Game 1

This season is going to give me a heart attack. Michigan wins its second in a row to open the season on a walk off single, this time in the 10th inning. Tyler Burgoon gets the win again, he’s now on pace to win 55 games this season, shattering the previous record by over 30. He pitched 4 innings of shut out relief, keeping Michigan close.  He was definitely the player of the game.  Maloney didn’t even warm anyone else up the down the stretch of the game.  That’s the kind of confidence Rich has in Tyler.

McLouth was a hero again this time with the walk off single. He went 3-5 in the game with 2 RBIs. That puts him at .444 for the season with 7 total bases.  Toth also did a great job working the count.  He earned three walks in the game, including one to set up the winning run.

The one area that looked ugly though was baserunning.  We were caught three times today.  We’re slightly more aggressive this year, but it has yet to pay off.  It’ll be interesting to see if we keep up this level of intensity on the base paths or if Maloney will change up his plan of attack.

As said previously, I’ll have the full recap up for the weekend sometime on Monday. We have a quick turn around as Michigan faces Cincinnati in about an hour and a half.

Game 2

Michigan finally decided to get ahead and stay ahead in this game.  We gave Travis Smith a 3 run lead before he even took the mound, and that was all we needed.  Smith and Matt Miller combined to give up only one run while striking out 16.  Mike Dufek added a 3 run homer, his first of the year, as insurance late, but even that wasn’t needed.

Aaron Fitt at Baseball America described the Dufek bomb thusly:

[Mike Dufek] hit a Chris Dominguez-like bomb in the top of the seventh, a three-run shot that gave the Wolverines a 6-1 lead. This missile cleared the berm behind the right-field fence and bounced halfway up the chain-link fence that shields U.S. 19. And it got there in a hurry. I haven’t seen a ball hit that hard since Dominguez hit two massive homers for Louisville in the 2007 College World Series.

Of course Aaron screwed up the name of the player, citing Mike Spina (of Cincinnati) instead, but the description of the homerun was spot on with Dufek’s blast.  In other hitting standouts, Nick Urban also had quite a day, just a home run shy of the cycle.

We’re off for the rest of the night.  Tomorrow is St. John’s, who scored 12 on Iowa in the first inning in route to a 18-3 shellacking, yikes.

Posted under Baseball

The Varsity Blue crew kind of threw me off by posting the USF preview so early, so I’m going to continue that pattern with this preview. I’ll have the Cincy post tomorrow with a general post on the Challenge and what it means to Michigan baseball, as well as college baseball in general. This being a conference opponent, there is a little bit more detail in this than normal. It will hopefully get a little more specific once we get to the actual conference season, when games really start to count.   WordPress is also giving me formatting issues, so bear with for the time being.   –FA

Image from purdue.edu

Purdue*

*not a conference game
February 21, 2009 11:00am
Naimoli Complex
Clearwater, Fla.
Media:  Audio and  Stats

Home Team: TBA
Probable Pitchers: TBA vs Kolby Wood (RHP, 0-0)
M Record vs Opponent: 129-52
Last Series/Game: Michigan won 2 in the Big10 Tournament, last regular season match up was the 2007 series Michigan won 3 games to 1.

Overview

As stated above, this game, despite being against a conference opponent, is not a true conference game. Due to Louisville choosing to play Florida is a better venue than the Challenge, each Big10 team is playing one game against a conference opponent. The way the Big10 schedule works out, Big10 team misses out on one conference opponent per season, much like football does with the two opponents rotating off the schedule every two years. So, for a second year in a row, Michigan does not face Purdue during the regular season. To make up for the differing number of teams from each conference, the Big10 teams opted to face the conference opponent they would not be facing during conference season.

Purdue is coming off a very successful 2008 in which they finished 2nd in the Big10 regular season and was the last competitor to lose in the Big10 Championship. This year they are expected to rival, or even usurp Michigan as the winner of the Big10. Purdue may have lost stars Ryne White and Josh Lindblom, but they return nearly every other player on the team. They are by far the most experienced, and perhaps the best team on paper. That being said, as far as winning the Big10 is concerned, Baseball America puts it this way: “The Boilermakers last won a Big Ten title about the same time the Cubs won a World Series, in 1909.”

Michigan holds a fairly sizable lead in the historical series, as seen above. When we shorten the spectrum to the last 10 games, Michigan leads 8-2 spanning back to 2006. The two losses came closing out the 2006 series and opening the 2007 series (one at school’s home field).

Full preview after the jump…

Read More…

Posted under Baseball

Raw data in .xls format here.

Half 1

Half 2

Game totals

Individual players:

Aside from the elbow, Manny didn’t have a particularly good game. He complemented bad shooting with a bunch of turnovers as well.

LLP’s shooting is mostly frightening because he’s missing the really easy ones. That speaks to a mental hurdle. Hopefully Beilein will be able to take care of that with a long week of prectice.

Suspended, yo.

As Michigan’s best offensive weapon for most of the day, Purdue was able to concentrate on him. Both 3-point makes came early in the game (Michigan’s first 6 points).

Didn’t look to shoot the ball, and got surprisingly little playing time. As the most consistent 3-point shooter on the team, he could have been used better once Harris went out.

His makes were notable (a thunderous dunk and the tip-in to give Michigan a halftime lead), but he was fairly quiet.

Shot the ball horribly, but he actually wa on a number of positive shifts.

When CJ Lee plays 3/4 of the game, your team is undermanned; he made the gritty walkon plays we’ve come to associate him with.

He is so athletic, but his basketball skill is so limited. It’s a shame Beilein didn’t have another year with him, as Jevohn could have been made into a real player if he’d had a legitimiate coach for more than 2 years.

I’m actually surprised his differential was that close to zero. He was on the floor for pretty much the entire Purdue run early in the second half that toasted Michigan’s chances to win. He can’t shoot to save his life, either..

Dude can shoot the ball, but at 150 lbs soaking wet, he’s a major defensive liability. If only players could redshirt 2 years, he could add some bulk and become a good player down the road. He should contribute in future years if he can add weight.

What This Says…

Manny Harris and Zack Novak are both really important to this team (and maybe Novak will have his shooting stroke back after an extended practice period with no games to break it up). By the way, I’m disgusted in Purdue’s reputation as this awesome defensive team: if I could describe them in one word, it would be dirty. Chris Kramer is the best example of this, as he flops more than Anderson Varejao, and does more grabbing, bumping, getting through screens using the point of his elbow, etc., than any player I can recall (and it’s a shame the conference rewarded him for it by naming him the Defensive POY last year). Coming out in a mask because he had a little cut on his skin was particularly douchey. I’m now convinced that Purdue’s defensive reputation is built more upon getting away with a bunch of dirty stuff, rather than actually being good on defense (which they are as well, to be fair).

Manny Harris’s ejection was ridiculous, as the refs changed their original call after seeing Kramer was bleeding. By the way, they thought Kramer had broken his nose, which was a fair assumption based on the rolling on the floor he did. Alas, that was all part of his acting job, since the only blood came from a small cut on his nose. Harris didn’t even hit him hard enough to knock him down (watch the replay: he falls opposite of the direction he got hit, and about a half second later), and had Harris moisturized his elbows before the game, this would have been an innocuous offensive foul.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

Or: Tim’s foray into tempo-free statistics.

Michigan has a chance to best the conference’s preseason favorite as they take on the Purdue Boilermakers today at 1PM. The game takes place in west Lafayette, and can be seen on CBS.

Tempo-Free and efficiency comparison (if you need an explanation of what any of these things mean, head to KenPom’s website):

Differences of more than 100 places in the rankings garner two-letter advantages, differences of more than 200 get a third.

Purdue is a very good defensive team, and one of the more well-rounded squads Michigan has faced on the year. They’re a horrible matchup for a Michigan team that is struggling to produce on offense, and especially one that is struggling to hit its shots. The Boilers are #1 in the nation in forcing their opponents into missing their field goal attempts. Another sign of a tenacious defensive unit is opponents’ turnovers. The Boilers have been pretty good at forcing the opponent to give up the ball. Michigan, on the other hand, has been good at holding onto it, save for a few bad perfformances (most notably Wednesday night in Columbus). Michigan will face a tough challenge in getting the offense going. Ken Pomeroy predicts a 73-60 Boilermaker victory in a 66-possession game, and gives Michigan just a 9% chance of winning.

The key players for Purdue are E’twaun Moore, Chris Kramer (#29 in the nation in steals and last year’s conference defensive POY), and Robbie Hummel, who is now coming off the bench after coming back from an injury. Hummel is an efficient offensive player, as is big man JaJuan Johnson.

Before the end of the Ohio State game, I thought it might be time to reduce Laval Lucas-Perry’s minutes, as he’s clearly struggling on the floor right now. With Zack Novak suspended for a game though, LLP will probably have to play at least as many minutes as he’s been getting. There should also be a lot of Zack Gibson in the game (not necessarily a good thing), and Manny will probably have to play the 4 a lot as well.

Things look grim, but if the Wolverines somehow manage to pull off a huge conference road victory, they may be able to scratch their way back into the tournament discussion.

Posted under Analysis, Basketball

So, with a little more time to let this game stew, it’s time to make a few more observations.

First, what was up with the defense? It hasn’t been good this year by any means, but it has never been quite that bad. Plus, the base scheme switched from the 4-3 (or the 3-4 nickel) to a pretty standard 3-3-5 stack. I’m not sure if RR decided to go with something he was used to, since Shafer’s schemes haven’t been lighting the world on fire. The 3-3-5 has developed something of a reputation for being good against the run, but bad against the pass. On Saturday, it was subpar against each. I’m not one to rag on Shafer, as most of the defensive woes are from players being in position, but missing tackles (re-watch the game if you want to torture yourself in that department) or being otherwise John Thompson-y, but the perforfmance the other day still has me scratching my head.

Steven Threet is obviously a lot more hurt than either he or the coaching staff wants to admit. Ever since the elbow bruise, he has been alternatingly mediocre and bad. On Saturday, he was 9-21 for 123 yards. What’s more disturbing than that? He is still infinitely better than Nick Sheridan. Sheridan’s numbers would have likely been similar, except trading the two touchdowns for interceptions.

Martavious Odoms, Darryl Stonum, and Boubacar Cissoko had something of a coming out party, though Odoms had flashes of brilliance earlier in the year. Stonum’s touchdown catch-and-run was nothing short of awesome, and both Odoms and Cissoko looked more than competent returning kicks and punts.

Justin Feagin played on special teams. What is the point of holding a guy out most of the year, then switching his position and burning his redshirt? It doesn’t make much sense, though I wouldn’t be surprised if it had something to do with trick play ability in the last few games.

With Brandon Minor proving himself to be something of a competent back when he doesn’t fumble, I wonder if Sam McGuffie will see a little more time in the slot. Michigan currently has an absolute dearth of bodies at the position, and he could be useful there. I don’t think it would be a permanent change, just something to fill a gap.

I wonder how different his year could have been if we’d gotten one of the games early in the year against Utah or Notre Dame. I don’t think the team is as bad as they’ve played of late, but there confidence has shattered, and the coaches may be trying to do too much stuff, and changing things around as they scramble for wins. At this point, I don’t think Purdue is really a better team (particularly with their third-string quarterback), but Michigan is just stuck in a downward spiral that probably won’t end until next year.

Posted under Football

Two days after I try to stand up for the defense, they get lit up like a Christmas tree. Michigan’s opponent is practically guaranteed to win the Pontiac game-changing performance. A bowl game is officially out of reach.

It stinks.

Posted under Football

When I previewed Purdue in the summer, I didn’t think they’d be a very good team this year. However, the depths of their fall have been a surprise even to me. With a new coach stepping up next year, are we witnessing the end of the “Purdue-as-midtier-team” era? It certainly seems like it. This game looks like Michigan’s best chance to get another win by the end of the year, and injuries may play a key role in this weekend’s matchup.

Offense
Purdue’s offense under Joe Tiller has been characterized as “basketball on grass.” The pass-happy spread attack made Tiller’s career, and he has seen success in West Lafayette, though not so much in recent years. This year, the Purdue offense hasn’t been very good. Throw in the fact that starting quarterback Curtis Painter is not expected to be available and it’s bad new Boilers. By the way, the backup quarterback, Joey Elliott is out too. That leaves OLSM product Justin Siller, who moved back to QB from running back just a couple of weeks ago, to run the offense. Don’t be surprised if there’s tons of Kory Sheets in the gameplan Saturday.

Defense
The Boilermakers’ defense hasn’t been performing well, but they have faced a couple of pretty good offenses in Oregon (whom they held to only 32 points in two overtimes) and Central Michigan (whose production has fallen off slightly this year). Notre Dame managed to put up 38 on Purdue without the help of ridiculous field position, though the Irish did get a defensive touchdown. Regardless, the Wolverines are probably the most inept offense Purdue will face. The Boilers’ talent level is low, however, Michigan should be able to put something together, particularly using the MINOR SMASH offense.

Predictions
Purdue’s offense is held under 250 yards.
Steven Threet doesn’t throw an interception.
Michigan wins 23-10.

Posted under Football

Going into the Michigan State game, I was not confident Michigan would win, but certainly that they could win. As it turns out, the defense laid a complete egg, and it’s back to the drawing board again. A few random observations from the weekend that was:

• The stadium atmosphere, though it was better than some games, left a whole lot to be desired. Most disturbingly, a rival’s fans got a stadium-wide cheer going in the waning moments of a victory in our stadium.
• The offense still can’t put together four full quarters, but with the defense Michigan has, there really isn’t much of an excuse to lose a game in which we score 21 points.
• The recruiting weekend didn’t go exactly as planned, but it sounds as though most of the recruits in attendance really liked Michigan – with the notable exception of DeWayne Peace. Is a decommitment looming?
• Maybe I’ve just never considered them because I’m friends with a bunch of MSU fans, and those that I typically run across are cordial enough, but MSU fans are really a special brand of pathetic.

And looking forward to Purdue:

• The Boilermakers are probably the coldest team in the conference at this point, with Wisconsin and Indiana finally cracking through this past weekend. The next closest “competitor?” Probably Michigan. Sadly, this weekend’s game is likely a battle to avoid finishing at the bottom of the conference, along with Indiana.
• QB Curtis Painter is expected to miss the game this weekend. Top backup Joey Elliott is out for the remainder of the season. That means OLSM product Justin Siller will likely start for the Boilers.
• If you ask me, Purdue is the closest thing offensively Michigan will play to Toledo (except maybe Minnesota). This might bode ill for the Michigan defense, since it’s a personnel upgrade at nearly every position (except maybe replacing a 5th-year senior QB for a redshirt freshman).
• I don’t forsee having a podcast this week.
• Michigan really needs this game. If they can get a bit of momentum going, they could probably pull off a game or two against Minnesota and Northwestern, as well.

Posted under Football