Game Recap

Box Score													R	H	E
EMU	0	0	0		2	0	1		0	0	0		3	9	0
Michigan	0	0	0		0	0	0		1	0	0		1	10	1

W – Sikora (1-0) L -Brandon Sinnery (1-1)

Well, the Mid Week bug struck early, as Michigan loses to Eastern Michigan at home. Chantel Jennings at the Daily had a chance to interview Mike Dufek before the game and Coach Maloney before and after the playing, it seems the guys might have been a little too overconfident.

“We know that we are supposed to win,” [Mike Dufek] said. “It’s only a matter of us focusing and playing well.”

“I even talked to the team before the game,” Maloney said. “I said, ‘Let’s understand that anyone can knock you off.’ Maybe this will be a lesson learned for later days.”

Ouch.

I was working during the game and have had trouble getting MGoBlue’s media player to load, so straight box scoring on this one. While Michigan did out hit the Eagles in this one, we were stranding runners and getting killed on the base paths again. Michigan left 10 runners on base, and had another 4 either picked off or caught stealing. The running game had been fairly solid for us of late after a shaky start.

Sinnery didn’t have too poor of a start. Yes, he did give up the 2 run home run, but those runs were the only ones he gave up in the first 5 which is an decent start. The last run came after he was pulled in the 6th inning. With runners on first and second, EMU manufactured the run by using the sacrifice bunt two times in a row (one being a suicide squeeze). It’s a tough way to give up a run, but it happens.

On offense, we got on base quite often, but we couldn’t get anything going. Along with the base running problems mentioned earlier, we also weren’t hitting well with runners in scoring position. The team went 0/5 with runners in scoring position, and 0/3 with an RBI with a runner on third. The one RBI came from a Cislo ground out that allowed Kalcynzski to score. Poor base running and no hitting when runners are in scoring position means you have to live and die by the long ball. No extra base hits today. Death.

Notable Stars

• Anthony Toth – 2/4
• Bullpen (Miller/Burgoon) – 4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 4 K

Notable Goats

• Cislo/Fellows/LaMarre/Dufek – Each left 2 runners stranded
• Cislo/Fellows – picked off trying to steal (caught stealing)
• Kalczynski/Urban – picked off not trying to steal

Side Note

• Fellows moved to right field for this game, supposedly for defensive purposes as it was rather windy at the Fish yesterday. This is not expected to be a permanent move.

Extra Reading

• The Daily – Overconfidence Hurts
• MLive – Great Showing by EMU
• MGoBlue – Standard SID recap

Michigan Insider Podcast

Coach Maloney continued his Michigan Insider Podcast on WTKA. They touched a lot on the recent news of Barry Larkin and Branch Rickey entering the NCAA College Baseball Hall of Fame. Coach said they are working on improving the baseball history portrayed in the lobby of the Fish. They are working on getting more pictures and history up on the walls to show just how rich the history of the program is.

Maloney also walked through the Big10 season. He tabbed Iowa as a scrappy team that always takes games from us when we don’t expect it. The weather may be an equalizer to help them. He expects Minnesota, Ohio State, Indiana, and Illinois to all compete for the Big10 crown without anyone really running away with it. Our lack of experience may cause problems, but he’s hopeful it won’t show its ugly head too often.

Other News

Chicago MLB Wolverines

As Brian@mgoblog linked in mgo.licio.us, Chris Getz and Clayton Richards both made the Chicago White Sox roster for the season. While Brian says this should make all you Chicagoland fans White Sox fans, I will offer you Cubs fans a bone. Jake Fox is one of the first call ups for the Cubs if anyone in their outfield is injured. He won’t be starting like Getz will, but at least its something.  Also, there is some speculation that Getz’s starting is just temporary as the White Sox are preparing for a bigger prospect to take his place.  These two, and potential third, combine with J.J. Putz, ex-closer for the Mariners now with the Mets, and Rich Hill, pitcher with the Orioles, to be the four Wolverines on MLB rosters to start the season.

Hall of Fame

Going back to what was mentioned in the Michigan Insider Podcast, Michigan has two guys making the list of inductees this year. Branch Rickey was not just a great player at Michigan, but also was the general manager who brought Jackie Robinson to the major leagues to break the color barrier. His bio via the College Baseball Foundation:

Among the 2009 Hall of Fame class is one Vintage-Era inductee and the first “small school” inductee.

Branch Rickey, player and coach from Ohio Wesleyan and Michigan is the Vintage-Era inductee. The Vintage-Era designation is for those who played or coached prior to 1947.

Barry Larkin is probably the more notable inductee to most of you. Larkin was a long time staple at the Cincinnati Reds, but before that, he taking Michigan to the College World Series:

Michigan’s Barry Larkin was a two-time first-team All-American shortstop. He was the first two-time Big Ten Player of the Year and in 1983 he was the Big Ten Postseason Tournament MVP. He twice led the Wolverines to the College World Series and finished his career with a .361 batting average.

Iowa Game Time Changed

The opener to the Big10 season is Friday at Iowa. The game has been moved from 6pm to 4 pm CDT (7 to 5pm EDT). The weather looks to be windy and rainy.

Posted under Baseball

Stat	Person/Team	Rank
Ks/9	Team	20th
HR/G	Team	37th
FLD%	Team	29th
R/G	Cislo	32th
RBi/G	LaMarre	32th
BB/9	Fetter	60th

So I put out the Stat Watch a few days too early as the NCAA released their first set of weekly statistic releases. While I can’t get you a direct link to the Michigan page (or haven’t figured out a way so far), it isn’t hard to get to it by starting here. To get to the Michigan page, go to Division I, week of 3/23/09, Team All Statistics. We’re team #61 (as sorted by batting average). Click on Michigan and you’ll see how we stack up in 25 team categories, and how our team leaders stack up in 32 individual statistics. Most individual leader boards top out at about 300 players. Katzman and Fetter both show up in a few of the pitching categories while Cislo, Dufek, LaMarre, Urban, and Toth all show up in the offensive categories. I’ve included some of the more notable rankings for Michigan in the chart to the right.

Something else I noticed, Arizona thanks us for that 6 GDP game, as they now rank first in double plays per game.

Yes, I am using this statistic site to distract me from the fact that we lost to Eastern Michigan today.

Posted under Baseball

Reminder: EMU game is bumped up to today (Tuesday). Live Stats and Live Audio available through mgoblue.com.  Preview and recap of the last meeting with EMU games are available.

In this edition of stat watch, we’ll catch back up with team hitting, and get caught up on offense. Pitching numbers are still rough, but we’ll at least take a look at the leader boards and look at the potential starting rotation for our upcoming 5-game weeks of the conference season. I’ll have a mix of Excel Graphs and ManyEyes (individual statistics). At this point, I can’t get the ManyEye’s visuals to embed, allowing you to play with the data and charts. So instead, its back to the basic Excel graphs.

Team Hitting

Above is the game by game batting average (blue), on-base percentage (red), and slugging percentage (yellow) for the team as it has accumulated over the season. As you can see, we appear to be reaching a fairly consistent level of production over the last 7 games or so. Game 12 is the last game of the Siena series, so everything after that would include the Arizona series, @EMU, and the IPFW series.

Our current batting average is .321, on-base percentage .410, and slugging percentage of .495. These are pretty solid numbers. The average batting average for the NCAA (last assembled in April 08) was approximately .292. Over the last few years, the NCAA average has been in the mid .280s.

As far as slugging, I have yet to find an NCAA-wide statistic, so I’ll compare it to the last few years of Michigan. The last five years final numbers are .489, .478, .417, .429, and .413. We’re still early in this year, but we look to be doing rather well for ourselves in the power department, at least compared to previous teams.

When looking at other Big10 teams, we can get a slightly better idea of where we compare this year. Keep in mind that there is a definite difference in competition faced.

Team	Record	RPI	BA	OB%	SLG%
Minnesota	13-6	20	.309	.432	.526
Ohio State	17-2	22	.350	.405	.550
Illinois	12-4	48	.322	.411	.438
Michigan	14-5	117	.321	.410	.495
Penn State	11-8	143	.308	.396	.401
Purdue	8-9	194	.286	.381	.411
Indiana	7-13	220	.338	.412	.500
Michigan State	6-14	227	.253	.339	.356
Iowa	6-10	228	.289	.382	.451
Northwestern	4-14	238	.252	.323	.344

I have the table sorted by RPI (as of Sunday morning), so theoretically, the teams the have done well against better competition should be at the top. Michigan places 4th in the Big10 in batting average, 4th in on-base percentage, and 4th in slugging percentage. Go figure we’re currently 4th in RPI. It makes sense as Ohio State has been destroying every pitching staff they’ve seen (mostly inferior teams). Indiana is scoring a ton of runs, but they are giving them up at a startling rate (check out this football score of 28-17 in a loss to Northern Iowa). Overall, I’d say we’re doing pretty well.

RBIs vs Left on Base and Pitching after the jump.

Read More…

Posted under Baseball

EMU Overview

Box Score													R	H	E
Michigan	0	0	8		0	1	0		0	2	0		11	11	3
EMU	0	0	0		2	0	0		1	0	0		3	6	0

W – Brandon Sinnery (1-0)   L – Glover (1-2)

Hitting

Kevin Cislo, Image from mgoblue.com

Hurray for not being shut out!  Michigan bounced back from the slow weekend with a parade of hits in the third inning, lead by Kevin Cislo.  Cislo went 3/5 in the game with 3 runs and 2 RBIs.  In the third inning alone, he lead off with a double, stole third, scored a run, hit another double to plate 2 RBIs, and then scored again.  That’s one super productive inning.

Speaking of that inning, the team scored 8 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks.  Two runners advanced on balks, and two runners advanced on wild pitches.  Everything was going right for the Wolverines as they batted 11 in the frame.

Hitting was contagious as every starter except Alan Oaks had a hit in the game.  Speaking of starters, one name you won’t see in today’s starting lineup was Justin Lorenz.  Urban got the start at third, and Oaks in right field.  I’m not certain, but this may be a regular thing for a little while.  Lorenz hasn’t produced to the means we need him to.  The interesting part of this is if Oaks produces either.  In his two starts, he has yet to register a hit.  I like the move myself.  Oaks has a better history and more experience on his side.  I imagine he’ll find his swing pretty soon.   It’s something to keep an eye on as the we enter the conference season.

Pitching

Something else to keep an eye on is Brandon Sinnery and a chance at the weekend rotation.  The freshman had a fairly solid start – or great start if you compare him to anyone lately not named Fetter – against the Eagles.  Sinnery lasted 5 innings, allowing 2 runs on 4 hits, 2 walks, and 3 strikeouts.  I’ll take that against most teams.

The bullpen also looked considerably better.  Wilson had his second solid appearance, giving up an unearned run.  Cislo had a throwing error on a fielders choice trying to throw to second base.  Without radio, I’m not sure what happened, but a run scored on the play.

Burgoon threw a scoreless eighth, allowing a single up the middle, but striking out two.  Mike Dufek finished the game with three strikeouts and a walk in the 9th inning.  This was a much needed confidence booster for both pitchers.

Notable Stars

• Kevin Cislo – 3/5  2 RBI, 3 R,  2 2B, SB
• Ryan LaMarre – 2/4  RBI, R, BB, SB
• Anthony Toth – 1/2  RBI, 2 R, BB
• Brandon Sinnery –  5 IP, 2 R, 2 BB, 3 K
• Team Base Running – 4/4 in steals
• Team LOB – only 5 left on base

Notable Goats

• Kevin Cislo – His error lead to a run

Thoughts

Having not seen or heard the game, but only having the box score and recap, I’m just as clueless as most of you as to how the game actually went.  If someone miraculously made it to the game, drop a comment.

Not in the Polls

Poll	Current	LW
RPI (3/17/09)	134	106
NCBWA	NR*	25
Collegiate Baseball	NR	28
BaseballAmerica	NR	NR
Ping!Baseball	NR	NR
Rivals	NR	NR
USA Today/ESPN	42*	28*

Surprise! Not really.  Michigan shows up in the receiving votes of two polls (NCBWA and Coaches), but is completely out of the Collegiate Baseball News.  No surprise there.  I’d estimate that the only reason we’re receiving votes still is due to writers or coaches not knowing what’s going on with the team.  No different than any of the other major sport polls.  RPI won’t make any jumps upward this weekend unless everyone above us and directly below us all get swept.  EMU and IPFW are in the 260-270 range of RPI right now.  They don’t really help the strength of schedule.

Minnesota shows up in BA (other receiving votes in NCBWA, and even got consideration in Rivals(!!!)), Ohio State in NCBWA and Collegiate, Illinois received votes in NCBWA. All three received votes in the coaches poll, including Illinois at #26, Ohio State #35, and Minnesota #43. Minnesota getting an honorable mention by Rivals is pretty surprising as Rivals usually doesn’t award northern teams much credit. Even if we would have swept Arizona in dominating fashion, we just might have gotten credit. Minnesota took two of three from highly ranked TCU this weekend, bumping their RPI to #17.

Coach Maloney Interviews

Coach Maloney does a weekly interview on WTKA 1050 am in Ann Arbor for the Michigan Insider radio show Wednesday mornings. I just found out about the podcast last week, so I thought I’d share it with the baseball followers we’ve got here.

Maloney also had a one-on-one interview with collegebaseballtoday.com’s Eric Sorenson this weekend in Arizona. I’ll point you over there for the full interview, but here’s a answer I found pretty interesting:

Well, as I said, we lost so many guys and we couldn’t replenish ourselves from a recruiting standpoint because we couldn’t use that money. So we did the best that we could and got some good guys, but they’re young. What we’re doing now is playing a lot of walk-on guys who have been in the system for a while. They’re actually really good college players and they’re doing a great job. They’re hungry. […]

So when I knew we were losing some of our top players last year I knew I had to replenish them. So how was I going to do this? I’ve had to develop them over the course of time and keep them believing they’re going to have an opportunity at some point.

Pretty interesting stuff there.  Coach talks a lot about how most of his budget goes to travel rather than recruiting or scholarships.

Home Opener Friday

IPFW makes it into town on Friday for a 3pm start time. The weather is supposed to be sunny, but cold temperatures start to roll in on Thursday. Game time temperatures will be in the 40s. Sunday is currently forecasts to be rainy as well. Such is baseball weather in March for the Wolverines.

Make sure you grab your blankets, ski masks, pocket warmers, blankets, coats, flasks, and blankets to stay warm at the game. If you’re smart, you’ll sit right behind the dugouts as they generally have space heaters running full blast that spill over to the front row.

Posted under Baseball

Reminder, Tim’s basketball preview can be found below.

Sorry for the prolonged absence right as things got started, but sometimes real life just jumps in the way. As for the baseball team, they continued without me, to a rather successful weekend.  I’ll get the game recaps out of the way first, then get a couple of the usual mid week updates out of the way as well.

Michigan 11, Siena 3
Box Score
W -Chris Fetter (2-0) L – Chaput (1-1)

The first game didn’t start so well: Chris Fetter’s second pitch of the game went well over Kenny Fellow’s head in left, out of the park, placing Siena up 1-0. He then gave up a walk and a single with no outs, but a strike out and 4-6-3 double play ended the rally. Despite this early scare, Fetter ended the game with 7 innings pitched, 11 strike outs, and one walk. He gave up 6 hits, two of them were solo home runs. Those two home runs would be all the runs Fetter would give up. Brandon Sinnery would close out the last two innings, giving up 1 run on two hits, one walk, and two strike outs. Great day for Michigan pitching.

Offense didn’t disappoint either. Michigan belted three home runs on the day from Nick Urban, Justin Lorenz, and Alan Oaks. The homeruns for Urban and Lorenz were their first career home runs for Michigan. It was good to see Lorenz make some noise; he was only hitting .125 coming into the weekend, with both previous hits coming in one game. Oaks made the most of his first pinch hitting appearance of the season after returning from illness, knocking a 2-run homer.

I won’t go too much into the hitting, as every hitter in this game had at least one hit. Five starters had more than one hit. One defensive note, Nick Urban had one hell of a diving catch in right field to start the second inning. He made a catch at full extension catch on a low fly ball. I love the defense, so props to Urban. It would have made Web Gems.

Notable Stars

• Chris Fetter – 7 IP, 2 ER, 11K, BB
• Nick Urban – 2/4 3 RBI, 2 Rs, HR, web gem
• Tim Kalczynski – 2/4 2 Rs

Notable Goats

• um…? Ryan LaMarre was the only player without a run or RBI? Yeah, I got nothing.

Michigan 13, Siena 3
Box Score
W – Eric Katzman (2-1) L – Hartman (0-3)

As Other Chris pointed out in her tweet, no radio for this game, just stats. Looking at the play-by-play, Katzman looked pretty shaky in this game, but managed to avoid much more damage. I’m not sure if that’s a good thing or a bad thing at this point. As I mentioned in a previous comment, I didn’t really expect Katzman to repeat his week 1 performance very often. He’s still working on becoming a guy who can go more than 5 innings, it just hasn’t happened yet.

This game was no different as Siena was on base early and often. The Saints left 8 on base during Katzman’s 5 2/3 innings of work. That’s not something we want to see. Neither is a run scoring wild pitch from Katzman. You really have to hope Eric holds up over the season. This is by far the most pitching he’s done in a season since at least high school.

The bullpen did pretty well. Burgoon got Katzman out of the 6th inning, stranding one of Katzman’s baserunners. He worked a pretty quick 7th inning, but did give up a solo home run. Matt Gerbe finished the game with 2 shutout innings.

Offense is what won this game for us. Ryan LaMarre is a beast. Ryan went 3 for 4 in this game with 2 home runs, 4 RBIs, and 3 runs. He even stole a base. By himself, Ryan LaMarre outscored the entire Siena team; that’s a great feeling. Mike Dufek also poured on the offense, going 2 for 4 with a home run, a double, 2 runs, and 2 RBIs.

A big positive from this game was production from the bottom of the order. Coley Crank made the best of his spot start at catcher, going 3 for 3 with 2 RBIs. John Lorenz registered his first single of the year (actually two of them) in a 2 for 4 performance with a run scored. Toth, still in the 9-hole, finished 1 for 4 with a run and an RBI.

Notable Stars

• Ryan LaMarre – 3/4 4 RBIs, 3 Rs, BB, SB,
• Mike Dufek – 2/4 2 RBIs, 2 Rs, BB
• Kevin Cislo – 2/5 RBI, 2 Rs
• Eric Katzman – 5 2/3 IP, 2 R, 1 ER, 7 K, 1 BB

Notable Goats

• Justin Lorenz – Error leading to a run
• Eric Katzman – baserunners a plenty and a wild pitch for a run

Michigan 19, Siena 6
Box Score
W – Travis Smith (2-1) L – Sohl (0-2)

The offense that caught fire in the middle innings of the first game of the double header continued on in game 2. Michigan logged 19 runs on 20 hits, including 4 doubles and 3 home runs. Thirteen different Wolverines logged a hit in the game. The only player in the game not to was Tim Kalczynski, who only batted once. He along with Fellows were the only players in the game not to score a run. It was an all around whooping.

Ryan LaMarre lead the team with 4 RBIs coming off of a fielder’s choice and a three run homer. Cislo, Crank, and Oaks each had three runs scored a piece. Crank lead the team with three hits, giving him 6 total in the double header. Along with the previously mentioned LaMarre, home run, both Mike Dufek and Garrett Stephens also collected home runs.

We knocked the Siena bull pen around until it exploded. Eight different pitchers were thrown against us, two of which didn’t even record an out. Only one pitcher managed to not give up a run.

Michigan’s pitching, on the other hand, was quite solid. Travis Smith put in 6 strong innings of work, giving up only 2 earned runs (and 1 unearned). He also struck out 8 while only giving up 4 hits and 2 walks. I’ll take that kind of start every week. It will be interesting to see if he moves up to the game 2 starter or if Coach Maloney will leave the right/left/right handed rotation.

Matt Miller and Jeff DeCarlo threw the last 3 innings. Miller looked good but had an unearned run scored upon him. DeCarlo continued to look shaky, but at least he didn’t hit anybody this time out. He did give up 2 earned runs (one unearned).

Speaking of all of these unearned runs, what was up with the defense? I’m not just talking about this game, but the last few. We’ve given up 10 unearned runs in the last two weekends (7 games). That’s not very good. Our team percentage of .963 isn’t too bad, but our opponents are definitely making us pay for our mistakes. I’ll probably take a look at our opponents’ fielding percentage and earned vs unearned runs scored in my next Stat Watch.

Notable Stars

• You Pick’em, you’re probably right.

Notable Goats

• McLouth & Lorenz errors lead to unearned runs

POTW Honors

Ryan LaMarre picked up Big10 Player of the Week (shared with Illinois’s Aaron Johnson) honors for his weekend performance. His weekend totals:

H/AB	OB%	SLG%	RBI	R	HR	BB	K
6/12	.571	1.250	8	4	3	2	2

And he had an outfield assist. Ryan LaMarre is a beast.

BigTen Hardball All Weekend Team

Dufek, LaMarre, Crank, Fetter all make the list. The team this week was a bit lengthy. Too many players are playing too well right now. Illinois makes a lot of noise on the list as they took 2 of 3 from #1 LSU in Baton Rouge.

Poll Watching

Poll	Current	LW
RPI	106	TBA
NCBWA	25	28
Collegiate Baseball	28	28
BaseballAmerica	NR	NR
Ping!Baseball	NR	NR
Rivals	NR	NR
USA Today/ESPN	28*	32*

*in also receiving votes

Illinois also jumped us in the NCBWA and Collegiate Baseball polls after taking 2 of 3 from previous #1 LSU. RPI is now available through Boyd’s World. We’re pretty low and for good reason, we haven’t played many good teams yet. Ohio State and Illinois both sit in the top 20, at #15 and #16 respectively. They both have had impressive games against good opponents this season. The best team we’ve played so far is Jacksonville at #64, who we split a double header with. Arizona, this weekend’s opponent is currently #61.

Programming Schedule

Next post will probably be the Arizona preview. I hope to get it out by tomorrow night, but I’ve got 4 games to umpire tomorrow. We’ll see if I can get it in before Friday morning.

Posted under Baseball

Polls are in. Somehow Michigan stills shows up in three of them. Your guess is as good as mine on how we didn’t even drop in the Collegiate Baseball poll. The Coaches’ Poll (USA Today/ESPN) last week was technically the preseason, so our initial start is why we went up. Also, we faced two of the coaches voting in that poll, in Jacksonville’s Alexander Terry (who we beat 21-3 and lost 10-2) and St. John’s Ed Blankenmeyer (a team we shut down despite their being an offensive juggernaut). Another note, while pointless right now, I included the Ping! Poll in the chart. May we one day be in it.

Poll	Current	LW
RPI	TBA	TBA
NCBWA	28	25
Collegiate Baseball	28	28
BaseballAmerica	NR	NR
Ping!Baseball	NR	NR
Rivals	NR	NR
USA Today/ESPN	32*	37*

*In others receiving votes section

BigTenHardball details their all weekend team. I can’t argue with any omissions like I did last week with collegebaseball360. BTH’s Brian does some quality work. Dufek might have warranted a honorable mention for his work in the bullpen, but it wasn’t that much of an oversight. Michigan showed up as follows.

• 2B – Kevin Cislo
• OF – Ryan LaMarre
• BN – Anthony Toth
• BN – Jake McLouth
• 4th SP – Chris Fetter

Something else stands out in the list, and the rankings for that matter: Ohio State has come out of near nowhere to start the season and is playing some high quality ball. I figured them to be a candidate to vie with Indiana for third in the conference, but now… watch out.

Pythagorean Theorem. Happy Valley Hardball put out their first look at the Pythagorean Theorem for team winning percentages. The idea is that expected winning percentage is a function of runs scored and runs allowed. Currently Michigan shows up as third best in the conference, in a power poll sort of way. The emphasis on Penn State is obviously his.

	Team	Runs Scored	Runs Allowed	Pyth %	Delta
1	Ohio State	67	42	0.718	-0.282
2	Illinois	47	31	0.697	-0.136
3	Michigan.	73	58	0.613	-0.165
4	Indiana	38	31	0.600	0.000
5	Minnesota	40	35	0.566	-0.148
6	Purdue	42	45	0.466	0.132
7	Michigan St	23	37	0.279	0.112
8	Penn State	25	42	0.262	-0.024
9	Northwestern	29	52	0.237	-0.013
10	Iowa	22	58	0.126	-0.041

Loss to Jacksonville Looks Better.  I didn’t say good, but Jacksonville beat #6 Florida State in the midweek matchup.  As stated previously, midweek games can really hurt teams.  Another case this week was Indiana losing to Indiana State.  Just beating some of these teams will lower our RPI later in the season, losing will really hurt.  I still think we’ll lose one or two of these games later in the season, including one against Notre Dame.

Baseball Programming Update. I’ve got another pretty busy weekend planned this time around. I plan to have the Siena update out late Thursday night. I’m not sure what I’m going to do for the Mets. If anything comes out in the weekly release, I’ll be sure to let you know. It should be out today or tomorrow.

Posted under Baseball

In this edition of Stat Watch, we continue are look into the baseball teams offensive attack, but we start experimenting with pitching as well. I’ve also been playing with a new data/graphing system throughout the day, so graphs may show up and disappear as Paul and I work in the upgrade.

Hitting

The hitting stats are becoming more refined as batters are starting to accumulate at-bats. Our current at-bat leader (40 ABs) is Jake McLouth, who newly moved into the clean up position, has still yet to draw a walk this season. Cislo and Fellows pull up the rear with 31 ABs. I left Berset and Lorenz out of those numbers as they are replaced fairly consistently and have about 2/3 less the number of plate appearances as Cislo and Fellows.

The batting average didn’t quite make the jump you’d expect after winning a game 21-3 with 19 hits. Last week we ended with a .288 batting average; this week we end with a .291 average. Not much improvement right there.

As you can see, on-base-percentage also didn’t make a jump either. We actually lost .003 points down to .406 this week. This kind of comes off a little bit weird. I would have thought the Jacksonville 19-hit affair would have raised the percentage, but as they say, one game doesn’t make the season.

The rest of our games have been pretty abysmal in terms of hitting, and it shows in the following graph. What we have here is average hits (H/9), runs (R/9), walks (plus hit by pitch, BB/9), and strike outs (K/9) per 9 innings of hitting.

It’s encouraging to see our runs per nine innings going so high. It would be pretty high even if you took our 21 run game and made it 8, our current average, it would still have us scoring about 6.67 runs per game. That’s should be enough to compete well in any league… at least if our pitching keeps up their side of the deal.

I’d also like to point out the strike out’s per nine innings. That number has continued to grow as we’ve gone along, which is a definite problem. We’re currently averaging over a strike out per inning (9.11/9-innings). It’s killing several of our innings.

Lineup Changes

As mentioned in the weekend recap, we had a few lineup changes this weekend. Let’s take a little bit at a look why, just so you out there get a better idea of what’s going on. First, let’s look at McLouth vs Dufek.

On the left, we can see McLouth is hitting leaps and bounds above Dufek. Dufek is .182 points behind in average alone. In the slugging category, McLouth is averaging .279 more bases per at bat. In more basic terms, McLouth averages an extra single every 4 at bats he takes. That’s a very sizable gap.

This move places a better hitter behind our best player, Ryan LaMarre. By doing this, pitchers cannot pitch around and walk LaMarre without fear of giving up more runs. With Dufek struggling behind LaMarre, we may lose a few runs each game that his struggles continue.

The second move by Coach Maloney was to switch Anthony Toth and Kenny Fellows. Toth mainly batting in the 2-hole, as we can see in the graph below, was getting on consistently, but he was not able to put the ball in play and move the runners on base around or gather many RBIs.

Looking at the two players’ production, the on base numbers are currently very consistent, and both are rather good. The difference is the hitting, which Fellows has done better and more consistently better. Fellows is currently hitting .387, as compared to .250 for Toth.

By switching the two batters, Maloney is hoping that Toth will still continue his pace with walks, setting the table for the top of the order. The hope for Fellows is that he continues to hit and get on base, driving in more runs, moving the runners a head of him into scoring position, and still get on base to score for the heart of the order behind him.

The ideal inning would start with a Toth walk, a Cislo single on a hit and run putting runners at first and third, a Cislo steal right before a Fellows RBI single. LaMarre either walks or hits a double, followed by a McLouth double, and then either struggle through Dufek and Berset to try to eek out a last run before Lorenz comes up, as he’s statistically an out. That kind of inning is 5-7 runs, which are the kind of innings that win college baseball games.

Leader Board – Offense

Average		On Base%		Slugging%
Player	AVG	Player	OB%	Player	SLG%
Ryan LaMarre	.421	Kenny Fellows	.500	Ryan LaMarre	.711
Kenny Fellows	.387	T-Ryan LaMarre	.488	Jake McLouth	.650
Jake McLouth	.350	T-Kevin Cislo	.488	Nick Urban	.486
Runs Batted In		Runs		Walks + HBP
Player	RBI	Player	R	Player	BB/HBP
Ryan LaMarre	17	Kevin Cislo	13	T-Kevin Cislo	12
Jake McLouth	10	Anthony Toth	11	T-Anthony Toth	12
T-Toth/Fellows	7	Ryan LaMarre	9	Mike Dufek	8
Steals		Doubles		Home Runs
Player	SB	Player	2B	Player	HR
Kevin Cislo	5	Nick Urban	4	Jake McLouth	4
Ryan LaMarre	3	T-Kevin Cislo	3	Ryan LaMarre	3
Anthony Toth	2	T-John Lorenz	3	Mike Dufek	2

Pitching

And here’s where things get fun. Instead of showing trends, which don’t help much over 2 appearances or less than 15 innings, I think I’m going to look through some of the team statistics. This process may be adjusted to individual pitchers by the time the conference season rolls around.

Here we see the opponent batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage. The opponent batting average is currently .306, the on base percentage is .343, and the slugging percentage is .442 for the season. The on base numbers aren’t too bad, which surprises the heck out of me. Its amazing how such a bad weekend can make you forget how great a weekend the BigEast/Big10 Challenge really was on the mound. Opponents are out hitting us and out slugging us this season, which is never a good sign. We should be looking to get that opponent average down into the .290s or less. On base percentages need to drop to the .310s at the highest, and slugging… well it has a lot of room for improvement.

In this chart we have the “per 9 innings” stats of our opponents accumulated through the season. This just breaks down the previous chart into reasons why we are getting out hit. Opponents average an extra .5 hits per game, which isn’t much, but we average about 1.5 more walks per game. We also strike out about one more time per game than our opponents. I would put ideal numbers to be at to be H/9 ~ 8, K/9 ~ 9, BB/9 ~ 2, and ERA around 4.00. Right now the ERA is pretty close to what we would want in a season, but we should never just settle. We should always strive to improve the numbers.

Leader Board – Pitching

Starter ERA		Innings		Starter Ks
Player	ERA	Player	INN	Player	Ks
Chris Fetter	1.64	Eric Katzman	11.2	Chris Fetter	13
Eric Katzman	3.09	Chris Fetter	11	Travis Smith	10
Travis Smith	4.70	Kolby Wood	10.2	All 3 others	6
Relief ERA		Relief App		Relief Ks
Player	ERA	Player	APP	Player	Ks
Mike Dufek	1.80	Tyler Burgoon	4	Matt Miller	11
Tyler Burgoon	3.12	T-Matt Miller	3	Mike Dufek	6
Matt Miller	3.86	T-Matt Gerbe	3	Tyler Burgoon	5
Oppon BA		Walks+HBP/9IP		Saves
Player	BA	Player	BB/HBP	Player	Sv
Mike Dufek	.125	Chris Fetter	2.45	T-Mike Dufek	1
Matt Miller	.185	T-Mike Dufek	3.6	T-Tyler Burgoon	1
Chris Fetter	.233	T-Brandon Sinnery	3.6*	T-Matt Miller	1

*This is the only stat Sinnery can claim he’s doing well in right now.

Next week I’ll look at some of these same stats and hopefully have some better news on the pitching front.  I plan on working into some more advance statistics as the season moves along, I’ve just been bogged down with other things.

Posted under Baseball

Reminder: Tim will appear on The Big Show with John U. Bacon on 1050 WTKA at 3:30 this afternoon.

This week saw a stark change on the mound for Michigan. The beautiful pitching performances of last week were replaced with some rough and tumble innings for nearly the entire pitching staff. On offense, things started to pick up in the power department, and things looked pretty solid. Still, we managed to go 2-2 in the weekend tournament, bringing forward some serious questions about making the NCAA tournament at the end of the season.

Wisconsin-Milwaukee Recap

Michigan 11, Wisconsin-Milwaukee 19
Box Score
W – Lucas Annen (1-0) L – Travis Smith (0-1)

Ryan LaMarre, Image from mgoblue

Wisconsin-Milwaukee came into this fresh off a horrible series in Arizona State where the top 10 Sun Devils destroyed the Panthers in nearly every aspect of the game. UW-M was hungry for a win, and fueled by some apparent bulletin board material, the Panthers came out swinging.

Michigan started in the bottom of the 1st with a 3 run frame that would set the high scoring pace for the rest of the game. After Cislo single and Toth walk, Ryan LaMarre hit a 3 run blast in the inning, the first of his two home runs. All was well so far.

Travis Smith ran into trouble in the third. Up 4-2, Mike Dufek started the inning with a fielding error. A few plays later, Toth let a ball get away from him for the second error of the inning. By the end of the inning, we would see Smith pulled after giving up 6 runs. One of the runs was scored while relief pitcher DeCarlo had entered the game, but was charged to Smith as it was his baserunner. DeCarlo was pretty horrid in that 1/3 inning of work in which he hit two batters, gave up the RBI single, and threw a wild pitch.

Well that hurt. Now down 8-4, Michigan began to chip away, eventually coming within a 9-7 margin from a pair of RBI singles by Toth and LaMarre and a McLouth solo home run.

Then came the dagger from the Panthers. After a fairly successful 5th inning by reliever Losorelli (his first career appearance), the wheels fell off in the 6th inning. Losorelli gave up 4 straight singles to open the inning and threw a wild pitch (which actually lead to an out at the plate). At this point, Miller came in to the game to stop continue the bleeding. After immediately throwing a wild pitch to give up a run, he induced a ground ball, gave up two walks in a row to force in a run, then back to back base clearing doubles. Seven runs scored that inning and Michigan was down 16-7.

Michigan tried to answer in the bottom half of the inning when after a pair of walks to Cislo and Toth, Ryan LaMarre knocked his second 3 run homer, giving him 7 RBIs on the day. Michigan wouldn’t get any more runs in the 6th, and would only plate one more in the 8th. UW-M would answer that run with three more of their own in the top of the 9th, making the final score UM-W 19, Michigan 11.

Bummer.

Notable Stars

• Ryan LaMarre – 4/5 7 RBI, 2 R, 2 HR
• Anthony Toth – 2/4 3 R, 2 RBI, 2 BB
• Kevin Cislo – 1/3 3 R, 2 BB, 2B

Notable Goats

• Toth and Dufek’s error in the 2nd giving up 4 unearned runs, putting us behind big early
• Cislo’s error giving up an unearned run.
• Every pitcher except Vangheluwe hit a batter – DeCarlo hit three, Smith/Miller/Losorelli each had one, four of those runners scored
• Wild pitches – each reliever had one
• The pitching staff gave up 15 earned runs.

A lot of this loss falls on the shoulders of the pitching staff. The two errors in the 2nd though really killed momentum. I give credit to the Panthers, they came out swinging and never let up. This game was an absolute waste of Ryan LaMarre’s talent. To get 7 RBIs and still come up short of the win is horrible.

Jacksonville Game 1 Recap
Michigan 21, Jacksonville 3
Box Score
W – Chris Fetter (1-0) L –

Chris Fetter, Image from mgoblue

So obviously this game went quite a bit better from both the pitching and hitting standpoint. Chris Fetter reminded everyone that the Michigan team isn’t completely devoid of consistency on the mound by throwing 6 innings of shut out baseball while only allowing 4 hits while walking none and striking out 7. Great game by the captain.

Brandon Sinnery also had an alright performance, at least compared to his last two outings. In three innings, he gave up 3 runs, all in his first inning of work. He buckled down after a rough seventh, only allowing 2 base runners, one of which was erased by a game ending double play.

Rather than detail the 21 runs and how they were scored, I’ll let the notable stars do most of the talking for the batters as there were plenty of them. Its also worth noting that several of the backups got mop up duty during this game, including 2-3 that hadn’t seen playing time yet. Mike Kittle and Bryce Aspinwall really made the most of their opportunities, which is great for the two of them.

Notable Stars

• Ryan LaMarre – 2/4 4 RBI, 2 R, BB, 2 K, HR
• Jake McLouth – 2/4 R, RBI
• Mike Dufek – 3/5 2 R, RBI, HR, 2B
• Anthony Toth – 2/7 4 RBI, 2 R, 2B
• Kevin Cislo – 2/4 2 RBI, 3 R, 2B
• Kenny Fellows – 2/5 3 RBI, 2 R, 2B
• John Lorenz – 2/3 4 R, RBI, 2 2B (his first career hits)
• Chris Fetter – 6IP, 0 R, 7 K, 4 H, 1 HBP

Notable Goats

No real goats this game as we won 21-3. Solid game by the offense and on the mound. Toth had an error, but it didn’t affect the score.

Jacksonville Game 2 Recap
Michigan 10, Jacksonville 2
Box Score
W – Carson Andrew (2-0) L -Eric Katzman (1-1)

I have to give it to the Dolphins, despite being shellacked in game one, they didn’t let it bother them going into game two. The game started as a pitchers duel between Katzman and Andrew. The only run in the first four innings came on a Berset RBI double with Fellows on first.

Ryan LaMarre, Image from mgoblue

In the fifth, the Dolphins jumped on the board as Katzman started to lose his placement on his fastball and break on his off speed pitches. Katzman walked 3 batters and gave up a single giving up a run and loading the bases. Burgoon came in to try and get a stop, but the first batter he faced knocked a single right back up the middle scoring two, both charged to Katzman.

Burgoon would give up 3 runs in the 6th. Matt Gerbe would give up 3 in the 7th and one in the 9th. Michigan meanwhile couldn’t get the offense started against either Dolphin pitcher. Andrew and Loosen combined to go the full 9 only giving up 7 hits, 2 walks, and 2 runs while striking out 13. The second run came from a lead off home run in the 9th inning by Jake McLouth.

So maybe we should have saved some of the offense in game 1 for game 2?

Notable Stars

• Jake McLouth – 2/4 R, RBI, HR
• Chris Berset – 1/3 RBI, 2B
• Eric Katzman’s first four innings – 0 R, 3 K, 2 H, 1 GDP, 1 HBP

Notable Goats

• Eric Katzman’s fourth inning – 3 R, 3 BBs, 1 H, 2 outs
• Mike Dufek – 0/4 2 left on base, 3 Ks (hat trick)
• Kenny Fellows – 0/3 2 left on base

The offense just sounded lethargic. We couldn’t get anything going and the two pitchers for Jacksonville looked like the best pitchers we’ll face all year. This loss really hurts (being the second of the weekend and following such a large route). With two losses to these types of teams (outside the top 100), Michigan is going to need to be impressive down the stretch of the OOC schedule, or immensely impressive in the Big10 season to make sure we at least secure an at large bid to the tournament. I’m not saying I expect us to lose in the Big10 Tourney just yet, but there will be much more competition this season.

Akron Recap
Michigan10, Akron 7
Box Score
W – Mike Dufek (1-0) L – Alex Loftin (0-1)

Kevin Cislo, Image from Churl flickr

Again with the comebacks. This time it happened in the 8th inning, the last inning that was played. Michigan’s travel plans cut the game short, which occasionally happens in college.

Michigan started the game by taking a 1-0 lead on a Jake McLouth RBI ground out to the firstbase side of the pitcher. The lead wouldn’t last long, however, because starter Kolby Wood was giving up runs early and often. Wood gave up at least one run in each of his 5 innings of work, allowing Akron to jump out to a lead of 7-2. In his defense (or by lack of defense), 2 runs given up in the third were both unearned as Toth booted a potential inning ending ground ball.

In the top of the 6th, Michigan started chipping away at the Zips’ lead. Urban began the inning by being hit by the pitch. He would have to leave the game to have the left wrist looked at. I’ve yet to hear the extent of the injury, and imagine he should be back by next weekend. When they take players out it is generally just precautionary to check for broken bones. Hopefully that’s not the case.

Timmy Kalcyznski homered to follow the hit by pitch. To close out the scoring, Ryan LaMarre had an infield single on the hit-and-run to knock in Cislo. Michigan was then down 7-5.

Bats for both teams quieted down until the final inning. Toth started the rally by being hit by a pitch, followed by a Cislo walk. Fellows followed with an RBI double, and Ryan LaMarre cleared the bases with a 2 RBI single through the left side. After walking Dufek, the pitcher Loftin threw away a pick off throw to first, allowing Dufek to second and LaMarre to score. Aspinwall would knock in Dufek with a single, but would ultimately be caught stealing. Michigan lead 10-7, and Dufek would close out the bottom of the 8th for the win.

Lineup Changes

During the second Jacksonville game, I got to thinking about how long it would take for McLouth to be bumped into the cleanup spot and Dufek drop to the 5-hole. Dufek’s batting average has been hovering around the .210 line while McLouth, while not drawing many walks, has been batting well over .400 for the season. It made sense to me for these two to switch, offering Ryan LaMarre more protection, and getting Dufek more strikes to look at as McLouth will be on base, and the opposing teams can’t afford to pitch around him with runners on.

After some second guessing on my part, Coach Maloney did indeed make the switch in the Akron game. The move didn’t make any noticeable changes in the output of the game, but its a pretty small sample size. I’m interested to see if the switch stays permanent when we play Siena on Saturday.

The other switch included swapping Toth and Fellows in the 2 and 9 holes. I really liked this move too. Toth also has been struggling with the average, but is getting on base just as well as anyone else. By moving him into the 9-hole, he can get away with the low batting average as he won’t need to knock in runs, but his walks will allow him to act as a lead off man when the lineup rolls back over, allowing him to still score many runs.

This move worked excellently in the 8th inning, allowing Toth to work the walk and Fellows to collect the RBI double. On the other side of the swap, Fellows was able to move Cislo around on a hit while Toth struggled at the plate today. Really great move by Maloney.

Notable Stars

• Ryan LaMarre – 3/4 4 RBI, R, BB, K
• Kenny Fellows – 2/4 2 R, RBI
• Bryce Aspinwall – 1/2 R, RBI
• Timmy Kalczynski – 1/2 1 R, 2 RBI, HR (1st career)
• Kevin Cislo – 2/3 3 R
• Mike Dufek (pitching) – 3 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 1 BB, 3 K
• Coach Maloney – his 500th career win (244th at Michigan)

Notable Goats

• Toth’s 2 run error
• Wood’s 5 earned runs in 5 innings

We’re not going to continue to win games at the last minute like this. Our pitching needs to keep us in the games a bit better, and we’ve got to stop giving up so many unearned runs. We gave up 7 of them in to two games on Friday and Sunday. While our infield is young and inexperienced (at least on the left side), we must play better on defense.

I’ll have the stat watch out later in the week this time as we don’t have a midweek game. Next game is Friday at 1pm vs. Siena. We’ll be playing in Port St. Lucie, the home of the Mets spring training. We also have our rematch scheduled with the Mets on Sunday.

For those of you who don’t me, I passionately hate the Mets.  The first game I ever went to was when I was 9 months old.  It was the Mets at Astros in the 1986 NLCS.  It was the decisive game 6 that went 16 innings.  I didn’t make it all the way through the game, but it was the first and only major league game I have ever cried at.   The Mets went on to win that game and beat the Red Sox on the Bill Buckner play. I’ve hated them ever since.  May we beat them by 30.

Posted under Baseball

The Varsity Blue crew kind of threw me off by posting the USF preview so early, so I’m going to continue that pattern with this preview. I’ll have the Cincy post tomorrow with a general post on the Challenge and what it means to Michigan baseball, as well as college baseball in general. This being a conference opponent, there is a little bit more detail in this than normal. It will hopefully get a little more specific once we get to the actual conference season, when games really start to count.   WordPress is also giving me formatting issues, so bear with for the time being.   –FA

Image from purdue.edu

Purdue*

*not a conference game
February 21, 2009 11:00am
Naimoli Complex
Clearwater, Fla.
Media:  Audio and  Stats

Home Team: TBA
Probable Pitchers: TBA vs Kolby Wood (RHP, 0-0)
M Record vs Opponent: 129-52
Last Series/Game: Michigan won 2 in the Big10 Tournament, last regular season match up was the 2007 series Michigan won 3 games to 1.

Overview

As stated above, this game, despite being against a conference opponent, is not a true conference game. Due to Louisville choosing to play Florida is a better venue than the Challenge, each Big10 team is playing one game against a conference opponent. The way the Big10 schedule works out, Big10 team misses out on one conference opponent per season, much like football does with the two opponents rotating off the schedule every two years. So, for a second year in a row, Michigan does not face Purdue during the regular season. To make up for the differing number of teams from each conference, the Big10 teams opted to face the conference opponent they would not be facing during conference season.

Purdue is coming off a very successful 2008 in which they finished 2nd in the Big10 regular season and was the last competitor to lose in the Big10 Championship. This year they are expected to rival, or even usurp Michigan as the winner of the Big10. Purdue may have lost stars Ryne White and Josh Lindblom, but they return nearly every other player on the team. They are by far the most experienced, and perhaps the best team on paper. That being said, as far as winning the Big10 is concerned, Baseball America puts it this way: “The Boilermakers last won a Big Ten title about the same time the Cubs won a World Series, in 1909.”

Michigan holds a fairly sizable lead in the historical series, as seen above. When we shorten the spectrum to the last 10 games, Michigan leads 8-2 spanning back to 2006. The two losses came closing out the 2006 series and opening the 2007 series (one at school’s home field).

Full preview after the jump…

Read More…

Posted under Baseball