs and 38 runs batted in.

Ryan Lockwood, Freshman of the Year, Image from GoUSFBulls.com

The Bulls also feature one of the nations top freshmen this year. Shortstop Sam Mende (bats right/throws right), 40th round pick by the Yankees this year, will likely start, replacing three year starter Addison Maruszak. Mende was a four year All-State player at Clearwater Central Catholic HS in Clearwater, FL. This game will be played just a few miles from where Mende played high school ball. Mende was the team captain from his sophomore to his senior year, leading his team to the state semifinals his sophomore year, and the championship his junior year. Mende was also the hero of the USF “Fall World Series,” a intrasquad scrimmage held during fall practice.

The Returners

USF has five other returning starters on defense. Senior catcher Trey Manz (bats left/throws right) will be the one of the most important contributors to the Bulls team this season. With so many underclassmen pitchers, Manz has put in great effort this offseason to become a better player. Coach Prado gave an internet interview last semester saying, “I am happy that [Trey] Manz gained 20 pounds and is in great shape.” There had some speculation surrounding last year’s commitment from Miami catcher Adriano Neito, who reneged on a commitment to play for the Washington Nationals. Some had expected him to take over the catching duties from Manz this season. From Coach Prado’s interview, it appears Manz continued to push himself to get better in order to seal his spot as starting catcher.

Also returning will be sophomore third (formerly second) basemen Jonathon Koscso (bats right/throws right). Koscso, one of only two players to start every game for the Bulls, was primarily the nine hole hitter, posting a respectable .276 batting average. Two other outfielders also return in senior Mike Consolmango (bats left/throws left) and junior Chris Rey (bats right/throws right). Consolmango is a 4 year starter with a .264 batting average in 141 games. Rey is a second year starter with a .274 batting average and 35 RBIs.

The last returning starter is first/third basemen Brandon Smith (bats left/throws right). Smith missed the end of the season last year (about 1/3 of the season) with a “right arm injury,” but managed to bat for a .288 average with 22 RBIs. USF lacks a true third basemen on their team, so he may be relegated to play third while Hunt plays first.

Hunt’s services as a reliever will be needed less, so he may be used at first more often. If that doesn’t happen, expect Smith to start at first base. In this case, the Bulls may move Koscso to third base, opening room for junior Peter Brotons (bats left/throws right) at second base. Brotons is a junior college transfer with great success at that level on the Dayton State Falcons. Another option would be redshirt freshman Jordy McGillis, who is listed as just an “infielder.” Going into the offseason, the idea was to have true freshman Sean Buckley (bats right/throw right) make starts at first base, but unfortunately, Buckley suffered an injury that warrants the use of a medical redshirt for his freshman year.

Pitching

Pitching is the true strength of the Bulls team, in particular, the rotation. Last year’s rotation was led by then freshman Randy Fontanez (RHP) and Derrick Stultz (RHP). Fontanez had thirteen appearances (all starts), logging 81.1 innings and 58 strikeouts. His five wins was good for a tie for the team lead. The second major starting pitcher returning was Derrick Stultz, who primarily was the Sunday starter for coach Prado. Stutlz was the most consistent pitcher for the Bulls last year, making 10 starts and 2 relief appearances, stretching 64.1 innings. His 3.08 ERA lead the team, while his 53 strikeouts ranked third. Stutlz also boasted South Florida’s only complete game last season against the BigEast Champion St. John’s. We will probably face on of these two pitchers to start. There is a chance we may see Sophomore righthander Matt Stull, who ended the season strong, earning a team tying high of five wins.

Randy Fontanez, Image from mnmathletics.com

South Florida also features a decent bullpen. Last year’s closer was then sophomore/now junior Shawn Sanford (RHP) who was 5-5 for the year with 11 saves in 33 appearances (46.2 innings). Sanford has collected quite a few accolades in his time with the Bulls including: drafted in the 43rd round of the 2006 draft, NCBWA Stopper of the Year Watch List in 2007, Roger Clemens Award Preseason Watch List – 2008, Brooks Wallace Award Preseason Watch List – 2008, NCBWA Stopper of the Year Preseason Watch List – 2008, Rivals.com 2008 Preseason All-Conference Team – 2008, and NCBWA Stopper of the Year Midseason Watch List – 2008. Even with this success, Sanford was used as a starter to end the 2008 season. He made 2 starts to end the year, neither was very successful. He has been mentioned by Coach Prado as in the mix for the remaining weekend starter position.

To replace him at closer, Coach Prado plans to use Louisville transfer Andrew Salgueiro (Jr RHP). Salgueiro transferred to USF in 2007 when Coach Prado changed jobs (markedly strange as Louisville made the tournament that year). At Louisville in 2006, Sagueiro pitched 18 innings over 16 appearances, striking out 20. Playing the Valley League this summer, he struck out 28 in 23.2 innings. Something to keep in mind with Sagueiro is despite striking out so many, he also gives up many many runs. His ERA in his year at Louisville was 4.50, this summer it was 4.18. He appears to be a high risk/high reward type of closer, which isn’t uncommon in college. South Florida has several other pitchers capable of filling in during the middle innings, but not many have had great success.

The remaining returners in the bullpen all have ERAs ranging from 4.63 to 10.18. Being early in the year, I don’t expect too many of the starters to go that deep into games. Hopefully Michigan will be able to knock the starters out early and get into the middle relief.

Other Links of Various Relevancy

2009 Bulls Magazine (pdf)
Interview with Coach Prado (The College Baseball Blog)
USF Website Preview (gousfbulls.com)

Obligatory USF picture for no other reason than this blog has lacked tits, don’t ever expect them again:

Posted under Baseball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

The Wolverines take on Just Northwestern at 3PM Sunday in Evanston. The game can be seen on Big Ten Network.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

When Last We Met…

The Wolverines took home a 68-59 victory in Crisler Arena that really wasn’t as close as the final score would seem to indicate. Michigan completely owned the boards on both ends (one of the few times they’ve been able to do so this season). More telling was the Wildcats’ shooting, particularly from 3-pt land. They were 10-27, including 4-13 from Craig Moore. DeShawn Sims and Kelvin Grady(!) led the god guys in scoring, and Manny Harris had a relatively quiet game, outside of his game-high 12 rebounds.

Since Last We Met…

Michigan’s ability to shoot the rock has continued to wane. Their ability to rebound it has increased, however, especially on the defensive end. Unsurpisingly, given the nature of their valiant efforts in losses to UConn and Michigan State, they have continued to slide in overall offensive efficiency, while their defensive numbers have gotten much better. Kelvin Grady,th Wolverines’ second-leading scorer the first time around, has been basically benched by John Beilein. The Wildcats have wins against Indiana and Chicago State and a loss to Illinois, which are basically neutral (excepting, of course, the total FAIL of their collapse against the Illini). They have a win against Wisconsin (positive) and a loss against Iowa (very, very negative) in that stretch as well. The Wildcats have gotten better at shooting in the meantime, but have also allowed opponents to shoot much, much better. Northwestern’s overall efficiencies on both ends have gotten worse.

And?…

If Michigan wants to win, they can’t count on Craig Moore to shoot poorly, especially in his own house (whatever the insignificant Northwestern basketball venue is called). They should certainly exploit their advantages in rebounding and overall athleticism. Getting to the line (especially off the offensive glass) should be the name of the game. Two big intangible factors will come into play in this contest: 1) Northwestern’s complete collapse against Illinois (especially with just a couple days’ turnaround), and 2) Michigan’s extended rest period, a situation which has served them well so far this year. Still, Michigan has struggled on the road this year, and though they have plenty of experience against the 1-3-1, Northwestern can beat anybody on any given night. On the other hand, they can also lose to anybody. Sound familiar?

Posted under Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on the Spartans at 7PM tonight on ESPN. The game takes place in a sold-out Crisler Arena.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

As has been the case for much of the past decade, Michigan State is simply a better team than Michigan. They have many of the characteristics of classic Tom Izzo-coached teams: they rebound well, they get to the line decently well, and they do everything else just well enough to win the vast majority of their games. Since Michigan’s slide began against Wisconsin, the Wolverines have fallen off in nearly every category. However, they look to have turned it around (at least a bit) over the past two games. The keys for each team will be hitting their shots and not turning the ball over. Michigan has disadvantages in the first category and advantages in the second on each end of the floor. KenPom predicts a 71-67 Spartans win in a 65-possession game.

The Spartans are led by sophomore Kalin Lucas, who has been very efficient in both dishing it to his teammates and not turning the ball over. Another important piece for the Spartans, however, is Raymar Morgan. The junior power forward has missed the last two games, andisn’t expected to play tonight. If he’s missing, that could help decrease Michigan State’s size/rebounding advantage, if only slightly. Chris Alen is the team’s designated sniper, but he’s been struggling from 3 a bit of late. Will he be able to turn it back on against the hated rival?

For as much better a record as Michigan State owns, I’m surprised the Spartans’ tempo-free profile is this close to Michigan’s. MSU is one of the few teams that hasn’t had AT LEAST 3-letter differentials in rebounding on both ends of the floor, and they are certainly one of the closest teams to Michigan in terms of getting to the line. However, I still think the Spartans are too good for Michigan, and the lone game in this rivalry goes MSU’s way in 2009.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on UConn at 6PM tonight on ESPN. The game takes place on the Huskies’ home floor in Storrs.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

I’ll keep this brief, since Michigan is going to get beaten down by the #1 team in the country. 1 fact of note: Michigan’s team profile improved in every single respect following the Penn State game except for offensive rebounding. They still have huge deficits to UConn in most of the Four Factors, though the discrepancies in overall offensive and defensive efficiency really aren’t all that bad.

KenPom predicts a 77-59 Huskies win, and I think it’ll be a little closer, but still something of a blowout.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

The Wolverines have a chance to exact revenge on Penn State tonight at home. The Wolverines will try to get a home victory on BTN at 7PM.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

When Last We Met…

Various Nittany Lions were absolutely on fire from he floor, and DeShawn Sims was the only Michigan player who could do anything from the field (LLP was 0/6 from 3, for example, and Manny was 2/11 from the field). Michigan got sent home from State College with a 58-73 beatdown.

Since Last We Met…

Michigan briefly halted their slide against Northwestern, but got beaten up at the hands of Ohio State and Purdue. Zack Novak and Manny Harris were ejected (fairly and unfairly, respectively) in those two games, and Michigan’s offense and defense are both headed into the tank. The one area in which Michigan has improved is rebounding, but that hasn’t been enough to net them any wins. The Wovlerines, preiously great at not turning the ball over, have startedmaking up for lost time in giving the ball away, and the shooting has gone from very good to aboslutely pitiful.

The Nittany Lions, on the other hand, have caught fire. They struggled throughout most of their game with Iowa, but pulled together at the end for a huge come-from-behind win, then they beat Michigan State in East Lansing.

And it Means…

Sine the long break before OSU wasn’t enough to spur the team to a win, the even longer break this time can hopefully help them. With Zack Novak taking a breather for the Purdue game, and Manny getting one for nearly the entire second half, the team should be well-rested. The key will be for the shooting to return to respectable levels, if not where it was early in the season. Limiting easy baskets by Penn State, and not sending them to the foul line will also be key. PSU has advantages in most tempo-free cateogires, so the current Michigan team will have to revert to the non-conference Michigan team is they want to win.

Ken Pomeroy predicts a 68-66 Wolverines victory in a 62-possession game, and gives Michigan a 56% chance of winning. Since NCAA tournaments dreams have basically become unrealistic, the Wolverines absolutely require a win here to stay alive, or they’re at least playing for NIT seeding.

Posted under Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan has a chance to best the conference’s preseason favorite as they take on the Purdue Boilermakers today at 1PM. The game takes place in west Lafayette, and can be seen on CBS.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

Purdue is a very good defensive team, and one of the more well-rounded squads Michigan has faced on the year. They’re a horrible matchup for a Michigan team that is struggling to produce on offense, and especially one that is struggling to hit its shots. The Boilers are #1 in the nation in forcing their opponents into missing their field goal attempts. Another sign of a tenacious defensive unit is opponents’ turnovers. The Boilers have been pretty good at forcing the opponent to give up the ball. Michigan, on the other hand, has been good at holding onto it, save for a few bad perfformances (most notably Wednesday night in Columbus). Michigan will face a tough challenge in getting the offense going. Ken Pomeroy predicts a 73-60 Boilermaker victory in a 66-possession game, and gives Michigan just a 9% chance of winning.

The key players for Purdue are E’twaun Moore, Chris Kramer (#29 in the nation in steals and last year’s conference defensive POY), and Robbie Hummel, who is now coming off the bench after coming back from an injury. Hummel is an efficient offensive player, as is big man JaJuan Johnson.

Before the end of the Ohio State game, I thought it might be time to reduce Laval Lucas-Perry’s minutes, as he’s clearly struggling on the floor right now. With Zack Novak suspended for a game though, LLP will probably have to play at least as many minutes as he’s been getting. There should also be a lot of Zack Gibson in the game (not necessarily a good thing), and Manny will probably have to play the 4 a lot as well.

Things look grim, but if the Wolverines somehow manage to pull off a huge conference road victory, they may be able to scratch their way back into the tournament discussion.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

The Wolverines have a chance to exact revenge on Ohio State tonight in Columbus. The Wolverines will try to turn the tables on the Buckeyes from the last game, a 7-point loss for the home side just 11 days ago. The game can be seen on Big Ten Network tonight at 6:30.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

When Last We Met…

BJ Mullens had a ridiculous game, going 7-9 from the field, with nearly every one a dunk. Evan Turner got to the line 14 times (albeit many of them at the end of the game, when Michigan was just trying to extend the contest). William Buford had 15 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 steals. Despite all of this, Michigan was in the game until near the very end, and even led for pretty big portions of the second half.

DeShawn Sims struggled (a surefire bad sign for Michigan chances of victory), but Manny Harris was easily Michigan’s player of the game. The only other player to hit more than one 3-ball for Michigan was Stu Douglass, who appears to be getting hot for Michigan at the right time.

Since Last We Met…

The Wolverines split games with Penn State and Northwestern, defeating the latter. Their shooting has continued to decline, mostly on account of a horrid performance against the Nittany Lions (but also a poor effort from 3 against the Wildcats). Opponents’ shooting, meanwhile, has gotten better, as Michigan either has terrible defense or terrible luck (a combination of both, if you ask me, and I’ve discussed it in more depth elsewhere) of late. Michigan’s rebounding has improved (offensive slightly; defensive significantly), but their ability to get to the line has waned, thanks to Manny Harris’s inability to get a foul called on an opponent. Overall, the Wolverines’ offensive and defensive effeciency have both fallen. Sims hit bottom against Penn State, but returned to form against Northwestern.

In big losses to Illinois and Michigan State, the Buckeyes’ shooting has gotten worse, but they have also locked down on opponents’ field goal attempts. They’ve started forcing more turnovers, and have turned the ball over much less themselves. So what explains drops in their offensive and defensive efficiency numbers? The rebounding on both ends of the floor has gotten worse, for one. Other than that, most stats appear to be about the same (or better) for the Buckeyes.

And it Means…

Michigan is coming off their second-consecutive 4-day break, after previously having only 3 days’ rest before their last three games. Michigan is a much better team off long breaks, with wins against UCLA, and every Big Ten victory except that against Indiana off at least four days without a game (this is notable, because the 3-day rest before the Indiana game could be considered a factor in the terrible performance there, if we’re drawing a correlation). With the long break, Michigan’s seeming recovery on offense against Northwestern, and John Beilein’s uncanny ability to make adjustments the second time he faces an opponent that he lost the first game to, Michigan should be a little closer in this game. Jevohn Shepherd has gotten playing time in the past two contests, and he might get some tonight, if for no other reason than to absorb fouls in the post. I think this game should end up closer than the first.

Ken Pomeroy predicts a 67-62 Buckeyes victory in a 62-possession game, and gives Michigan just a 29% chance of winning. If the Wolverines are to harbor any realistic dreams of making the NCAA tournament, stealing one in Columbus tonight would be an important start.

Posted under Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

The Wolverines take on Just Northwestern at 8PM tonight in Crisler Arena. The game can be seen on Big Ten Network.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

Northwestern, despite its reputation and unceremonious start to the season (namely, an 0-4 start in the conference), has reeled off two straight victories over top tiered competition in wins against Minnesota and AT Michigan State. The Wildcats are similar to Michigan, in that they shoot a bunch of threes and play a 1-3-1 defense. That defense was the key to their victory over Michigan State, as they were forcing turnovers left and right, and Michigan State had one of their worst shooting nights of the year. With Michigan facing the 1-3-1 every day in practice, do they have a slight advantage against it? Since Michigan’s slide began (which, in all honesty, began as early as the Wisconsin game, and at least as far back as the nail-biter over Indiana), the Wolverines have been falling fast down the rankings in terms of shooting percentage and opponents’ shooting percentage. Are these issues that can be corrected? For the most part, Michigan has simply been missing open looks, and opponents have been turning that offensive offense into confidence on their end of the court, where they’re making shots both open and ridiculous (Devan Dumes and Danny Morrissey excelling at the latter). If the long week of practice helps Michigan snap out of their funk, this game may not be as ugly as it first appears. If Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims can both play well tonight (something that hasn’t happened in quite some time), and a third player (one of Novak, LLP, ad Harris) can step up, that will go a long way to solving Michigan’s offensive woes.

Northwestern is led by guard Craig Moore, who leads the team in minutes played and eFG%. Sophomore guard Micheal Thompson is also a sharp-shooter for the Wildcats. The primary big man is junior Kevin Coble, who stamds 6-8, and has range not only in the paint, but also all the way out to three-point land. He could be considered something of a less-athletic DeShawn Sims. Most importantly, he gets very few offensive rebounds, but leads the team in defensive rebounding (among those who play significant minutes). The two most important players to shut down are Moore and Coble, but with Michigan’s luck, that just means some unheralded role player will step up and shoot the lights out.

With the three-game slide behind them, and a difficult slate up ahead, this game has become a must-win if Michigan wants to have any chance to win the tournament. If the long week of practice (and playing the role of underdog) can help Michigan, they may just be able to pull one off.

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