When I originally previewed Minnesota in the summer, I knew they’d be improved, but I don’t think anyone could have predicted the huge step forward they have taken this year. The Gophers have gone from 1-11 to 7-2, one of the greatest turnarounds in recent history. How have they done it? Mostly through turnovers and taking care of the ball. If Michigan wants to win in the Metrodome tomorrow, they’d best hold on to the rock.

Offense
The majority of Minnesota’s offense goes through QB Adam Weber. Weber is having a so-so statistical year, coming in at 36th in the country in passing efficiency, but it’s what he’s not doing that’s most notable: turning the ball over. Last year, he threw 19 interceptions, and this year he has been picked off just four times. His main target is notable white wideout Eric Decker, who, while nicked up, is expected to play this week. Other notable receivers include Ben Kuznia (also white), DeLeon Eskridge (not white, and also a tailback), and Nick Tow-Arnett (also white, but understandably – he’s a tight end). Aside from Decker, however, it’s not the wide receivers that make the passing game successful, it’s Weber’s distribution that’s paramount. If Decker is still a little banged up, Michigan may be able to take advantage somewhat (he has nearly triple the number of receptions as Kuznia).

In the run game, there were many predictions of doom when Duane Bennett went down against Bowling Green, and was lost for the year. However, DeLeon Eskridge has stepped in and performed admirably. In fact, he’s getting 4.2 ypc, only slightly worse than Bennett’s 4.4, against better competition.Minnesota’s worst rushing games came against Ohio State… Indiana(?) and… Montana State? They’ve gotten worse over the course of the year, and that’s hopefully something the Wolverines can capitalize on.

Defense
The Gophers’ main weapon on defense is the takeaway. They’re currently 1st in the nation in turnovers gained, and 2nd in overall turnover margin. They’re actually at or around middle of the pack by most other defensive metrics, such as rushing defense (53rd), Pass efficiency defense (51st), and total defense (65th), all against a fairly weak schedule. This means that if a team can hold onto the ball, they stand a good chance of moving it down the field against the Gophers. Of course, that means nothing to Michigan, as the Wolverines can’t hold onto the ball to save their collective lives.

The Gophers have faced some fairly anemic offense, but none so bad as that of Michigan. Add in the fact that it is Nick Sheridan expecting to start in place of the oft-injured Steven Threet, and Wolverines fans are likely in for a long day. Of course, turnovers-as-defense isn’t necessarily sustainable, and the Gophers were bad in that respect last year, so perhaps Michigan can get lucky and not turn it over too much.

Predictions
Michigan’s starting QB throws at least 2 interceptions.
Eric Decker cannot finish the game because he is too hurt.
The Wolverines lose the jug, by a score of 31-13.

Posted under Football

When I previewed Purdue in the summer, I didn’t think they’d be a very good team this year. However, the depths of their fall have been a surprise even to me. With a new coach stepping up next year, are we witnessing the end of the “Purdue-as-midtier-team” era? It certainly seems like it. This game looks like Michigan’s best chance to get another win by the end of the year, and injuries may play a key role in this weekend’s matchup.

Offense
Purdue’s offense under Joe Tiller has been characterized as “basketball on grass.” The pass-happy spread attack made Tiller’s career, and he has seen success in West Lafayette, though not so much in recent years. This year, the Purdue offense hasn’t been very good. Throw in the fact that starting quarterback Curtis Painter is not expected to be available and it’s bad new Boilers. By the way, the backup quarterback, Joey Elliott is out too. That leaves OLSM product Justin Siller, who moved back to QB from running back just a couple of weeks ago, to run the offense. Don’t be surprised if there’s tons of Kory Sheets in the gameplan Saturday.

Defense
The Boilermakers’ defense hasn’t been performing well, but they have faced a couple of pretty good offenses in Oregon (whom they held to only 32 points in two overtimes) and Central Michigan (whose production has fallen off slightly this year). Notre Dame managed to put up 38 on Purdue without the help of ridiculous field position, though the Irish did get a defensive touchdown. Regardless, the Wolverines are probably the most inept offense Purdue will face. The Boilers’ talent level is low, however, Michigan should be able to put something together, particularly using the MINOR SMASH offense.

Predictions
Purdue’s offense is held under 250 yards.
Steven Threet doesn’t throw an interception.
Michigan wins 23-10.

Posted under Football

When I previewed Michigan State in the summer, I really wasn’t that enamored with the Spartans. Watching them over the course of the year, they have had moderate success, which may seem to run counter to what I thought about the team. However, in their biggest games, Michigan State has failed to impress anyone. Essentially, they are who we thought they were.

Talking with State News writer Cash Kruth, my opinion of the Spartans still remains pretty much the same: they are a mediocre team, not a good one. Their strength of schedule speaks to this, and against real competition, they have struggled for the most part. Of course, a mediocre team should be able to beat a bad one, namely the Michigan Wolverines.

Offense
The Spartan offense is centered around one player: Javon Ringer. Ringer leads the nation in rushing yardage, with 1179 yards so far this year (Donald Brown of Connecticut has 1174 yards in one fewer game), and he runs for about 150 yards per Spartan contest. The offense is heavily reliant on Ringer, and in his two worst contests, the Spartans have lost for the only two times this season. It is important to note of Ringer, however, that he has 60 more carries than the next-closest player in Division 1-A. He has the lowest yards-per-carry average (4.48) of any player in the top 40 in rushing yardage, and most have him beat by a significant margin.

So why do the Spartans run Ringer so often, if they’re not reaping great benefits every time? Looking at Mark Dell and BJ Cunningham, the wideouts, you’d think that MSU would pass it more. However, when you approach the situation under center, you realize that Brian Hoyer is often as much a liability for Michigan State as he is an asset. Despite having fairly good weapons, including Javon Ringer to take off some of the pressure, Brian Hoyer is 72nd in the country in passing efficiency. This is all despite rarely getting sacked.

So Michigan has a gameplan for beating Michigan State: stop Javon Ringer and force Brian Hoyer to beat you. He hasn’t been able to single-handedly take down a team yet (his best opportunity, at Cal, saw him complete less than 42% of his passes) and is unlikely to suddenly start doing so. Michigan has already beaten a team of this mold, and Wisconsin had a significantly better offensive line, a wider variety of options at running back, and a more robust over-the-middle passing game, which thus far has been Michigan’s biggest problem in coverage.

One other thing to note about the Spartan offense is the turnover rate. As much as Michigan has coughed the ball up this year, Michigan State has had troubles of their own, especially when Hoyer is forced to throw the ball (6-4 TD-int ratio). They had 3 fumbles lost against Ohio State, and two of them were returned for touchdowns.

Defense
MSU’s defense has been at best okay, though strength of schedule again comes into play. Indiana scored their most points of the season against D-1A competition against MSU (29), Cal their third most (38, though the other two higher scores were against Washington State and Colorado State), but they gave up season-lows in point total to Notre Dame (7) and Florida Atlantic (0). The Atlantic game may have been something of an outlier, as their pass-happy attack was unlikely to find success in a monsoon regardless of who they were playing, but results speak for themselves.

The strength of Michigan’s offense is the pass game, like the strength of MSU’s defense is pass effeiciency. However, despite Michigan’s obvious offensive struggles this year, the Wolverine pass game may be one of the best the Spartans have faced so far. If nothing else, there is the biggest array of receiving talent this side of OSU, and if Steven Threet is healthy, the passer shouldn’t be too shabby. Of course, this all goes to hell if Nick Sheridan has to play any significant time. MSU’s secondary is strongest at the safeties (if you consider any position where Kendell Davis Clark is a starter a “strength” – though I admit I haven’t extensively seen him play at safety), so Michigan should have some ability to attack the perimeter on the sideline passes and wheel routes that have thus far been their most successful plays already.

In the run game, Michigan State has no been so successful on the defensive side of the ball. Cal and Ohio State went for over 200 on them, even Eastern Michigan went for 127, Shonn Greene of Iowa tore them up for 157, and only Notre Dame had a really bad day against them, which was partially due to the Spartans getting an early lead, followed immediately by Jimmy Clausen taking 4 bad sacks. The Irish put up only 16 yards rushing, though that came on merely 22 attempts (including sacks). Michigan might be the most anemic rushing attack that MSU has faced so far this season, but the Spartans have shown that, given the chance, a run game can succeed against them.

Michigan’s gameplan will likely be to get the ball to the outside, and get playmakers in space. However, when the run game came to life a bit in the first quarter against Penn State, we saw that Brandon Minor, for all his fumbling troubles, may give Michigan an oportunity to actually move the ball without throwing. A healthy mix of plays, and passing to set up the run a bit, may speak to Michigan’s advantage. As I said earlier this week, Michigan’s offense this year might not be as good as West Virginia’s ever was under Rich Rodriguez, but the man certainly knows how to gash a Dantonio defense either way. He might be able to scheme to keep that trend going.

Predictions
The Michigan offense will reach a new season high in terms of total yardage.
Martavious Odoms will get his first touchdown as a Wolverine.
The Michigan defense or special teams will score on their own, or at least get the ball on Michigan State’s side of the 50 for the offense.
There will be at least 2 “Sparty, No” moments.
Michigan wins, 28-20.

Posted under Football

When I previewed Penn State in the summer, I knew the Nittany Lions would be good. Did I know they’d be this good? Maybe not, but I certainly thought they’d be undefeated at this point in the season. PSU has run roughshod over pretty much every challenger in their way, primarily on the strength of QB Daryll Clark. Michigan would have to pull off one of the biggest surprises of the year so far to even stay within 20 of the Nittany Lions tomorrow afternoon.

Offense
Daryll Clark, perhaps most memorable to Michigan fans for being the second QB knocked out of the game the last time the Wolverines traveled to Happy Valley, has emerged as one of the premier signal-callers in the conference, if not the nation. He is reminiscent of Michael Robinson in directing Penn State’s Spread HD offense: he might not be the most skilled passer in the world, but Robinson proved a few years ago that it isn’t necessary to run a successful offense. The two-headed monster of Evan Royster and Stefphon Green that PSU fans predicted coming into the year has been primarily the Evan Royster show, with Green as more of a backup and situational player. On the wings, Jordan Norwood, Deon Butler, and Derrick Williams return for their 500th year as starters for Penn State. Their distribution of catches is disturbingly even, ranging from 21 to 23. Derrick Williams, with the most catches, has the fewest yards, though part of that may be due to the fact that he’s manning the underappreciated Steve Breaston 2006 role for PSU. The offensive line is doing well itself, having ceded the 12th fewest sacks in Division I-A, and earning the 12th most rushing yards.

For this specific matchup, I would like to hope that Michigan can at least slow down the rushing attack. The Wolverines’ DL is among the best Penn State has seen so far this year, but with the way Juice Williams owned the Wolverines, I don’t think Clark should struggle to get his team moving the ball on the ground. In the secondary, Boubacar Cissoko got some valuable experience last week in place of Donovan Warren, and if Warren returns this week, the corners should be able to be in position to stop the spread. As always, it’s the duty of the safeties and linebackers to strike fear into the hearts of Michigan fans.

Defense
The losses up front have not harmed the Nittany Lions like it seemed like they would early in the year. Chris Baker, Devon Still, and a host of other players have been replaced admirably by Aaron Maybin, Josh Gaines, and others. The one disappointment on that front, however, has been Maurice Evans. After a stellar 2007, he has yet to produce for Penn State this season. PSU’s linebackers have been led by Navorro Bowman. In the secondary, Penn State is in the top 10 in pass efficiency defense, but significantly worse in overall pass defense – that indicates little more than the fact that teams have been forced to pass their way out of big holes against PSU.

Michigan’s offense, if it wants to succeed at all, needs to get on the scoreboard early in this game. Penn State’s defense has succeeded mostly in preventing teams from playing a balanced offensive scheme. Of course, Michigan is unlikely to be able to run against Penn State either way. Martavious Odoms’s return is important, because it gives Steven Threet more ability to pass down the field and open up the run game. The possibility of Terrance Robinson and Justin Feagin finally playing this week also triples Michigan’s number of viable options in the slot.

Predictions
Someone other than Sam McGuffie is Michigan’s leading rusher.
Daryll Clark has at least 2 passing touchdowns and one rushing touchdown.
Michigan keeps it a little closer than expected, but loses 38-17.

Posted under Football

When I previewed Toledo in the summer, it appeared as though they may be one of the very few easy games for Michigan in 2008. The Rockets have gone 1-4 so far, with the lone victory coming against the moribund Eagles of Eastern Michigan. We spoke to Jason Mack of the Independent Collegian to give us the latest on the Rockets, and it doesn’t really look like Toledo should be too great a challenge for Michigan. However, if Michigan has shown one thing this year, it’s that there are no sure things for the 2008 Wolverines.

Offense
The Rockets are 66th in the nation in scoring offense, despite putting up 41 on Eastern Michigan in 54 on Fresno State (in 2 overtimes). They were blanked against Ball State (a fringe top-25 team, but one known for its offense, not stellar D), and put up 16 points in games against Arizona and a 3-score loss(!) to Florida International(!!). Aaron Opelt is the Rockets’ starter, passing for 869 yards so far on 166 attempts (5.23 ypa). Most of his passes have gone to junior Stephen Williams and senior Nick Moore. On the ground, DaJuane Collins and Morgan Williams have gotten the lion’s share of carries. Collins appears to be infinitely better than Williams, averaging 7.42 ypc on far fewer carries than those on which Williams is netting 4.11 ypc. Collins missed the FIU game and was limited against Ball State.

In short, the Rockets aren’t exceptional on offense. They run a pass-oriented scheme with lots of spread formations. Regardless, they haven’t spread the ball around much, and haven’t put up tons of points on anyone. Michigan will be by far the best defense they have faced this year. However, they run a lot of quick passes which may neutralize the Wolverines’ advantage in the trenches.

Defense
Toledo is 89th in rush defense and 109th in pass efficiency defense. This is bad. Considering the competition they’ve played, which includes such offensive juggernauts as Eastern Michigan (to whom they gave up about 130 yards passing and rushing, which is below their season average), and Florida International (to whom they gave up 98 yards passing (40 yards below FIU’s season average) and 141 yards rushing (55 yards more than FIU’s season average) – and still managed to give up 35 points). So, the defense isn’t great. Or good. Or passable.

Michigan’s run game should have another opportunity to get itself moving. We’ll see if that actually happens. If it doesn’t, predict pain for the rest of the year.

Predictions
Michigan gains more fumbles than it gives away(!).
The Wolverines have 3 rushers go over 50 yards.
Michigan wins, 34-9.

Posted under Analysis

When I previewed Illinois in the summer, I said that the Illini would take fairly significant steps back on each side of the ball. With Rashard Mendenhall not longer carrying the rock, Juice Williams’s questionable arm would be thrust into the forefront, and J Leman would no longer be the American Hero of the defense. With no Illinois representative available for a podcast interview ([STUDENT PUBLICATION REDACTED] is the only one to deny such a request so far), we haven’t been able to get much more updated information on the boys from Champaign than from watching their games ourselves, and from what can be gleaned from the internets.

Going into their game against Penn State, Black Shoe Diaries noted that the Illini were a moribund 88th in rush defense, despite facing a couple of gimme games (one of which, against Louisiana-Lafayette, turned out to be not such a gimme), and a Missouri team that does most of its damage through the air. Were they able to turn things around against PSU? Not so much. Penn State picked up 241 yards and 2 TDs keeping the ball on the ground, the best performance against Illinois to date on the year. Brit Miller may be a decent player, but American Hero he ain’t. Michigan is a team whose offensive line has been good in pass protection, but has had trouble blocking for the run. Facing a bad run defense is a pretty good cure for that (see: Michigan v. Notre Dame. Michigan gained 159 yards on the ground despite playing from a huge deficit the entire game). Expect Michigan to have some success on the ground against the Illini. In the passing game, Illinois is doing pretty well on the strength of cornerback Vontae Davis. The junior doesn’t quite shut down his side of the field, but he isn’t far off from it. However, it is also important to note that Chase Daniel and Darryl Clark, both operating spread offenses, threw for 323 and 181 yards against the Illini, respectively. If Michigan’s execution problems can be hammered out a bit, there should be plays available through the air. Overall on defense, however, expect a few changes. The Illini coaches are not pleased with the players thus far in the season, so it’s likely that an athletic linebacker like Martez Wilson may see the bench because he can’t bring himself to play disciplined ball. No matter who starts, the Wolverines will either face guys who have been backups thus far this season, or players who the coaches flatly criticized for not being in position.

Posted under Analysis

When I originally previewed the Wisconsin Badgers in the summer, it appeared as though they would be one of the conference’s top teams, especially if their pass defense was able to step forward despite the loss of NFL early-entrant Jack Ikegwuonu. When we spoke to Derek Zetlin this week, we learned that a lot has changed for the Badgers so far this season, but the expectations are still high.

First, let’s take a look at Derek’s list of things that weren’t quite right with the preview:

• Evridge actually won the starting job last year but a hamstring injury allowed Donovan to step in and win the job. He’s also not as immobile as you make it seem.
• I wouldn’t consider Hill a “Fatty” anymore. He’s lost weight and is now elusive more than ever.
• WR Maurice Moore is seeing more snaps than the other backups after Jefferson and Gilreath.
• O’Brien Schofield starts at DE opposite Shaughnessy.
• McFadden starts over Hodge at MLB. Hodge is actually 3rd on the depth chart behind St. Jean because he sucks that much.
• Goins and Brinkley have split time opposite Langford. Jay Valai starts at SS over Pleasant.
• Nortman punts over Debauche and he’s looked good so far.

In addition, some important things have changed since then:

• Lance Smith was kicked off the team prior to the first game for violating the First Offender Program regarding a domestic violence charge from a year ago. He transfered to Memphis.
• Beckum did miss the first 2 games because of a hamstring injury. Evridge threw for 308 yards i that game, granted it was against Marshall. But Graham has really looked great and in my mind will be an NFL TE.
• Kirk Decremer is out for the season with a back injury.
• Henry has been hurt all year, but might be back for the Michigan game.

So it appears that the Badgers have been missing a couple key pieces to the team.

As per usual, the Badgers look to move the ball behind a power run game on the newly-slimmed legs of PJ Hill. There will be lots of between-the-tackles action behind a strong O-line, and a play-action passing game relying mostly on the tight ends.

However, there is a bit of uncertainty due to injury for the Badgers. Hill has been slightly nicked up, and with Lance Smith off the team, backups John Clay and Zach Brown look to play a more prominent role. Unfortunately for the Badgers, Clay also has had some injury issues so far this fall. If Hill is less than 100%, Michigan may be able to stop Wisconsin by focusing on the run game, and forcing Allan Evridge to get it done through the air.

Even if Travis Beckum still isn’t 100%, however, Garrett Graham is also a darn good option from the tight end position. If Beckum is 100%, Wisconsin should be able to do some really good things in the passing game by going to the TEs. The wideouts don’t pose a huge threat on their own, but with a strong running game and two skilled tight ends to take the defense’s focus off the perimeter, there may be a couple plays available to the Badgers.

Defensively, the Badgers have run hot and cold. Until the Fresno State game, they were on a run of starting games slowly, so if Michigan wins the toss, it might be a good idea to take the ball to start out. The secondary is the major point of weakness for Wisconsin, though they have performed somewhat admirably so far (albeit against Fresno State and a pair of tomato cans). With the potential return of Aaron Henry, they could see another step forward in that respect.

The Badgers are doing a good job against the run, but they’ve faced even-less-prolific offenses in that respect. Michigan is also running a different scheme than any of the Badgers’ opponents so far, and they might be able to expose some weaknesses with the zone-read game. Like many traditional power-run teams, the Badgers have a problem with spread offenses, so the Wolverines may be able to exploit that.

Offensively, Michigan should be able to have some success. If they manage to execute like they did against Notre Dame, minus the egregious mistakes (i.e. several thousand fumbles, Nick Sheridan), they should be able to move the ball.

Predictions
Michigan gets its highest scoring output of the year (currently 23 points against Utah)
The defense helps out in that respect, coming away with a turnover that gives Michigan the ball somewhere inside the red zone (or scoring one themselves).
Wisconsin wins, 34-24

Posted under Analysis

After Saturday night’s offense-only thriller between Fresno State and Toledo, Michigan fans were understandably worried about facing the Rockets in a few weeks in the Big House. In The Glass Bowl, Toledo took a BCS Buster to the wire, before finally falling in two overtimes. This means that the Rockets are legit, right?

Let’s take a look at the logic.
Wisconsin is a good team
Fresno State played a good game against Wisconsin (in Fresno)
Toledo played a good game against Fresno State (in Toledo)
Toledo is a good team.

Of course, early in the season, we don’t know a whole lot about many teams, and the Badgers, Bulldogs, and Rockets are not exceptions. Is there a chance that out assumptions may be just a little bit off?

Maybe the Badgers really aren’t very good. Sure, it’s not the most likely case, but there’s a possibility. Maybe the Bulldogs aren’t very good, either. And for that matter, the Rockets would be at the end of that food chain.

Resumes? Resumes.
Toledo is 1-2, having been blown out by Arizona (a team in the middle of a BCS conference, not unlike what Michigan expects to be this year), paid it forward to Eastern Michigan (you might not recognize that name without its standard prefix: perennially awful), and had the close loss to Fresno State.

Fresno is 2-1, with a 17-point win over Rutgers, which looks less like the Rutgers of the last 3 years than that of the previous 136. Their other win is over Toledo, in a close (to the tune of a missed-2-pointer-in-overtime) road game. The loss comes at home to Wisconsin, in a game that should probably have been less close than the 3-point margin would indicate, given a ridiculously horrid call that went against Wisconsin.

Wisconsin is 3-0, with wins over Akron, Marshall, and Fresno State. Assuming Fresno State is worthy of its ESPN-anointed BCS Buster status, the other two games should be of slightly more relevance. The Badgers let Akron get within 17-10 before saying “o ya were da badgers” and blowing out the Zips. They also let Marshall build up a 14-0 lead before saying “o ya were da badgers” and blowing out the Herd. The slow start didn’t happen in Wisconsin’s only road game thus far, as they took a 10-0 lead into halftime and Fresno made it a game in the third quarter.

Yahoo’s Dr. Saturday nee Matt Hinton of SMQ, even said that Fresno’s defense is pretty bad. Wisconsin put up 13 points on said defense. So, unless Arizona is way, way better than expected, maybe none of these teams are that impressive at all. Of course coming off the bye week, the Badgers should be focused and prepared to take on Michigan, but hey, why not try to be a bit of an optimist going into a game that it appears Michigan really doesn’t expect to win?

Posted under Analysis

With the Michigan Wolverines not playing this week, there is little to talk about, so let’s take a moment to revisit my preseason predictions. Of course, I said very few binding things before the season, so we’ll adjust preseason expectations for the remainder of the season, and see where I went wrong at the beginning of the year.

Looking Back:

Utah
The offense will start working out the kinks as they get up to game speed for the first time. A stout defense like Utah’s will be a tough first test. On the other side of the ball, it’s strength against strength as Michigan’s potentially dominant defense squares of with an experienced Utah unit. I think that the strong defense will find a way to keep Utah from outscoring the Michigan offense, but Utah’s D may score once or twice itself.
Prediction: Tossup

Utah’s D didn’t score, but Michigan’s defense was not as strong as expected. I thought Michigan’s offense wouldn’t be very good, but not as bad as it proved to be.

Miami
Miami’s linebacking corps is being touted as the second-best that Michigan will face all year. However, the rest of their defense doesn’t come with the hype, and should allow the Michigan offense to get a rhythm going for the first time in 2008. The Wolverines’ D will stymie the offense of the RedHawks, and Michigan will walk away with another win.
Prediction: Victory

Michigan did indeed pull off a victory on the strength of their defense. The offense looked like it was getting a rhythm going early in the game, but the flow was halted, and the offensive output was far from optimal.

Notre Dame
2008 is Michigan’s turn to have a rebuilding offense, though it will be tough for them to reach the historic lows of Notre Dame’s effort from last year. Jon Tenuta’s blitzing scheme is not going to be easy for inexperienced QB to pick apart. On offense, the Irish couldn’t be any worse than they were last year, but I have little faith in their OL coach (even in their successful ’05 and ’06 seasons, they were 38th and 85th in sacks allowed, respectively, despite having more talent than most of their opponents… note the downward trend). Jimmy Clausen will improve, but will it be enough to score on the talented Michigan defense?
Prediction: Tossup

Michigan’s inability to hold onto the ball was the main disappointment here. Jimmy Clausen was indeed improved, enough to capitalize on several short fields afforded by the likes of Brandon Minor and Michael Shaw. Michigan was finally able to get an offensive rhythm going, however, though it didn’t show up on the scoreboard because of all the turnovers.

Looking Forward
Since these games haven’t happened yet, my predictions haven’t become relevant, though I will leave in the Wisconsin prognostication, as we shall see soon enough how close it is to reality.

Wisconsin
The hits keep coming as the Badgers of Wisconsin head to Ann Arbor to take on Michigan. Even if UW’s pass defense doesn’t improve significantly, it might not need to against the inexperienced signal-callers of Michigan. On offense, Wisconsin will have the traditional pounding attack, but Michigan’s D-line should be up to the task. However, with limited depth on defense, even Mike Barwis couldn’t prevent the Wolverines from getting worn down.
Prediction: Loss

Perhaps Michigan’s second-biggest disappointment from the Notre Dame game was slowing down the power running attack that the Irish implemented. Wisconsin is the posterboy for that offensive scheme, so the Badgers should have some success, unless the UM linebacking corps can rebound in tremendous fashion. Offensively, the Wolverines started putting it together last week, though Wisconsin’s defense is likely to be more formidable than the Irish were. Still, I have enough confidence to upgrade this one ever-so-slightly to tossup.

Illinois
Prediction: Tossup

I still think Illinois is in a slight rebuilding year after losing their best player on each side of the ball. Juice has looked erratic at times, and good at others. This should be a chance for Michigan to get a statement win.

Toledo
Prediction: Victory

Michigan is undefeated against the MAC, and don’t let the records fool you: Miami was a better team than Toledo is.

Penn State
Prediction: Loss

When I first wrote the preview, I thought Penn State was a probable loss on the verge of a tossup. After seeing both the Nittany Lions and Wolverines in action this season, it’s looking more like a definite loss on the verge of a blowout.

Michigan State
Prediction: Tossup

I still have yet to be impressed by the Spartans. Their loss was to a Cal team that got run off the field by a downright bad Maryland squad, and Javon Ringer is the only MSU player who has looked impressive thus far.

Purdue
Prediction: Victory

Purdue was competitive against Oregon, so maybe I should downgrade this one to a tossup. Still, the Boilers’ offense wasn’t particularly impressive agaisnt a good defense, so the jury is still out on Purdue.

Minnesota
Prediction: Victory

Minnesota has looked better than expected, but the Gophers have a long way to go (and the schedule will only get tougher from here).

Northwestern
Prediction: Victory

After seeing NU play this year, I will downgrade them from a victory to a tossup, though with the game in Ann Arbor, and the Michigan offense presumably continuing its progression, MIchigan still might be able to come away with a win.

Ohio State
Prediction: Pain

Ohio State certainly looked beatable against USC. However, if Beanie Wells plays two games this year, they will be the contests against Young
stown State and Michigan. With Wells in the backfield, and Pryor presumably playing a bigger role as the year goes on, Ohio State is a cut above Michigan. The weak OSU offensive line provides a glimmer of hope, but the downgrade on this game goes only to “defeat.”

And…?
If my preseason prediction of a 7-5 season is to come true, Michigan needs to finish the year with a 6-3 record. With losses coming against Penn State and Ohio State, and wins against Toledo and Minnesota, the Wolverines will have to go 4-1 against a slate of Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State, Purdue, and Northwestern. The best I see Michigan going is 3-2, and even that might be something of a stretch.

Posted under Analysis

For this second straight year, this game could look a little something like this:

Of course, last year, Michigan ended up pantsing The Worst Team Ever, and the Irish limped to a 3-9 season (that, in all honesty, should have been worse). So, what do we know about this years game?

When I previewed the Irish back in the summer, I was slightly skeptical that they would see tons of improvement. However, that didn’t stop nearly every preseason magazine from anointing them the #1 most improved team, including Phil Steele. Against San Diego State, however, the Irish looked downright pitiful against a team that got completely smoked by a 1-AA squad the previous week, and needed the benefit of a couple pretty bad calls to put away the Aztecs.

The Irish offense was once again bad. I am still shocked that John Latina has yet to be fired, as the offensive line is completely terrible once again (please don’t fire him, Notre Dame, we love him). Four starters return from last year’s line, so inexperience can no longer be the excuse for getting dominated at the point of attack by one of the worst teams in 1-A.

Jimmy Clausen and the running backs seemed to carry over some of the same major issues they had last year, as outlined (with video!) in this post. However, just from a one-game sample size, I would name Clausen the most improved Irish player.

On defense, the Irish didn’t dominate, but they did only allow 13 points to the Aztecs. Then again, one must take into consideration that San Diego state put up 379 yards on Cal Poly, and 345 on Notre Dame. This puts the Irish into “about the same quality as Cal Poly” territory.

Michigan hasn’t exactly excelled themselves this early in the year, but the moribund performance from the Irish has to put some hope into the sails of Wolverine fans. Of course, the majority of SDSU’s yardage came through the air, and Michigan’s quarterbacks are far from stellar. That said, there is little question that they are more talented than the Aztecs’ Ryan Lindley. Considering San Diego State was a blown call away from icing the Irish early in the fourth quarter, Michigan should have a little hope.

Predictions
Michigan’s defensive line should prevent the Irish from getting anything going consistently in this game. Clausen looks much better on the deep ball than he did in 2007 ,but I don’t think he’ll have a lot of time to throw it.
On offense, Michigan should be able to incrementally increase their production, as the execution gets better with a little more game experience.
Michigan wins 17-3.

By the way, here’s a way more complete list of prospect who will be at the game.

Posted under Analysis