State of” in the sense that Michigan is a state, and in the sense of a condition of being. Part 5: Discussion on reader feedback and questions.

Part 1:
My first assertion, that fans in the state of Michigan are not all fans of the Wolverines, was not disputed:

I’d say Tim is correct. OSU is the only game in football crazy Ohio while Michigan is divided. M could dominate the state but has only done so in SE Michigan. MSWho has been dominate in Saginaw/Flint. But the rest of the state….

Southwest Michigan’s population has Chicago team and Notre Dame fans. Further, you cannot discount the in state MAC teams. Many of my relatives in SW Michigan are Western fans before they are M or MSWho fans. My niece attends Central and knows all about the Chips, but little about Wolverines!

– Wolverine 98284

I agree with Wolverine 98284, but would like to mention that he is perhaps overstating the SW Michigan ties to non-Big 2 schools. In Grand Rapids (where I live, and which could be considered SW Michigan), people are indeed fans of MAC schools, but Michigan and MSU have strong influence as well, along with Notre Dame. I disagree that many SW Michigan residents are Chicago team fans, however. Tigers, Lions, Red Wings, and Pistons are the overwhelming favorite almost throughout the state.

The comparison to Ohio was not a topic of debate, either:

I grew up in Ann Arbor and now live in Cincinnati. Tim is 100% correct about the Buckeyes, it’s the only game in town when it comes to college sports. OSU is even bigger then UC in Cincinnati. Ohio recruits have one choice where to play football and that’s at OSU.

– Bob

Pretty much everyone was in agreement that Ohio is a state united (behind the Buckeyes), whereas Michigan’s loyalties are spread amongst 2-3 (I didn’t account for Notre Dame in the original post, but I think it is definitely something that needs to be accounted for (i.e. eliminated from the face of the earth)).

However, some people didn’t quite see the connection between having 2 “main” schools in the state, and the Wolverines losing recruits to out-of-state schools:

I feel your argument on why Michigan recruits go to other schools (MSU/USC/otherwise) was not fully developed. Are you arguing its because they lack a central allegiance to one school? I could see this as a strong reason to support losing kids to MSU, but I feel its a rather weak argument in regards to USC/out-of-state opposition.

– kowisja

While the split loyalty does indeed mean that the Wolverines will lose some recruits to MSU, I still believe that it does help out-of-state schools with Michigan prospects as well. If a player is a lifelong fan of Michigan, then Michigan has a distinct advantage in his recruitment. However, with a state divided, he is more likely to be a casual fan of the Wolverines (or even a fan of Michigan State). When it comes time to make his decision, Michigan doesn’t have the advantage that they would have had if the Wolverines were the overwhelming choice of the entire state (see: Ohio State), and both instate schools start without as significant an advantage as a single instate school would have had. In addition, if he grew up a State fan, but wants to go to a good school/program, he might choose to go out of state, so as to not have to play for the rival of his favored Spartans.

There were also a few other explanations offered by people:

We have definitely pushed harder to get the recruits from out of state. I don’t quite have the desire to research this, but I’m interested to see how many instate recruits of high ranking and in positions Michigan needs have bolted to schools outside of UM/MSU.

– kowisja

1. Recent Coaches/Success
2. It’s warmer in other places. Hi USC, Florida, LSU.
3. Visibility/Draftability.
4. I hesitate to mention this, but based on various reports: Shadiness. OJ Mayo, Reggie Bush, Maurice Clarett, Troy Smith.

– Dave

I think kowisja’s point isn’t necessarily true, especially regarding a player that he cites as an example, Nick Perry. I don’t believe that the staff missed on Nick Perry because they were focused on out-of-state guys. On the contrary, I think they really wanted him and simply whiffed (note: I think this happened before the new staff was in the picture), mostly because they had taken him for granted. As far as the first part of kowisja’s post, I might go through and do a bit of research about instate prospects who went places other than Michigan or OSU sometime soon.

As far as Dave’s points, I hesitate to ever call #4 into play, mostly because I think it’s more of an excuse than an explanation, but it may be relevant. The first two definitely play something of a role. I think #3 is a nearly-direct result of #1, and if Michigan started winning more, the recruiting rankings, both in- and out-of-state, would improve.

On to Part 2:
Some people tried to help come up with reasons that Michigan produces so much less D-I talent (especially high D-I talent) than Ohio.

Several of our football players stopped playing football to concentrate on soccer, baseball, and particularly hockey, which played a prominant role in our town’s fandom. Are other sports as big of a deal in Ohio? I don’t know about others, but I can’t imagine hockey being as prominant.

– footymcgavin

I originally thought that this would be a significant factor. Obviously Michigan produces more hockey players, but I thought maybe there was something to Michigan’s reputation as a “basketball state” compared to Ohio’s pedigree as a “football state.” However, while Ohio does indeed produce way more football talent, the two states are about even in terms of producing basketball players. With no easy way of checking for soccer and baseball prospects, this is an issue that likely can’t be resolved statistically.

Even still, if such a difference between the two states exists, there must be some explanation why Michigan’s athletes are moving away from football whereas Ohioans stick to the gridiron.

And finally, Part 4:

Most people agreed with the rules that I would change for the MHSAA:
The all star game rule is the dumbest…i remember grady wasn’t able to play in one because of that.

– RJHOVE

There was also a question about coaching, too:

I’m somewhat curious how coaches salaries work in Michigan. Are they subjected (harsh word choice I know) to normal teaching salaries by the Teacher’s Unions, or can they make more money? The football coach at my high school was making more than everyone minus the superintendent for the entire district. Granted our coaching staff was comprised of probably 24 coaches covering 6 football teams (Varsity, JV/A, JV/B, Freshmen A,B,&C). There were at least 2 coaches (HC and OC) that didn’t teach any classes other than Football period. I highly doubt Michigan’s teacher’s union would have the same allowances.

Makes me wonder then how many of the best coaches stay in Michigan, not just the recruits.

– formerlyanonymous

Good points here. However, I’m not sure too many people go into high school coaching as a career, leaving the state for a higher salary. If coaches were moving up to the college ranks, it might make sense, but a great HS coach leaving the state of Michigan for a HS coaching gig in, say, Texas, doesn’t seem to ring true.

On the other hand, it may be the case that some high schools in Texas are able to pay competitive enough salaries to prevent coaches from making a jump to small-college coaching. This would certainly go a long way to keeping good coaches at the high school level within the state
.

Thanks for the great dialog, everyone. If you have anything else you’d like to contribute, I’m all ears.

Posted under Analysis

“State of” in the sense that Michigan is a state, and in the sense of a condition of being. Part 4: How can the high school game be improved?

Keep Funding, Baby
Nothing will flourish if it isn’t given the proper resources, and if you throw enough money into something, it can often succeed despite its best efforts not to (except the Yankees – ZING!). Those who can should continue supporting the football programs around the state, especially those that aren’t in position to help themselves. More funding leads to better equipment and coaching, which inevitably leads to better quality athletes coming out.

Abolish Bad MHSAA Rules
This is one area that really holds the state’s football talent back. There are three specific MHSAA rules that I think are crap, and should be eliminated.

1. MHSAA schools are not allowed to travel more than 300 miles for a game, nor are their opponents (there are some nuances, such as they can play anywhere in an adjacent state). This is apparently designed to prevent money from being thrown away for mere high school football games, and to relieve potential stress on high school athletes due to traveling. However, it prevents Michigan teams from playing the best teams in the country (unless they are from Ohio, Indiana, or Wisconsin), decreasing the exposure of the high school game in the state. A Herbstreit Challenge-esque event is out of the question, since it would be against this rule for Michigan teams to play anyone from Texas, California, Florida, etc.
2. No spring practice. The intent behind this rule is either to allow kids to play other spring sports without the possibility of discipline from their football coaches, or to prevent them from playing sports year-round and wearing out their bodies. The second rationale is crap, because most football players play at least one other sport, and often two. While there is something to be gained by wide receivers and running backs participating in track (for example), not allowing spring football discourages athletes from trying to excel in this sport. In most other states (especially those that take high school football seriously, such as Ohio and Texas), spring football is a way of life.
3. All-star participation forfeits eligibility. Current MHSAA rules state that any athlete participating in an all-star competition (such as the Army All-American Bowl or the ESPNU Under Armour Game) is ineligible for high school sports. This means that football players must make a choice between participating in an all-star contest or playing a spring (even winter, for much of basketball season falls after the new year) sport. This discourages Michigan athletes who are of a high enough caliber to participate in these contests, reducing exposure for players from the state.

More TV
This would likely take care of itself if some of the other suggestions were to come to fruition (i.e. allowing teams to play at or against Texas schools). With the death of Comcast Local, there is almost no coverage of high school sports, including football, until the state championships. This may be a chicken-and-egg argument, but with better football will come more TV, and vice versa.

Posted under Analysis

“State of” in the sense that Michigan is a state, and in the sense of a condition of being. Part 3: How can we improve the state of the state?

The University of Michigan Reigns Supreme
As the comparison to Ohio shows, perhaps states are better served by having one in-state power at the college level. While many Wolverine fans may wish that Michigan State would just go away, or drop out of the Big Ten entirely, this is never going to happen. Instead, the Wolverines must continue their dominance over the Spartans, winning over the hearts and minds of impressionable youth in the state.

The state of Michigan might not be improved by having the Spartans be a perennial cellar-dweller in the conference, but with rare victories over Michigan, and a continuance of the current run of mediocrity, Michigan State will be good enough to keep citizens interested in the sport, but not good enough to win fans over Michigan. The best-case scenario for Michigan fans would be having State win all their nonconference games each year, and dwell in the middle of the pack in the Big Ten, never beating Michigan and having bowl years about half the time.

Michigan continuing its success over MSU in other sports would also help, as well as establishing a winning tradition in basketball.

More Exposure to (Good) Football
With only the Lions representing the state in the NFL, Michigan does not have a huge presence in the professional game. Especially painful is the fact that the Lions perpetually suck. However, any football helps. If the Grand Rapids Rampage could be respectable in the Arena Football League, this would also help make Michigan more of a football state.

The state should also encourage any professional league (such as the AAFL, currently on a one-year hiatus before it has even started) to establish a franchise in the state of Michigan. This increases exposure of the game to Michigan citizens, and can also help the economy of the state.

Basketball State?
One possible reason that football does not hold the hallowed place in Michigan’s culture as the game does in Ohio, for example, is that it is not the most popular sport in the state. Basketball is probably the king of the state at nearly every level, and hockey is popular in Michigan moreso than any other state (aside from Minnesota). These sports are also aided by the fact that the professional franchises

I won’t suggest that Michigan as a whole forget about these sports, but just realize that football at least as important as each of them. If many elite prep athletes in the state didn’t forgo football to focus on basketball in the offseason, Michigan would be aided as well.

Posted under Analysis

“State of” in the sense that Michigan is a state, and in the sense of a condition of being. Part 2: Why does Michigan produce less D-I talent than Ohio?

Michigan and Ohio have been at odds throughout modern history. Beginning with the Toledo War and continuing through the Michigan-Ohio State rivalry, there has always been a certain degree of animosity between the two. While Ohio State has the recent edge in the rivalry, Michigan holds the overall record. Despite this, more Ohio-born players have won The Game than have Michigan natives. This is because the University of Michigan has to use the state of Ohio for recruiting, while the Buckeyes don’t need to return the favor to build their team.

Prove It
To illustrate the point that Ohio produces better football talent, let’s take a look at the recent Scout player rankings. While many players ranked lower than 3 stars will eventually sign with Division I schools, let’s look at the highly-ranked players. For a sample size, we’ll consider any prospect who could feasibly be on a roster in Fall 2008 (2004-2008 recruiting classes).

(* Indicates players that were 2-stars that are included in the signing numbers).
It is clear that Ohio produces more talent than Michigan. Over the past 5 recruiting classes, Ohio has produced 204 3-star or higher players, while Michigan has produced 80. Michigan signed 26 Michigan players (including three 2-star players) and 14 Ohio players (including a single 2-star). Ohio state has signed 3 Michigan players (including one 2-star) and a whopping 55 Ohio-bred players (including six 2-star players). It is plain to see that the state of Ohio produces far more Division I players, in addition to more UM/OSU caliber guys.

Distribution of Population?
The two states produce a significant difference of players at pretty much all levels of analysis here. While this would initially lead one to believe that it was simply a higher population in one state accounting for the difference, this is not the case.

Population density may be something of a factor (are there enough people in one location in the UP to muster up an 11-man football game?), but the differences aren’t that great, especially if you eliminate the ridiculously sparse UP (32% of Michigan’s land, but 3% of its population).

Ohio doesn’t produce more football talent just because it has more people. More nefarious mechanisms are at work here.

Economics
While it is free to go around whacking people, and cheap to get a football to toss around, playing actual organized football does have some significant costs. Individuals must incur costs to join youth leagues, and buy a fairly significant amount of equipment. Schools must invest in equipment, jerseys, staff, and other expenses, which can be a financial burden that is difficult to bear.

However, is Michigan’s economy that much worse than Ohio’s? I wouldn’t presume that this is a major factor, since Ohio has been producing much more talent seemingly since the beginning
of time. Even when the auto companies in Detroit were thriving, Ohio was producing more football players.

Passion
Perhaps the reason is simply a difference between the citizens of the two states in terms of how much they care about the game. There is no way to accurately gauge this, but I honestly believe that it is the case. While there are places in Michigan where football is very important to people, it borders on religion in most of Ohio. Part of this may be the culture of Ohio State hegemony (check out part I in this series), and there are likely other factors adding to it, but no concrete explanation.

Posted under Analysis

“State of” in the sense that Michigan is a state, and in the sense of a condition of being. Part 1: How does Ohio State continue to keep all of the best in-state talent for themselves, while Michigan players go to other schools, including USC and Michigan State?

Statewide Pipeline
The primary reason that Ohio State manages to keep all the best Ohio talent for itself is a lack of instate competition. Until Cincinnati moved to the Big East in 2005, OSU was the only BCS school in the state, and until the Big East (and Cincinnati under Brian Kelly) becomes more respected as a big-time conference (and legitimate major school), Ohio State will continue to reign supreme over its home turf. Perhaps coincidentally (or maybe not), the majority of teams in the state also share one important thing with the Buckeyes: the color red. Cincinnati, and Miami among Division I schools, and pro teams including the Cincinnati Reds and Cleveland Indians and Cavaliers have red as one of their colors. For comparison, Michigan has two main colors, which fans in their own stadium can’t even coordinate (and the pro teams share none of, unless you count the Pistons’ blue as being close enough to Michigan’s).

In Michigan, there are two BCS-level schools, both of whom compete in the Big Ten conference. While Michigan State is seen as more of a rival for non-revenue sports to Michigan fans (they concede basketball to the Spartans in exchange for football dominance), Spartan fans see the football rivalry as very real. Individuals who have been in the state for a long time can easily remember when MSU football was the big game in town (before Canham and Schembechler returned Michigan to Glory – and not in the LOL ND way). Overall, there is a near 50-50 split between Wolverine and Spartan fans in the Great Lakes State.

While having two popular schools in the state may not explain why talent is willing to leave entirely (and go to USC, for example), it certainly helps explain why there is no allegiance to a particular school. With no ties to UofM, Michigan’s players don’t feel obligated to give Michigan more of a shot. This is not the case in Ohio, where nearly every baby’s first outfit is either scarlet or gray.

In Michigan, the allegiance is not to one college team, but to one pro city, Detroit. The state throws itself behind the Tigers, Red Wings, Pistons, and (for some reason) Lions, then divides its attention between MSU and Michigan, and to a lesser extent the other state schools. I still remember the 2006 MSU game, where the score of the simultaneous Tigers game against the Yankees was announced, and Chad Henne had to take a timeout, because fans were cheering more for the Tigers (while the team that they actually paid money to see was on offense) than I have ever heard them cheer for Michigan. Ohio on the other hand, is a state united by one college team, Ohio State, and divided among several pro cities (Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Columbus). This factor also gives the Buckeyes an in-state advantage.

It isn’t likely that UCincinnati ever becomes as ingrained into Ohio culture like the Buckeyes are, and Michigan State, while always little brother, isn’t going to go away any time soon. In-state, Michigan will always be disadvantaged in the Mitten compared to Ohio in the… uh… heart-shaped thing.

Posted under Analysis