Massey of Buckeye Commentary gives his weekly Wolverine Commentary.

What I saw/heard/read: More than the game itself, I started seeing/hearing/reading a palpable drumbeat of disdain for this team. Yeah, we (you and me) see it all over the Interweb, but most people do not troll the Information Superhighway like we do. The masses consider John Saunders a font of information. So, when I saw Braylon Edwards wearing a Penn State shirt a red flag went up. I am aware that some people believe it is a tradition to wear the opposing team’s logo/shirt/something the week before the game, but considering Edwards earlier confrontations with Rodriguez, most people likely see this as another flank in the passive aggressive Michigan revolution. To top it all off, Michigan AD Bill Martin came out and said Rodriguez has his full support. No shit, the guy has only coached six games. But, Martin would not say that if he had only received a handful of complaints from long-time-fans-first-time-callers. He must be getting it from all sides. This is unbelievable.

Michigan is not good this season. So what? They were not going to be great with Carr either, which is why I am so bemused by fans’ collective response. I suppose this reaction is a testament to Michigan’s incredible, consistent success over the last 30-plus years; the idea of one poor season is cataclysmic.

Believe me, Michigan football will be more than fine. Saban lost to Louisiana Monroe last year and The Tide seems to be doing okay this season. The greatest current threat facing Michigan fans is developing an over-inflated sense of entitlement ala South Bend.

What I did not see: Any reason Nick Sheridan should play besides Threet’s injury. Even then, it might not be warranted. Man, was I sooooooo wrong about him claiming the starting spot before this season ended. Sorry about that one. I also did not see Justin Feagin, which after seeing Interception Pants, truly surprised me. What could possibly be holding Feagin back? Has he been injured? Struggled with the playbook? Mouthed off to coaches? It is time to burn that redshirt in the name of hope and progress – in the name of 2009.

Who I watched: Once he came in, I watched Nick Sheridan. I was so prepared to be vindicated for my previous position. Yeah, how did that one work out? In the end, I got tired of watching Nick Moore catch more passes than anyone I have ever seen and look better than all of Ohio State’s receivers in the process. Yeah, Moore is from Columbus. [/Loud thump heard in distance]

What I expect next week: I have no idea. I could say “a total thrashing beyond all Michigan fans’ wildest nightmares,” but I do not believe that. I know they are 24-point-ish underdogs but the Wolverines played their best game against their best opponent to date, Wisconsin. I do not think it will be 31-0 at the halftime. Honestly, I really don’t. Penn State is good – the best team in the league by a country mile – but Michigan has yet to roll over and I actually think playing on the road will help them. No more home fans booing and cascading debris upon error. No more walking to and from the locker room seeing dejected faces in the stands. Something has to help, right?

What this tells about The Game: If both teams play relatively decent defense, the first team to 10 points wins that game. In case you missed it, the USS Pryor ran aground against the league’s WORST defense. It is only slight hyperbole to say that Ohio State’s offense is almost as bad as Michigan’s. Statistically speaking, the difference is 30 yards/game. If you brought someone back from the dead who died in the mid-70s to watch that game there is a very good chance the game would kill them.

Posted under Football

Or: How one player can catch 20 passes in a game.

The Situation(s)
In Round 1, Toledo trails Michigan by 3 in the 3rd quarter. The Rockets are driving for the chance to take a lead, but they are already well within field goal range. They have a 2nd-and-10 from the Michigan 21. Their strategy: move the ball down the field with short, easy passes.

In Round 2, the game is now tied at 10 late in the third. The Rockets are now driving for the opportunity to take the lead. They have a 1st-and-10 from their own 21. The Rockets decide to stick with what has been working: the short passing game.

The Personnel and Formation(s)
On both plays, the Rockets are in a 3-wide, 2-tight end formation. In the first situation, Michigan counters with their Okie package. In the second, they are in a standard 4-3, but the personnel is spread wide. Since he’s the player we’re focusing on, each Toledo formation has Nick Moore to the twins side, though he is in the slot in round 1 and out wide in the second play.

The Play(s)

In both situations, Toledo keeps each tight end for a max protect. In both situations, Toledo runs a simple combo route that takes advantage of what they presume to be soft coverage of one form or another.

In situation 1, it is a hitch-flat combo that takes advantage of man coverage with a huge cushion provided on Moore by Brandon Harrison.

In the second situation, it is a slant-flat combo that takes advantage of cover-2 defense by Michigan and infamously terrible pass coverage by John Thompson.

Why They Worked

These are good reads by Opelt against predictably vanilla defenses. In the first one, he sees that the cushion is large enough to guarantee that Moore will get about 5 yards. In the second, Thompson follows the flat receiver into Trent’s zone (so pin this play on him), and then Brown’s pursuit angle is lacking somewhat. This is a case of being outschemed (due to lack of effort) and John Thompson just kinda sucking.

It was clear by this point that Moore was the #1 option on essentially every play, and Michigan’s scheme should have been catered slightly more to slowing him down (and John Thompson should have realized his error before it happened). Marell Evans must be really far behind, because it would be hard to play worse than Thompson, at least in coverage.

Posted under Football

The Situation
It’s the first quarter, and Michigan is trying to respond after a Toledo interception return put them down 7-0. Michigan has a 2nd-and-7 from the Toledo 36. A modest gain could move Michigan into field goal range. If they lose yards (Ha!), they will be pushed back, and face a daunting 3rd down conversion, which science says they are likely to convert at a very low rate (currently 27.2%, fourth from last in the NCAA).

The Personnel and Formation
Michigan is in the I-formation, with Sam McGuffie as the deep back and Mark Moundros the fullback. Kevin Koger is split in the slot, but motions over before the snap. Toledo is in a 3-4 defense with both outside linebackers in blitzing position. Prio to the snap, they bring one of their safeties up to the line of scrimmage.

The Play
Toss sweep to the right. Clusterfuck in the “blocking” department, with Schilling trying to stretch all the way to the safety, Moundros attempting to get to him once it is apparent Schilling will not, the playside DE unblocked, and all sorts of Toledo defenders flowing to the playside, with not enough blockers there to take care of all of them.

Why it Didn’t Work
The purple line represents the arc of the playside offensive linemen.

This play was doomed from the beginning. By the time the ball was snapped, it was clear Michigan would be greatly outnumbered at the point of attack. Couple that with crappy blocking from Schilling (not his fault, he is being asked to make a ridiculous stretch), Moosman completely whiffs on his guy, and unblocked players in the backfield everywhere. Koger is blocking down on this play, which allows even his man to get into the backfield. McGuffie is screwed from the beginning, and does what he can to avoid a huge loss.

Now you (unfortunately) know what it was like Inside the Play.

Posted under Football

The game in text messages…

Tim: oh fuck
Paul: we can spot the rockets 7… right?
Tim: if we cant… kill me.
Paul: after this drive, ill decide whether to prep the CN^4
Paul: is warren dinged up? and finally the minor seam works
Tim: hes been near hurt most of the season
Paul: also… michigan fans really, really, really, really suck
Tim: they are sub sufficient
Paul: ive caled one a dumbass and argued with about 3 more
Paul: im going to get in a fight with someobne. its inevitabl. why wouldn’t you run on 2nd and 20 with 10 secs left?
Paul: so you try a bomb with a qb who has already thrown one pick6 and tried to throw another?
Tim: toe fuckledo
Paul: ruck the fockets!
Paul: and we got rick roll’d
Tim: obvs. kill me now
Paul: is it better than the m offense has scored all 17 points this game?
Tim: better, yet simultaneously much, much worse. i think.
Paul: they’ve only scored 3 on the michigan defense
Tim: they are also toledo. im just sayin
Paul: omg! first down! fire shaffer!
Nate: it is sad. for the world
Tim: remember how sheridan is terrible? shit…
Paul: sheridamnit?
Tim: pretty much
Paul: CONER!!!
Tim: put in the competent qb plz
Paul: i wouldn’t mind seeing threet, odoms, mathews, warren, and/or graham
Paul:this seems eerily similar to appy. except both teams are much worse
Tim: remember how sheridan suxzzz? me2.
Paul: hes like pat white with a much worse arm/less running ability/no melanin and better hair
Tim: way better hair. unfortunately, hair != skill
Paul: id take opelt :(
Paul: mind lasers. please. we need an inexplicable mistake on their part
Tim: tom hammond save us all
Paul: all hail hammond! & zoltan…
Paul: mmb should learn yakety sax
Tim: no but we’re srsly going to lose to fuckin toledo
Paul: ast time you said that we lost to appy! jinxer!
Paul: i think this proves sheridan to clemons is not effective
Tim: sheridan to X is generally terrible. mostly on account of the sheridan factor
Paul: bye bye motor city bowl
Tim: i might puke
Paul: can we pretend toledo is in CUSA or something?
Tim: beat the fucking nittany lions
Tim: maybe we can win the tears of infinite sadness award this week.

Posted under Analysis

When I previewed Toledo in the summer, it appeared as though they may be one of the very few easy games for Michigan in 2008. The Rockets have gone 1-4 so far, with the lone victory coming against the moribund Eagles of Eastern Michigan. We spoke to Jason Mack of the Independent Collegian to give us the latest on the Rockets, and it doesn’t really look like Toledo should be too great a challenge for Michigan. However, if Michigan has shown one thing this year, it’s that there are no sure things for the 2008 Wolverines.

Offense
The Rockets are 66th in the nation in scoring offense, despite putting up 41 on Eastern Michigan in 54 on Fresno State (in 2 overtimes). They were blanked against Ball State (a fringe top-25 team, but one known for its offense, not stellar D), and put up 16 points in games against Arizona and a 3-score loss(!) to Florida International(!!). Aaron Opelt is the Rockets’ starter, passing for 869 yards so far on 166 attempts (5.23 ypa). Most of his passes have gone to junior Stephen Williams and senior Nick Moore. On the ground, DaJuane Collins and Morgan Williams have gotten the lion’s share of carries. Collins appears to be infinitely better than Williams, averaging 7.42 ypc on far fewer carries than those on which Williams is netting 4.11 ypc. Collins missed the FIU game and was limited against Ball State.

In short, the Rockets aren’t exceptional on offense. They run a pass-oriented scheme with lots of spread formations. Regardless, they haven’t spread the ball around much, and haven’t put up tons of points on anyone. Michigan will be by far the best defense they have faced this year. However, they run a lot of quick passes which may neutralize the Wolverines’ advantage in the trenches.

Defense
Toledo is 89th in rush defense and 109th in pass efficiency defense. This is bad. Considering the competition they’ve played, which includes such offensive juggernauts as Eastern Michigan (to whom they gave up about 130 yards passing and rushing, which is below their season average), and Florida International (to whom they gave up 98 yards passing (40 yards below FIU’s season average) and 141 yards rushing (55 yards more than FIU’s season average) – and still managed to give up 35 points). So, the defense isn’t great. Or good. Or passable.

Michigan’s run game should have another opportunity to get itself moving. We’ll see if that actually happens. If it doesn’t, predict pain for the rest of the year.

Predictions
Michigan gains more fumbles than it gives away(!).
The Wolverines have 3 rushers go over 50 yards.
Michigan wins, 34-9.

Posted under Analysis

This week we talked to talked to Jason Mack, the Sports Editor for the Independent Collegian at the University of Toledo, pictured to the right. I’m trying a new audio player, so let me know if you can see it. Enjoy:

UPDATE: I tried a new player and there’s an issue with it. To get the blogcast, just right click here and select Save Target As.

 

 Previewing the Toledo Rockets [10:03m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

Posted under Blogcast

After Saturday night’s offense-only thriller between Fresno State and Toledo, Michigan fans were understandably worried about facing the Rockets in a few weeks in the Big House. In The Glass Bowl, Toledo took a BCS Buster to the wire, before finally falling in two overtimes. This means that the Rockets are legit, right?

Let’s take a look at the logic.
Wisconsin is a good team
Fresno State played a good game against Wisconsin (in Fresno)
Toledo played a good game against Fresno State (in Toledo)
Toledo is a good team.

Of course, early in the season, we don’t know a whole lot about many teams, and the Badgers, Bulldogs, and Rockets are not exceptions. Is there a chance that out assumptions may be just a little bit off?

Maybe the Badgers really aren’t very good. Sure, it’s not the most likely case, but there’s a possibility. Maybe the Bulldogs aren’t very good, either. And for that matter, the Rockets would be at the end of that food chain.

Resumes? Resumes.
Toledo is 1-2, having been blown out by Arizona (a team in the middle of a BCS conference, not unlike what Michigan expects to be this year), paid it forward to Eastern Michigan (you might not recognize that name without its standard prefix: perennially awful), and had the close loss to Fresno State.

Fresno is 2-1, with a 17-point win over Rutgers, which looks less like the Rutgers of the last 3 years than that of the previous 136. Their other win is over Toledo, in a close (to the tune of a missed-2-pointer-in-overtime) road game. The loss comes at home to Wisconsin, in a game that should probably have been less close than the 3-point margin would indicate, given a ridiculously horrid call that went against Wisconsin.

Wisconsin is 3-0, with wins over Akron, Marshall, and Fresno State. Assuming Fresno State is worthy of its ESPN-anointed BCS Buster status, the other two games should be of slightly more relevance. The Badgers let Akron get within 17-10 before saying “o ya were da badgers” and blowing out the Zips. They also let Marshall build up a 14-0 lead before saying “o ya were da badgers” and blowing out the Herd. The slow start didn’t happen in Wisconsin’s only road game thus far, as they took a 10-0 lead into halftime and Fresno made it a game in the third quarter.

Yahoo’s Dr. Saturday nee Matt Hinton of SMQ, even said that Fresno’s defense is pretty bad. Wisconsin put up 13 points on said defense. So, unless Arizona is way, way better than expected, maybe none of these teams are that impressive at all. Of course coming off the bye week, the Badgers should be focused and prepared to take on Michigan, but hey, why not try to be a bit of an optimist going into a game that it appears Michigan really doesn’t expect to win?

Posted under Analysis