Back in the summer when we previewed Miami, it appeared as though they would have a strong defense on the strength of three returning seniors, all of whom are all-conference candidates in the MAC. The offense didn’t look quite as strong, with something of a quarterback controversy going on. After the loss to Vanderbilt, we weren’t quite sure what to think, because nobody carries ESPNU. However, we relied on Dan Kukla of The Miami Student to fill us in on what we had missed.

Vanderbilt took Miami behind the woodshed, and the RedHawks weren’t even competitve against the SEC bottom-dweller. The defense did not perform as expected, and the offense languished under the guidance of Daniel Radabough.

One thing that Kukla specifically pointed out was that Vanderbilt’s “SEC Speed” was apparent against the RedHawks. Of course, I’m personally of the opinion that “SEC Speed,” aside from not really existing, certainly doesn’t aply to the Commodores. That said, Michigan’s athletes, position-for-position, were all more highly recruited out of high school than were Vandy’s, and Michigan has a decided speed advantage at every position as well. This doesn’t bode well for Miami.

However, the speed means nothing if Michigan fails, as it did against Utah, to get athletes into space. The offensive line has to protect the quarterback(s) and make holes in the running game. Brandon Minor being healthy enough to get full prctice reps this week should make him the starter, and give a little stability to the UM offense.

On the other side of the ball, MIchigan’s defense is facing a much limper test than it was last week against the Utes. Assuming there isn’t as much of a first-half struggle to get into the game, this defense should be able to dominate a weaker opponent.

Predictions:
Michigan’s defense will take out revenge for their first-half struggles last week by dominating the RedHawks.
Michigan’s offense will be able to move the ball more effectively, with Steven Threet starting at QB.
Martavious Odoms and Brandon Minor will both have at least one touchdown.
There will be a big play for Michigan on special teams.
The Wolverines win, 24-3.

Posted under Analysis

As I noted in our summer preview of Utah, the Utes are probably going to be among the better teams that Michigan plays this year. Speaking with Daily Utah Chronicle writer Tony Pizza didn’t dissuade me from that position.

Utah has experience on both sides of the ball, and quarterback Brian Johnson is finally healthy after suffering a multitude of injuries over the past two years. The offense should hum along, and the defense should be competent. The run defense appears to be a bit of a weakness for Utah, with a light group of starters on the line. That is probably how Michigan will primarily move the ball, especially with the quarterback situation still not settled.

Marquis Wilson, as predicted in the summer, is suspended for this game (and in fact, the entire year). One other thing that may give Michigan fans a bit of hope is the poor job Utah did defending the option against Navy last year. I predicted that they wouldn’t be able to defend our option all that well before even seeing the stats. Navy ran for 316 yards on Utah in the Poinsettia Bowl, and managed to pass for 122 yards, 30 more than their season average.

The key for Michigan is to get a fast start. If they can get the first score, and a bit of momentum going, they should be able to take control of the game. Even a score on special teams on the opening kick could help make Utah think “Jesus these guys are good!” (Note: I usually think scoring on the opening kick is a disadvantage, because it makes the scoring team complacent. However, I think this Michigan team has something to prove in game one, and Utah may be fearing an obvious talent disparity). Utah has developed something of a reputation for road game chokes against BCS teams early in the season under Whittingham, and any sign that they are in for another round of the same may make the team fold.

Predictions:
Michigan’s offense won’t light up the scoreboard, but they will be surprisingly competent.
Michigan’s defense won’t live up to the 1997/2006-ish expectations that are being thrust upon it.
Michigan walks away the victor (barely) in a fairly low-scoring battle, winning 23-20.

What say you, fair fans of Varsity Blue?

Posted under Analysis

Offense
Defense
Special Teams
Recruiting Prospectus

Now that we’ve seen what I think of each individual unit, and each team as a whole, it’s time to make some predictions about how I think it will all come together.

Early in the year, the offense will have to rely on the defense to help them out a lot. Especially with Terrance Robinson missing at least a couple weeks at a key position in the Michigan offense (both in terms of use and depth), Terrance Taylor will have to lead the defensive line to dominance, and Morgan Trent and Donovan Warren will have to play like the big Ten’s top corner duo.

Michigan is one of the hardest teams in the country to make predictions for, because nobody truly knows what to expect, not even rich Rodriguez’s coaching staff. I do think that a lot of the pessimism in press conferences is a bit of misdirection, but anyone expecting the Wolverines to run the table might need to go for a reality check.

Predictions!
Utah
The offense will start working out the kinks as they get up to game speed for the first time. A stout defense like Utah’s will be a tough first test. On the other side of the ball, it’s strength against strength as Michigan’s potentially dominant defense squares of with an experienced Utah unit. I think that the strong defense will find a way to keep Utah from outscoring the Michigan offense, but Utah’s D may score once or twice itself.
Prediction: Tossup

Miami
Miami’s linebacking corps is being touted as the second-best that Michigan will face all year. However, the rest of their defense doesn’t come with the hype, and should allow the Michigan offense to get a rhythm going for the first time in 2008. The Wolverines’ D will stymie the offense of the RedHawks, and Michigan will walk away with another win.
Prediction: Victory

Notre Dame
2008 is Michigan’s turn to have a rebuilding offense, though it will be tough for them to reach the historic lows of Notre Dame’s effort from last year. Jon Tenuta’s blitzing scheme is not going to be easy for inexperienced QB to pick apart. On offense, the Irish couldn’t be any worse than they were last year, but I have little faith in their OL coach (even in their successful ’05 and ’06 seasons, they were 38th and 85th in sacks allowed, respectively, despite having more talent than most of their opponents… note the downward trend). Jimmy Clausen will improve, but will it be enough to score on the talented Michigan defense?
Prediction: Tossup

Wisconsin
The hits keep coming as the Badgers of Wisconsin head to Ann Arbor to take on Michigan. Even if UW’s pass defense doesn’t improve significantly, it might not need to against the inexperienced signal-callers of Michigan. On offense, Wisconsin will have the traditional pounding attack, but Michigan’s D-line should be up to the task. However, with limited depth on defense, even Mike Barwis couldn’t prevent the Wolverines from getting worn down.
Prediction: Loss

Illinois
I’m not as high on the Illini as many people are after their breakout 2007 season. They lost their two best players, and although Juice Williams improved dramatically, he still completed only 57.3% of his passes, and with the threat of Rashard Mendenhall gone, it will be tougher for him to both run and pass. Arrelius Benn, however, will be a big help catching passes and making things happen. On defense, the Illini are doing a bit of rebuilding yet again, with J Leman gone. However, the talent to replace him is there.
Prediction: Tossup

Toledo
The Rockets had a fairly prolific offense last year, and look to continue that trend with a trio of quarterbacks who have game experience. The rushing attack will drop off quite a bit, however. On defense, the Rockets might not have the talent to stop the Michigan offense, especially if they can get a bit of momentum going in the middle of the year.
Prediction: Victory

Penn State
Though Michigan has owned Penn State in recent years, don’t expect that trend to continue. Penn State is equally transitional, but the Nitanny Lions retun much of a strong line, and their personnel ran the spread a few years ago with Michael Robinson at the helm. Whil Penn State lacks a true offensive leader like Robinson, they shouldn’t drop off too much. On defense, the Lions are a little weaker than recent years, with a relatively green linebacking corps and a group of tackles decimated by offseason attrition. However, Michigan’s inexperience on offense will likely outweigh Penn State’s on defense.
Prediction: Loss

Michigan State
Like Illinois, I’m not buying into much of the national hype on the Spartans. Returning a starting QB isn’t as positive if he’s more liability than asset. Javon Ringer is the only truly great player on this offense (though his “thunder” counterpart, Jehuu Caulcrick, is gone), and Hoyer’s top two targets now ply their trade in the NFL. On defense, MSU lost their SackMaster, several pieces from an already suspect secondary, and linebacker Kaleb Thornhill. However, there is reason to be excited about another linebacker, the youngster Greg Jones.
Prediction: Tossup

Purdue
The Purdue game might be one of the most important of the year for Michigan. I’m not joking. If they roll into this game at 4-4 (as I’m predicting), a win would put Michigan in good position to get to a bowl game for the 35th straight year. A loss, however, and they have to hope that they get in at 6-6. The Purdue offense has consistently sputtered against decent opponents, and Michigan’s defense this year is expected to be one of the best in the nation, especially as the youth gets worked out over the course of the year. On defense, Purdue looks fairly dire, with several players moving around to try to replace impact guys from last year. Michigan’s offense won’t be prolific, but should be able to take advantage of a weak defensive unit.
Prediction: Victory

Minnesota
Unless Tim Brewster ignites a Zook-ian turnaround in his Gopher squad, they should be at or near the bottom of the Big Ten standings by the time this game rolls around. I would have liked to see a scrimmage between Minnesota’s defense and Notre Dame’s offense last year to see which was more incompetent. The Gophers can’t be much worse this year, but they probably won’t be heaps better, either. Minnesota’s offense was decent last year, but it would still take a big leap to be successful against top-tier defenses, one of which Michigan looks to have.
Prediction: Victory

Northwestern
Northwestern blogger Lake the Pos
ts is trying to generate buzz around this edition of the Wildcats, but I don’t see them making a leap towards the top of the conference. They will be a middle-of-the-pack team (and Northwestern fans should remember that not too long ago, they would have been begging for that). I see Michigan as a middling conference team as well, but a team that looks similar to Northwestern with vastly more talent, except at the QB position.
Prediction: Victory

Ohio State
The most complete team in the country, on their own home field.
Prediction: Pain

All in all, it looks to be a 7-5 regular season for Michigan. Of course, they could come out against Utah looking either much stronger or much weaker than expected, which would throw all these predictions off. However, a rebuilding year in 2008 should be expected, with 2009 being a return to the top of the conference standings, before the Wolverines start making national noise around 2010.

Of course, now that everything is worked out for the 2008 season, what can we look forward to in recruiting for 2009 and 2010?

Posted under Analysis

This week, we welcomed Tony Pizza, the Sports Editor of the Daily Utah Chronicle, to give us some inside info on the Utes.

UPDATE: For some reason that is not immediately obvious, the flash player for this isn’t working (and only for this one). For the time being, you can download the podcast here (right click>save target as). I’ll try to figure out what the problem is. If that isn’t working (my computer decided it no longer could run any sort of sound hardware), I’ll remaster it at work tomorrow and re-post it.

UPDATE PART DUEX: It’s been remastered and double checked. It really should work for everyone now. I hope.

 

 Previewing the Utah Utes [16:15m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

Posted under Analysis, Blogcast

Projected Depth Chart

Kicking Game
After The Horror and the several other games in which Jason Gingell was horrible, he was replaced by5th-year senior KC Lopata, who just so happened to be pretty good. He will return as the kicker. Punting will be the domain of redshirt junior Zoltan Mesko, with Bryan Wright handling kickoffs. Wright is also moving from placekicker to punter, where he will back up Mesko.

Statistics

Analysis
KC was a good replacement for Gingell last year, and should maintain his grip on the job in 2008. He was consistent, even if he doesn’t have great leg strength. Zoltan is poised to be one of the best punters in the conference, and Bryan Wright has a big leg for kicking touchbacks, but clearly not accurate enough to kick field goals. The move to a rugby punt may scare some Michigan fans, but it hasn’t come back to bite West Virginia in recent years.

Return Game
On punt returns, Donovan Warren is expected to be the starter. If his speed isn’t what the team needs at the position, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a return to the steady hands of Greg Mathews. On kickoff returns, Morgan Trent and Brandon Harrison are expected to start. Both have good top-end speed.

Statistics:

Analysis
There are plenty of options, especially with the freshmen recreuited to the speed-friendly offense of Rich Rodriguez. Don’t be surprised to see a more exciting return game than Michigan had in 2007, though perhaps not as electrifying as Steve Breaston was in the role.

Posted under Analysis

Michigan Defense
Defensive Line
Linebackers
Secondary

Overall Defensive Analysis
This should be the strength of the team, with several returning starters, especially along the D-line. Having to replace big parts of the linebacking corps and secondary may be troublesome, but the defensive line is expected to be somewhat dominant. As long as they keep the pressure on, the other units might not have to do too much.

Keys to Defensive Success
The Mike Barwis factor may get more press than it deserves, but the defensive line was consistently winded during games last year, and if they are all in shape to go for an entire game, they should bring a lot of success to the offense. With the more aggressive defensive schemes of Scott Shafer, the corners will have to be able to get a good jam on receivers, and the new safeties will have to prevent giving up big plays. Another thing that might be helpful is to score some points on their own, since the offense may struggle to do so.

Posted under Analysis

Michigan Offense
Offensive Backs
Receiving Corps
Offensive Line

Overall Offensive Analysis
The youth and inexperience at quarterback and offensive line (and to a certain extent, receiver) could mean bad things for the Michigan offense this year. The running backs will provide a certain degree of consistency. The slots are very young, but the system is tailored to their skill sets, and they should have some success.

Keys to Offensive Success
Quarterback play is essential in this system, and it will be especially crucial in 2008 with youth at the position. The quarterbacks will have to distribute the ball to the playmakers (enough of which there are to run a successful offense) and avoid making mistakes and committing turnovers. The offense has to keep the ball, and allow the defense to get a bit of rest. Since the defense is expected to be fairly dominant, the offense’s main job is to not screw up.

Posted under Analysis

Projected Depth Chart

Safeties and Nickels
Safeties Jamar Adams and Brandent Englemon are gone, but Junior Stevie Brown will be given another chance to start at safety, and the other spot will likely be manned by senior Brandon Harrison or 5th-year senior Charles Stewart. At nickel, redshirt freshman Michael Williams may get some playing time, or he could even move into the safety rotation.

Stats

Corners
5th-year senior Morgan Trent and sophomore sensation Donovan Warren are back to man the corner positions. Trent is blessed with speed, and Waren is a pure cover man. Woolfolk may be one of the first backups, along with Nickelman Brandon Harrison. Freshman Boubacar Cissoko will likely contribute as well.

Stats

Notes: Rogers is expected to move to offense this year.

Analysis
After the implosions of the App State and Oregon games, Johnny Sears was booted from the team, Stevie Brown was relegated to backup duty, and the Michigan secondary quietly became one of the best in the country. Trent and Warren comprise one of the best cornerback duos in the conference if not the nation. Stevie Brown is a good athlete and big hitter, and if he has taken the time to grasp the mental aspects of the position, should become a great safety down the line. Brandon Harrison is little and speedy, but most known for whiffing on sacks in nickel blitz situations. Several of Michigan’s backup DBs have had injury issues in the past, which are hopefully gone with the reign of Mike Barwis. The freshmen will contribute some, but mainly to get playing time for future years, not because their services are absolutely required.

Posted under Analysis, Personnel

Projected Depth Chart

Linebackers
Obi Ezeh was the starter in the middle last year as a redshirt freshman. The outside linebackers, Shawn Crable and Cris Graham are gone, but not necessarily lamented. On the strong side, expect redshirt freshman Marell Evans to work his way into a starting role. On the weakside, redshirt sophomore Jonas Mouton is a good athlete, but has been plagued by injuries during his firs two years at Michigan, and hasn’t been able to master the mental aspect of linebacking. He will battle senior Austin Panter, the former junior college defensive player of the year, for a starting role. 5th-year senior Johnny Thompson and redshirt freshman Brandon Herron provide some depth. Michigan also brought in a big freshman class of LBs, and a couple, such as Kenny Demens or JB Fitzgerald, may be asked to contribute.

Stats

Analysis
Graham’s departure isn’t quite addition by subtraction, but it’s pretty close. A lot of Michigan fans feel the same way about Crable, but I personally believe that he was just misused. Bad football players do not get drafted by the Best Team Ever Until They Lost in the third round. Ezeh should be improved from last year, and he is getting to be a big boy for linebacker. Marell Evans is a good athlete who is known for his work ethic. Johnny Thompson has never done anything to stick out to me, I think he would be a depth player if this team had a linebacking corps that you might expect from Michigan. A couple of the freshmen may be expected to contribute, but the coaching staff would prefer to play the upperclassmen.

Posted under Analysis, Personnel

Projected Depth Chart

Defensive Tackles
In the middle, Senior Terrance Taylor and 5th-year Will Johnson are the tackles. There is little depth among the backups, particularly with Marques Slocum leaving the team this summer. Redshirt sophomores Jason Kates and John Ferrara will be the backup tackles. Renaldo Sagesse has reportedly had a good summer and should challenge for playing time as well. Don’t be surprised to see true freshman Mike Martin in the rotation, either.

Stats

Analysis
Taylor is a big run-stopper at defensive tackle, and has been a starter since his sophomore year. Johnson enters his second year as a starter, though I found him entirely uninspiring last year. The backups are far less touted and experienced than the starters across the line, but they will have to get the job done as well. While the starting DLine is probably the strength of the Michigan team, the lack of depth is one of the major weaknesses.

Defensive Ends
One the ends, Michigan returns another pair of starters. Junior Brandon Graham is a terror from the defensive end position, and 5th-year senior Tim Jamison mans the other side. Jamison is a more traditional speed rusher, but Graham has an element of quickness to his game as well. The backups are Ryan VanBergen, Adam Patterson, and Greg Banks. A man-sans-position thus far in his career, senior Andre Criswell will give end a shot this year.

Stats

Analysis
Graham is a very athletic pass rusher on one side, but fans are still waiting for Tim Jamison to live up to his potential. Many are hoping that a good ass-kicking in the weight room under new strength coach Mike Barwis can unlock the thus-far dormant ability. The lack of depth at end is a major weaknesses. Few have gained significant playing time thus far, and there aren’t even that many bodies at the position. Until he showed up to camp ineligible, it was thought that Marcus Witherspoon might become a defensive end. A likely redshirt this year may be the perfect opportunity to switch positions.

Posted under Analysis, Personnel