Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Tonight, for the second time in 10 days, Michigan will take on Illinois in Big Ten basketball action. The game is a 8:30 PM Eastern  tonight in Urbana-Champaign, and can be seen live on Big Ten Network.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

Ohio State is a pretty good team, despite not getting a ton of love from the polls right now. Their offense depends on hitting their shots, and the defense is reliant on forcing opponents to miss their shots, as well as getting them to turn it over. Surprisingly, they don’t have a huge rebounding advantage over the Wolverines like I would have expected. Ken Pomeroy predicts a 66-64 Michigan win in a 62-possession game. He gives the Wolverines a 59% chance of winning the game.

Ohio State has had a rash of injuries and player defections this year, making them somewhat thin (depth-wise) outside the paint. Inside the paint, they have 7-1 freshman BJ Mullens. If the Illinois game is any indication, Michigan should have plenty of trouble matching up with Ohio State’s men inside. Fortunately, the Buckeyes don’t have nearly the depth in big men (the next tallest player is 6-9, and Kyle Madsen gets very little playing time). The most-used players for Ohio State are Evan Turner and Jon Diebler, two sophomores who play nearly the entire game for OSU each time out.

The Wolverines face another tough battle, and hopefully the home-court advantage can propel them to a win.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Tonight, for the second time in 10 days, Michigan will take on Illinois in Big Ten basketball action. The game is a 8:30 PM Eastern  tonight in Urbana-Champaign, and can be seen live on Big Ten Network.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third. In free throw rate, Michigan has earned the as-yet-unprecedented 4th letter.

Illinois is a good basketball team. Of course, Michigan somehow managed to knock them off less than two weeks ago, so this game certainly isn’t unwinnable. Still, home court advantage is huge in the Big Ten, and from the looks of things, Michigan may have just gotten lucky in Crisler last time. The key when Illinois has the ball is limiting the number of god shots the Illini get. Michigan must keep the Illinois effective field goal percentage down if they want a chance to win. The Illini have a slight advantage in this area, but that includes ridiculous shooting nights by the likes of Savannah State and Indiana, where the shots weren’t really open, they just happened to fall. On the other end of the court, Michigan must get some good shots of their own. The offense works best when DeShawn Sims is able to shoot not only inside the lane, but also from midrange to open up the arc for the likes of Laval Lucas-Perry and Zack Novak. Manny Harris must continue trying to get to the line, and not get frustrated if he doesn’t get the calls early in the game. When that happened in the Wisconsin game, he unwisely kept trying what wasn’t working instead of dishing to more open teammates. Turnover margin should also play a role in this game. Michigan was forcing turnovers out of the 1-3-1 and man looks against the Hawkeyes, though I think the 1-3-1 is a better turnover-producing set. Of course, playing the 1-3-1 is heavily contingent on making shots (as pointed out after the Indiana game by commenter Mr. Ostrander), so again eFG% is important. Ken Pomeroy predicts a 70-61 Illinois win in a 60-possession game. He gives the Wolverines a 16% chance of winning the game.

Illinois is led by Trent Meachem, Demitri McCamey, Chester Frazier, and Mike Davis. Each of those four guys plays 70% or more of the team’s minutes, so getting them in foul trouble – which again leads me to believe Michigan should try to score in the lane in this game – would be helpful. Meachem is the team’s biggest three-point threat, while the 6-10 Davis is primarily an inside scorer. Newly-eligible (following his transfer from Kentucky) is Alex Legion, who has gotten plenty of playing time in Big Ten games. He also forced Zack Novak to get 6 stitches last time these teams squared off.

Call me crazy, but I think with Illinois’s size (3 players over 6-10, and another at 6-7), I think Jevohn Shepherd may get a bit of playing time in this game, if only for his athleticism on defense and to absorb a few fouls to keep DeShawn Sims and Zack Gibson out of trouble. Michigan should also be able to get by on their quickness against a bigger Illinois team.

The Wolverines are the underdog yet again, and this game isn’t a must-win, but it certainly would be nice to get the first 2-game season sweep of the year.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on conference foe Iowa tomorrow morning at 11:30 in Crisler Arena (10:30AM in Iowa City – how’s that for an advantage?). The game can be seen on Big Ten Network.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

On paper, this looks to be a very tough game for Michigan. Each team shoots a lot of threes, though Iowa makes many more of them. After a horrific outing at Indiana, most of the Wolverines’ offensive stats have gotten slightly worse. Surprisingly given the first half against the Hoosiers, the defensive rankings have actually gotten better. Looking at the gameplans, Michigan’s offensive performance will be reliant on their ability to make shots. Given their struggles against Indiana, this may be no easy feat. However, the Hawkeyes, like the Wolverines, field a very short team – and that was before Cyrus Tate hurt himself playing against Minnesota on Thursday. Perhaps the Manny Harris method of getting to the basket will be a little more effective, and he’ll be able to draw a foul or two (and actually get them called, for once). Iowa’s lack of size (and 3-point-heavy style) is evidenced by the fact that Michigan actually has a fairly sizeable advantage in rebounding the Hawkeyes’ misses. Iowa will make plenty of those shots though, and Michigan will have to take care of the ball (something they’ve certainly shown they can do) in order to get a win. The right column of the ledger above doesn’t tell the whole story: Michigan was close to getting a third “M” in the turnover column, a second in defensive rebounding(!!), while the Hawkeyes just missed getting a second in their advantage shooting the ball. Ken Pomeroy predicts a 63-60 win in a slow (56 possession) game.

Iowa’s key players are guard Jeff Peterson, who leads the team in assists and getting to the free throw line, freshman forward Matt Gatens, who leads the team in offensive rating and three-point shooting, and forward Cyrus Tate, the team’s lone senior. The 6-8 Tate is by far the team’s best rebounder on both ends of the floor, and he suffered an ankle injury in the first half against the Golden Gophers Thursday. He didn’t return to that game, and even if he does play tomorrow, it’s unclear exactly how effective he’ll be. If he’s limited, Michigan actually has a shot to outrebound their opponent for one of the few times this year – which would go a long way towards helping win.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on conference foe Indiana tonight at 6:30 in Bloomington. The game can be seen on Big Ten Network.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

Indiana is really, really bad this year. I’ll allow Spartans Weblog to bring the visual aid:

IU’s defensive efficiency is near the bottom of the conference, but the story for the Hoosiers this year has been their utter ineptitude on offense. This is understandable when you have no players, and that is certainly the case for Indiana. In this particular game, Michigan has 100+ ranking-place advantages in 5 categories, and Indiana only leads the Wolverines in those areas you’d expect Michigan, and perimeter-oriented team, to be weak. Each team’s effective field goal percentage should play a significant role in determining who wins this game. The Wolverines hold huge advantages in this area on each end of the floor. Ken Pomeroy predicts a 72-62 Michigan victory, with the Hoosiers only given a 17% chance to steal a win.

There is no way to spin this game as anything other than a must-win for Michigan. Indiana is a sorry squad this year, and Tom Crean has some major rebuilding to do inside Assembly Hall. One key factor to keep in mind is the home-court advantage. The Wolverines have played only one true road game this year, a 5-point loss to Maryland. That was over a month ago, and Beilein’s crew will have to adjust to playing away from Crisler.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on conference foe Wisconsin today at 2PM in Crisler Arena. The game can be seen on ESPN2.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

For the first time in a while, Michigan has a distinct deficit in multiple categories. Many of these are predictable for a perimeter-oriented team: Wisconsin is much better at rebounding and Michigan doesn’t get to the free throw line very often. Defensively, Michigan doesn’t force as many turnovers as one might hope to give them an advantage over Wisconsin. This is somewhat odd because the 1-3-1 is designed to force the opponent to give up the ball, but the Wolverines have been going with more man-to-man defense of late, so that may be a partial explanation. Overall, Wisconsin is a well-rounded team, ranking in the top 100 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Michigan is still the favorite though, and Ken Pomeroy predicts a 67-62 Wolverine triumph, with a 70% chance of victory.

In the game plans, the main area that is strongly correlated with both Michigan’s and Wisconsin’s efficiencies is Wolverine effective field goal percentage. Since Michigan has an advantage in it (however slight it may be), the Wolverines may have an advantage in performing well on offense today. The turnover rate for Wisconsin may also play a role. The Badgers have an advantage of nearly 100 places in the national rankings. Regardless, this is definitely the most evenly-matched game Michigan has played in a while.

Of course, with a team in the national spotlight, and one in Michigan’s own conference, the key players will be more known to Wolverines fans, and there are bound to be more of them. Joe Krabbenhoft, Marcus Landry, Trevon Hughes, and Jason Bohannon are all key players for the Badgers. Each has played in at least 73% of available minutes (the next closest player has less than 50%). Landry has star power, and is most mentioned in the national media, but it is Hughes who leads the Badgers in offensive efficiency, eFG%, and free throw rate. The point guard also (obviously) leads the team in assists, and really makes things go for Wisconsin.

This should be the first real test for Michigan in quite some time (since Oakland? Duke even?), and it’s time for the Wolverines to put up or shut up. Has this Michigan team been putting in a lackadaisical effort because they knew they would beat inferior teams anyway? Or are they really just not as good as we think/hope? A big win today would be a great start to making a run through conference season, and hopefully into the tournament.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on winless North Carolina Central tonight at 7PM in Crisler Arena. The game can be seen on Big Ten Network.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

NC Central is dead-last in the KenPom ratings, so its entirely understandable that Michigan has pretty significant advantages in every area. The Wolverines have their first 4-letter advantage of the year, and it’s in an important category: their offensive efficiency against NCC’s defensive efficiency. The only areas in which Michigan has just one-letter advantages are turnover rate on offense, defensive rebounding (astoundingly, they have more than 100 places in separation between the teams in Michigan’s offensive rebounding), and free throw rate on offense. Ken Pomeroy predicts a 96-41 Wolverines victory, with 0% chance of an upset in a 66-possession game.

Taking a look at the game plans, Michigan’s effective field goal percentage against NC Central’s defense should be a good indicator of how the team’s overall offensive performance will go. Considering Michigan has a huge advantage in that area, it should be a good day for the Michigan offense. On paper, this looks to be a great offensive day for Michigan. The one area NCC is fairly good in is blocking opponents’ shots, but that will likely not play a huge role against a perimeter-shooting team like the Wolverines.

NCC has three key players, all of whom have played more than 80% of the possible minutes so far this year. Stevy Worah-Ozimo is the tallest player on the team at 6-9. He is the team’s center, and hasn’t attempted a three-point shot yet this year. Freshman Jamar Briscoe is a Grady-sized (5-10) point guard, and leads the team in assists. The other key player is Vincent Davis, who, at 6-2, would normally be considered a guard, but he may be more of a wing player on such a size-challenged team (3rd shortest in Division I, ahead of only Nebraska and SIU-Edwardsville, the second of which I believe is a data-entry error). The rest of the minutes are filled fairly evenly by the other 5 players on the team.

With the gaps in talent and depth between these teams, it would be surprising if NC Central gave MIchigan much of a game. Of course, stranger things have happened, so be sure to check out the game at 7 tonight on BTN. If nothing else, it should provide an opportunity to see Michigan look like world-beaters.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan takes on Florida Gulf Coast University tonight at 7PM in Crisler Arena. The game is not on television, but can be seen on BigTenNetwork.com

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison  (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third I’m still getting used to a 100 ranking being anything other than awful, so keep in mind there are some 344 teams in Division I – and we’re playing #344 in a week and a half!

So, uh, yeah. Florida Gulf Coast isn’t exactly what you’d call a “great team.” The only areas in which they have an advantage over Michigan are those you’d expect: Rebounding and Michigan getting to the line. With a perimeter-oriented zone-defense team, Michigan can give that up.Pomeroy predicts an 82-54 win for Michigan.

Michigan’s effective field goal percentage is strongly correlated with their offensive efficiency, and FGCU’s ability to restrict opponents’ eFG% is correlated with their defensive efficiency. Considering Michigan was one ranking away from having an advantage of 100 places over FGCU, I’d say it looks to be a good offensive day for Michigan. Without needing to get to the rack to score, I doubt Michigan will spend much of the day driving the lane. Florida Gulf Coast’s offense doesn’t appear to rely on hanging onto the ball, and that’s a good thing for them: they’re terrible at doing so. Look for Michigan to exploit FGCU turnovers, hopefully leading to a lot of fast breaks.

Finally, and most importantly, Reed Baker returns to Crisler Arena. The Rainmaker is second on the team in minutes played, shooting 41.2 eFG% from the floor, and has nailed 84.8% of his free throws. Guard Delvin Franklin and Wing Derrick O’Neil are the stars for FGCU, and Rainmaker plays a key supporting role.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

God, this is going to hurt…

Michigan has been a disappointment this year without a doubt. However, their compatriots to the South have been something of a disappointment as well, though not to nearly the degree of the Wolverines. Ohio State entered the year returning nearly everyone off a team that had played for the national title the past two years, yet got destroyed in Los Angeles, and went down on their home turf to Penn State. that said, Michigan doesn’t stand a real chance…

Offense
Terrelle Pryor’s ascent took place a year earlier than expected, but take place it did. He is now the triggerman for Ohio State, and does just about everything from running to passing to just handing the ball off to Beanie Wells. Speaking of Wells, he’s done it all for Ohio State – on the rare occasion he was completely healthy. The two areas of weakness for the OSU offense are the wideouts and offensive line. The line has ranged from bad to mediocre all year, with brief forays into the area of “passable.” They are the most culpable party for each of Ohio State’s losses. Their pass blocking has improved since the USC game, helped in large part by Terrelle Pryor’s ability to move the pocket and escape pressure. However, the run blocking still leaves something to be desired, though Pryor and Beanie can make do with the holes that are opening up in front of them. The wideouts are talented but inconsistent, with problems ranging from drops to missed cuts.

Michigan’s defensive strength is the line, which should help them against OSU’s offensive weak point, the O-line. However, many schools have schemed to minimize Michigan’s advantage here (most frustratingly Toledo) with all manner of half-rollouts and quick passes, which are the strength of Pryor’s game, unfortunately. Ohio State also seems poised to attack Michigan’s weak safeties and linebackers. I’ve had nightmares for weeks thinking about the Wolverines’ poor tackling against the Buckeyes.

Defense
The Ohio State defense has been pretty good for most of the year, with a few notable exceptions. Those exceptions include USC, who simply had their way with OSU – on both sides of the ball – and teams with mobile quarterbacks, like Ohio and Illinois. Other teams have been able to move the ball on the ground against Ohio State, however. Through the air, Malcolm Jenkins and a rotating cast of nickel players have shut down opposing passing attacks.

Alas, Michigan has neither the plethora of talent that the Trojans boast, nor the mobile signal-caller of Ohio or Illinois. I don’t particularly fancy the though of Nick Sheridan slinging the ball into the teeth of that Buckeye secondary, either. This essentially boils down to Michigan’s only hope being a healthy Brandon Minor, and a host of short passes (many of them screens) and maybe a guest appearance by Justin Feagin running the zone-read. Ohio state has had their share of missed tackles this year, too, and strong running by the likes of Brandon Minor and Greg Mathews should result in some YAC.

Special Teams
This section hasn’t appeared in any previews so far this year, but the Ohio State special teams have been notable in their boom-or-bust characteristic (sounds familiar, no?). Of course, Ohio State’s ST units haven’t been as volatile as Michigan’s and have been much more heavy on the good things, like blocked punts and returns for touchdown.

Michigan’s main goal in this facet of the game is to not have a punt blocked, and not lose the ball on a return. Playing against a coach like Tressel, special teams play and changing field position should be a huge factor.

Predictions
Michigan’s only passing touchdown comes either in the first quarter or on a screen pass.
Stevie Brown intercepts a pass, but makes enough mistakes in coverage to make up for it.
Michigan keeps this one a little closer than the experts think, losing 31-17.

Posted under Football

Over the course of the year, Michigan fans have seen what the Wolverines have been offering on the field. What they may not be quite as familiar with is their counterpart down South, the Ohio State Buckeyes. Fortunately, I’ve been scouting the Bucks all year for the “Across the Border” series with Buckeye Commentary. What has each game showed us that is relevant to Saturday? Take a look:

Youngstown State
Not much, aside from serving as a stark contrast to Michigan’s opener. The two programs are starting off on a completely different plane, and a dominant performance from Ohio State puts the fear of God in Wolverines fans.

We do know that Michigan fans will probably grumble discontentedly when Terrelle Pryor does something of note against Michigan on November 22.

One area that might actually be relevant is also the offensive line of Ohio state being rather underwhelming. Presumably, however, they will cut down on penalties and other mistakes over the course of the year. Of course, there were also other occasions where the OSU line gave Boeckman about 3 weeks to throw the ball downfield. We’ll see which is more indicative of the actual quality of the offensive line when the Bucks see some better competition.

Again, there are caveats about quality of competition, but OSU was also able to harass YSU’s quarterback all day long.

Ohio
Not much, really. Again, Ohio State faced a team that was nothing like Michigan, and the level of competition was very low. Unless Beanie’s foot injury is a lot more severe than the public currently is aware (which I doubt), Michigan will not see an Ohio State team that is minus its offensive catalyst and best player.

However, the pass protection problems persist from last week. Maybe with a more reliable running threat to take some additional heat off the QB, the Buckeyes will be able to settle down and protect the passer, but for now, I wouldn’t be confident they can do this. Of course, Michigan’s offense is terrible bordering on pitiful, so it is likely that, even if Michigan finds itself with a lead in the Shoe on November 22, Jim Tressel will keep pounding away until 3rd and long. With little threat of Michigan building (or extending) a lead, Tresselball will likely be in full force for the greatest rivalry in all of sport.

The other thing noticed was the success of the Bobcats’ spread offense. Even with a backup quarterback in the game (note: still better than either of Michigan’s starting QB options), the OU offense ran pretty smoothly, carrying an upset bid into the fourth quarter. Of course, Jackson could run and not throw, and Michigan’s QBs can hardly do either. Is OSU the new Michigan in terms of inability to defend the spread? Wolverine fans are certainly hoping so. Also, they are hoping that their own offensive line stops sucking.

USC
USC gave us the blueprint for beating Ohio State: play them when they don’t have the services of their best player, and have more talent than them at nearly every position. OK, so maybe that doesn’t realistically tell the 2008 Michigan Wolverines how they can beat Ohio State, but it does show us that the Buckeyes can be beaten, and handily.

Several flaws with Ohio State’s team were accentuated: the quarterback(s), the offensive line, and to a lesser extent, the play calling. Of course, Jim Tressel always saves his most creative gameplan for the Wolverines, but if nothing else, this has given the Michigan coaching staff an idea of what buttons they can press to stress the weaknesses of Ohio State.

Troy
There are a few key notes that Michigan fans should have taken from this game:
1. Terrelle Pryor is likely to be OSU’s starter for the remainder of the year. The Wolverines had better get some practice stopping a running quarterback.
2. The Ohio State offensive line’s struggles early in the year might speak to an actual problem with the unit, rather than shaking out some early-season cobwebs.

I’m not willing to say that Michigan is likely to beat Ohio State this year, but it is starting to seem like Jim Tressel is approaching becoming a new Lloyd Carr. Letting clearly overmatched opponents stay in a game much longer than they should be, laying an egg on national TV last week with arguably his most talented team ever. Of course, some of these problems will be solved with the return of Beanie Wells, but the trajectory isn’t favorable for The Senator.

Minnesota
First things first, it tells us that the Ohio State offense is far better with Beanie in the backfield. If he can stay healthy through the entire year, OSU shouldn’t have any more struggles like they did in the three game stretch between Ohio and Troy.

It also gives us our first chance to see an opponent that Michigan and Ohio State will have in common in 2008. Sure, you can’t compare boxscores side-by-side, but you can (eventually) see who actually played a better game against the Gophers, taking all factors into account.

Still, Ohio State didn’t look overly physical yet again (though better than they did against Troy), and I wonder if they’ll snap out of it during the course of the season. If not, is it possible that they’ll lack physicality against the Wolverines, or (the more likely scenario) be a little TOO physical and aggressive, either being susceptible to misdirection or liable to commit penalties (the “Sparty, No!” syndrome, as it’s known in Ann Arbor).

Wisconsin
The Ohio State offense is much better when they have both Beanie and Pryor available. Assuming those two are in the game against Michigan, Ohio State will definitely manage to score some points. However, The Buckeyes somehow managed to score less against the Badgers than did Michigan’s dysfunctional offense, so the Buckeyes are far from unstoppable. However, given Michigan’s troubles stopping Illinois, it could be a long night when there are more talented players plugged in.

Defensively, there is going to be yardage available against Ohio State. Michigan’s weakness is in the interior offensive line, and Ohio State’s defensive tackles, while they’re pretty good, did not dominate by any means against the Badgers. The Wisconsin offense also did its best when relying on misdirection, which is essentially the cornerstone of Michigan’s offense.

Purdue
Offensively, the Buckeyes really shouldn’t worry. If the offensive line plays well one game all year, they’ll save it for Michigan. However, there is something of a disturbing trend developing here.

Defensively, the Buckeyes showed what they’re capable of doing if they play up to their potential. If they’re in peak form against the Wolverines, maybe Michigan should just punt on first down every series. Wait – then the Buckeyes might just block it for a TD

Michigan State
If last week showed us that, with a little bad luck and some inconsistency, the Buckeyes are beatable, the game against Michigan State did the exact opposite. Whereas last week the offense sputtered and a blocked punt provided the only points on the day, this week the fumble returns and such were just the icing on a particularly delicious cake in the eyes of OSU fans.

Alas, this is the effort Michigan is mo
re likely to see out of Ohio State (the Wolverines and Buckeyes always get the other’s best effort), instead of the Purdue sleeper. However, Michigan fans can look at the last two Ohio State games and see that it is indeed possible to beat the Buckeyes if they don’t show up to play.

Penn State
Though the Buckeyes have only lost two games so far, a couple teams have given a blueprint for what Michigan needs to do to beat Ohio State. First, stopping the run is paramount. Penn State and USC both did this, and it led to their success. Not letting OSU’s WRs behind the defensive secondary will give Pryor more difficult throws to make, and he has shown that he doesn’t yet have the experience to hit covered guys with regularity. Purdue was an example of Pryor’s occasional freshman struggles bringing the team down, though Ohio State’s defense and special teams still managed to win the game for them.

Of course, the offensive line is Ohio State’s key. If they put it all together for one more game this entire year, it will be against Michigan. Therefore, Michigan likely has to commit a few more guys to stopping the run, and hope that Pryor makes enough freshman mistakes to hold his offense back.

Northwestern
The Buckeye offensive line is bad (a relative term in this case, of course), and probably isn’t going to get any better this year. Michigan will provide the best defensive line Ohio State has seen since USC, or maybe Penn State. Michigan should be able to get into the backfield. However, Ohio State has had success this year because of Wells’s and Pryor’s abilities to make plays even when there are players in the backfield. Michigan has been a terrible tackling team this year. I foresee a pretty good offensive day for Ohio State.

Defensively, Ohio State has shown they are capable of shutting down unconventional offenses – though it sometimes takes them a quarter or two. All year, Michigan has shown they can score – but only in the first quarter. The Wolverines will have to pull out all the stops to get a lead early in The Game if they want to stand a chance. The Buckeyes do face their second of three consecutive shotgun-option offenses this week, however, so they may come out pre-adjusted.

Illinois
Well, considering my prediction above [ed. – OSU pounds Michigan], I don’t think Michigan stands too much of a chance in this game. However, we did learn a couple things (relevant, hopefully) about Ohio State from this game. I’m not sure how many tackles the Buckeyes will be missing against Michigan, though.

First, they are definitely susceptible to the run, especially when there’s an option look mixed in. Michigan has less talent for running that type of offense than does Illinois, but if Brandon Minor is healthy, Michigan should at least be able to move the ball a little bit.

Considering Nick Sheridan will likely start for Michigan, I expect to see something more like the offense against Utah or Northwestern (bad) than against Minnesota (good).

Posted under Football

Coming into this year, Michigan and Northwestern had similar expectations. Both were projected to finish near the upper-middle of the conference, and perhaps even both make it to January bowl games. Of course, things didn’t exactly turn out that way. Northwestern has perhaps exceeded expectations, its only losses so far coming to Ohio State, Michigan State, and… er… Indiana. Michigan’s season has unfolded in the opposite direction. After reaching 2-2 on the season, back-to-back demoralizing losses against Illinois and Toledo initiated a tailspin that halted only this past week, with a win at Minnesota. Next year, look for Michigan to try to replicate the Northwestern model for success (ridiculously easy OOC schedule).

Offense
The ‘Cats are hurting on this side of the ball, with their top two running backs lost for the year. Tyrell Sutton (2005 Big Ten Freshman of the Year) and Omar Conteh (who stepped in for Sutton much of last year, including a 115-yard day against Michigan) will be replaced by sophomore Stephen Simmons and recently-converted WR Jeravin Matthews, a true freshman. Even before the top two went out for the year, Northwestern was near average in rushing, and that production can be expected to decrease without two talented players. In the passing game, Northwestern has relied on both CJ Bacher and Mike Kafka. Kafka has been more dangerous as a runner than a passer in his time filling in for an injured Bacher. Speaking of Bacher, there’s always the Official CJ Bacher Interception Statistic to draw on: when he starts and throws 1 pick or less, the Wildcats win. However, it is unclear exactly how healthy Bacher will be this weekend, though he should be available. Northwestern’s top 3 receivers are Eric Peterman, Ross Lane, and Rasheed Ward. All have seen their production decrease sans Bacher.

To me, it looks like a Minnesota to me. Without a credible running threat in the backfield, Northwestern’s offense looks a lot like that of the Gophers. That, of course, brings up the question of which quarterback starts for the Wildcats. With Kafka, they have a mobile signal-caller that isn’t the passing threat (and we saw how much success Michigan had defending against Justin Siller), and with Bacher, they have… GopherClone. That team spread the field and passed, without much of a run threat (though their offense is based on the RR spread, and we all know that Rodriguez would love to run the ball as much as possible). Either way, it looks like Northwestern’s options are limited. I’d like to think Michigan will be able to dial up a similar gameplan to last week, and trust their guys to man up on wideouts that aren’t as athletic.

Defense
Northwestern partisans have been hailing new defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz as the second coming of Christ. Of course, the pragmatist would note that his early-season numbers were built up against the #111 offense (Syracuse), the #87 offense (Duke), the #49 offense… in 1-AA (Southern Illinois), and the #71 offense (Ohio). Two of Northwestern’s top defenders, Malcolm Arrington and Vince Browne, have been lost for the season. The Wildcats shouldn’t be expected to get tons of stops against any offense with legitimate threats on the ground and through the air.

That brings us to the Michigan offense, whose best threat through the air so far this season has been Steven Threet. When he missed time last week, Nick Sheridan filled in most competently. However, whoever ends up getting the start for Michigan this week will likely be operating without the services of Brandon Minor, who has emerged as Michigan’s best threat of moving the ball on the ground. Michigan’s offense might be something of a mirror image of Northwestern’s at this point, though I think Sam McGuffie and Michael Shaw bring something to the table that Northwestern’s third-string running back may not. However, last week’s performance by the quarterback was probably a one-time deal, and the offense should regress this week.

Other Stuff
On top of injury news, this week may hinge on intangibles more than any other so far this year. Was Michigan’s performance last week the sign of better things to come with gained confidence, or just a one-week anomaly? Will the weather have an adverse effect on either team’s offense? These can’t be accounted for in a preview, however comprehensive it may be (and I’m under no illusion that this is a comprehensive preview).

Predictions
At least 3 (but probably 4) players take snaps for Michigan.
Northwestern has trouble moving the ball on the ground with anyone other than Mike Kafka, but they have a successful game through the air.
Michigan drops one to the Wildcats, 24-10.

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