Each week, Varsity Blue will have a guest poster, Massey from Buckeye Commentary, give us his thoughts on the Michigan game. In return, I’ll guest post on BC. Check out my view of Ohio state’s game over there.

Utah v. Michigan – August 30, 2008

What I Saw

On offense, I saw a surprisingly inept running game. No one was expecting Nebraska circa 1995, but I viewed the running backs as the strength of the Wolverine offense. Sam McGuffie, Brandon Minor, Michael Shaw, and Carlos Brown (shoulder) were totally ineffective, however. None of those four had any rhythm because of limited carries. I knew the offensive line was all new, but I was surprised that the misdirection plays were not more effective. Hell, a few of them fooled me on the couch, not to mention the camera operators. They were slightly better catching passes out of the backfield

The offensive staff clearly wanted to throw down field early in the game, which should have signaled to me that they needed to spread out Utah’s front seven because the ground game was poor. Even though the deep passes were not overly effective, 106 of Michigan’s 167 passing yards came on four completions. The short passes seemed far easier for Michigan to execute and the play they ran to get their first touchdown was borderline indefensible. After that, I was expecting to see a ton of those short throws.

Honestly, I though Nick Sheridan was better than Steve Threet. I know Threet made a nice toss to Hemingway, but he had the advantage of coming in late and having relatively little pressure. It could not get much worse when he stepped into the huddle. You could view that battle as a lesser of two evils, and I know I am in the minority, but I think Sheridan ends up being the starter, unless Justin Feagin bursts onto the scene.

What I Didn’t See

I sure as hell did not see the defense I expected in the first half. The first half defensive performance was crippling. Were they even calling defenses in the huddle? The Utah receivers could not have been more open. On 3rd and 19, Johnson hit a wide-open slant for a 50 yard gain. Huh?

I thought Terrance Taylor (foot injury), Will Johnson, Tim Jamison, and Brandon Graham would cause significant disruptions in Utah’s backfield, keep everything in front of them, and force Utah to march slowly down the field. But that did not happen until the second half, when their defensive adjustments yielded six sacks on Brian Johnson. Half of those were drive killers.

If the defense can continue at their second half level, and not get tired of carrying the offense, they could become a formidable unit before this season is done.

Who I Watched

I could not ignore sophomore Obi Ezeh, who was everywhere. He was great as a freshman and will be very good by the end of this season. If he showed up in Scarlet and Gray tomorrow, he would start. Aside from the defensive line and Ezeh, I have not heard of any of those players.

I was interested in the quarterbacks, of course, and I watched McGuffie with YouTube-tinted glasses. I would be lying to you if I said I did not imagine Pryor running that offense a few times. He is the real thing and far beyond any QB talent on Michigan’s roster at the moment. Otherwise, Michigan shuffled in so many players, I had trouble keeping track of who was doing what.

What I Expect For Next Week

I have no idea. Honestly. At the very least, I expect the defense to play well for the entire game. Miami (Ohio) is a MAC challenger, but they are not at Utah’s level.

Despite my earlier proclamation, I bet Threet starts at quarterback. I also expect the rushing attack to receive more attention, if not improve. But, the Wolverines were opportunistic against the Utes, and will need to be again if they want to put up some points.

What This Can Tell Us About The Game

Nothing, for the moment. I think we can all agree on the outcome if The Game were this weekend. But, it’s not. The Wolverines have an entire season to get better offensively and get meaner on defense. Every fan knows the role emotion plays on that last Saturday and you cannot discount the confidence and camaraderie the Michigan players may build as they collectively learn this fall.

For Michigan, every game is step towards November 22 and all we learned this past weekend is how many steps Michigan has to climb.

Posted under Analysis

Having taken advantage of one of the more “liberal” offerings of LS&A, political science major with a minor in philosophy to be specific, I constantly try to validate the classes I took by using what I learned in “real life.” So… a college football blog isn’t quite “real life,” but it’s close, so I’m going to break down portions of the Utah game using a wide swath of Western culture (no offense to Eastern culture, but I didn’t get much of it).

• Nick Sheridan is Hector of Troy: Their histories are a stretch to match, although one was a son of king, the other a son of coach. They were both intelligent, gritty and determined, and somewhat respected. Hector died fighting a battle he had no chance of winning, a one on one duel against Achilles. Sheridan, apparently, had no chance of being an effective quarterback. The Utes did not proceed to drag Nick Sheridan back to their encampment behind their chariot, but they embarrassed him all the same.
• The Offensivee Line is the (Spartans at Thermopylae)^-1: Oh, inverted, uh metaphor. I think the weird part was that the offensive line was as effective standing still trying to draw an offsides call as they were trying to block. While the Spartans valiantly stood at the pass and held off the oncoming horde to give the Greeks enough time to prepare a their Navy for a decisive victory, the Michigan offensive line could not hold off the Utes for [insert QB] to get to the mesh point with [insert RB]². (Note: just because Michigan State fans have latched on to the movie 300 does not mean Michigan fans have to ignore the city-state)
• The Second Half Defense is the French Army under Napoleon pre-1812: The Napoleonic army was very modern for it’s time and had very well trained soldiers that used rather advanced tactics. He was rarely defeated in battle and wreaked havoc on his enemies. Scott Shafer is taller and every bit the tactician. The defense in the second half played lights out and looked to really confuse the Utah offense. Many times faking retreat and flanking hard.
• The First Half Defense is All Other French Armies: The Utes marched right through Michigan’s Arc de Triomphe at will.
• Stephen Threet is Lennie from Of Mice and Men: I’m not calling Threet mildly mentally disabled. From everything I have heard he is an exceptionally intelligent, nice guy, but bear with me here. Lennie was fairly lovable. George always talked about leaving him on his own, but never could bear to abandon the adorable lurch. Something about Lennie kept George around. Lennie was also fairly effective at his various jobs, but didn’t have the higher level subtleties down. Seems fairly accurate right? Now, there’s an obvious difference in scale, but Lennie accidentally choked a women to death and his best friend ended up killing him, while Threet accidentally overthrew some passes and ended up losing the game (Note: he is not solely responsible for losing the game, but he did not win, so therefore…)

So there you have it. Hopefully this isn’t an example of Michigan arrogance…

If enough people like this, it could become a weekly thing.

Posted under Analysis

QB Comparison:

Though Threet’s stats are worse than Sheridan’s, most people who watched the game would agree that Threet looked to be the better of the two QBs in this game (this is like saying “the less painful way to get hit in the nuts with a baseball bat”). There are several factors that account for this.

• After the first scoring drive, Sheridan went from competent (started the gane 11/13) to sucky (went 0/6 the rest of the way).
• Nick Sheridan threw an ugly interception to close out the half that ultimately ended up deciding the game. He also had an interception wiped out due to a pass interference call.
• Sheridan tried to rip a ball out of McGuffie’s hands after he had already given it away, resulting in a lost fumble.
• Threet’s attempts all came after the ground game was abandoned due to both ineffectiveness and a need to slow down the clock.
• Threet’s touchdown pass was prettier.
• The offense was more effective with Threet in the game.
• Threet seemed to be more poised than Sheridan (oh god, Clausen comparisons ahoy).
• The offense just seemed to be clicking a little more (which is to say: at all) under Threet’s guidance.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Steven Threet as the starting QB next week, and I think deservedly so. however, Miami’s defense is not as good as Utah’s, so unless we see major improvement against the RedHawks, the offense could remain ugly all year. There were likely some first game jitters playing a role in the poor QB play as well, so don’t expect anything this bad again, but don’t expect to see Threet or Sheridan threaten for All-conference honors, either.

Rushing Comparison:

Ugly. I think that although the running backs had a pretty bad day, much of the blame falls on the offensive line. The backfield was collapsed on most plays, meaning that the runners had to struggle just to get back to the line of scrimmage most of the time. Brandon Minor had one good looking run, but also a crippling fumble.

Once the offensive line gets a little more used to game shape, and starts playing against less talented D-lines, hopefully they can gel a bit and become more successful. Failing that, we can pray for a midseason return from Corey Zirbel that suddenly makes the line awesome.

Michigan’s 36 yards finished 99th out of the 105 D-1A teams that have played so far this season, tied with Utah.

Defense by Half:
Utah’s total offense in the first half: 303 yards.
Utah’s total offense in the second half: 38 yards.

As Lloyd said (erroneously) after the 2005 loss to Notre Dame: “We may have lost a game, but found a defense.”

After the halftime break, the players realized that the 2008 season started at 3:30 Saturday, and even if they were going to show up a couple hours late, they would just make up for it with an extra-special effor
t in the second half.

I really do believe that Utah has one of the best offenses Michigan will face this year, and certainly among the most balanced. In the second half, they managed to shut that offense down. If anything, I’m disappointed that the game was lost, but I think the defensive improvement over the course of the game is a source of optimism going forward.

Helping the Wolverines
Of course, Utah’s mistakes were a big part of why Michigan managed to keep this game as close as it was. Utah amassed an amazing 137 yards worth of penalties in the game. This makes them the second-in-command for Mythical Penatly-Committing National Champion, behind Texas Tech.

Another note about Utah helping Michigan (though this is also something the defense and special teams earned):
Michigan’s average starting field position: their own 30.9 yard line.
Average starting field position on scoring drives: Utah’s 35 yard line.
The only scoring drive that didn’t begin in Utah territory was the field goal, and even that series began on the 50.

The Incredible Frozen Offensive Line
So, uh what was with the plays where the offensive line didn’t move?

There are two theories:

• It was just a trick play.
• Michigan’s center was trying to catch the Utes offsides.

I believe, at least partially, in theory number 2, since the second time Michigan ran this play, the referees seemed to miss an egregious offsides penalty by Utah’s entire defensive line. It could also be a trick play, but it seems a little counter intuitive to:

1. Trick the defensive line into not rushing.
2. Roll out, away from a presumably non-rushing defensive line.
3. Throw a fade route, designed to hope that the DB doesn’t notice the play has started, when he isn’t really watching the O-line for the beginning of the play anyway.

If anyone else has further insights about this, by al means, speak up.

For this week’s Inside the Play, I’ll be breaking down the Nick Sheridan touchdown pass to Michael Shaw.

Posted under Analysis

At halftime, I was trying to think of what I would post about the game. I made a note to find someone getting hit with a football in the nuts on youtube. Unfortunately that was somewhat hard to find (I was a little surprised). I settled on this:

I’m not sure what happened at halftime, (whatever it was, I’m sure Nick Sheridan didn’t feel well after…), but the defense played like it should have all game. In the second half, Utah only had drive over 10 yards (the first of the half where they got a first down on their first play and then got stymied). That’s dominant, but I’m not sure how good Utah is, and how much those low yardage totals are because of the dumb Utah penalties.

The first half was absolutely horrible. It looked like we had a walk-on sophomore starting, no offensive line talent and running backs who were running scared. Seriously, is Nick Sheridan the Jason Gingell of quarter backing? I have to think Gingell was really good in practice. Luckily it only to the staff a half and not 3-4 games to pull Sheridan. The defense seemed to worry more about keeping Johnson’s jersey clean than covering anything between the hashes.

The worst call of the game, and I called it before it happened, was trying to get some points before halftime. Sure it’s ballsy. Nobody could have predicted the defense coming alive like it did, but I could sure as hell predict Sheridan throwing an interception. That was the difference in the game.

Tim has a more thorough recap coming up tomorrow or Monday.

Posted under Analysis

Utah Offense:
QBs
Brian Johnson is the presumptive starter. He backed up Alex Smith as a true freshman, and was second-team all-MWC as a sophomore starter. He tore his ACL towards the end of the year, and sat out 2006 recovering from surgery. Last year, he injured his shoulder early in the season, but was able to return, leading the team to wins in 8 of their final 9 games. He will be backed up by sophomore Corbin Louks, who played a limited role last year, primarily on designed QB runs. He attempted few passes in his playing time. Third-stringer Chad Manis will be a redshirt freshman this fall.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Johnson has had health issues his entire career, but since it’s the first game of the year, his health shouldn’t be an issue (unless he gets hurt during the game, of course). Over his career, he has averaged 7.83 yards per passing attempt, but it was more than a yard worse last year, at 6.79. That could be a function of his being injured, however. Running the ball, Johnson has averaged 2.97 yards per attempt, though he is well below 2 since the knee injury. He came on strong towards the end of last year, however, with the final three games accounting for all but one of the times he rushed for more than 20 yards (including 69 in the bowl victory over Navy.

RBs
Last year’s leading rusher Darrel Mack returns, as does JC transfer Matt Asiata, who was expected to start last year, but broke his leg in the Utes’ opening game against Oregon State. Mack will be a true senior, and Asiata has redshirt junior eligibility. The two will battle for starting nod, with Ray Stowers likely remaining in a backup role. Stowers is a fifth-year senior who lost his first two seasons to injury. He was the team’s second-leading rusher last year. Providing depth are sophomore Eddie Wide and walkon Trevor Moss. Bennie Joppru’s little brother, Chris, rarely plays but is on the team as well.

Statistics:

Analysis:
None of the Ute running backs are particularly tall, but all of them have a good amount of mass. All of the top three weigh more than 220 lbs, with Asiata (also the shortest of the backs at 5-11), tipping the scales at 230. With measurables like this, they would seem to be inside runners, but with Utah’s spread-out attack, they are likely to be given room to operate in space as well. Utah has lots of depth at the RB position, and though there isn’t All-American quality at the top, there is little dropoff among the top few guys. Keep in mind that Utah also likes to get touches in the running game for non-RBs as well, through screens, trick plays, and options.

Receivers:
The Utes’ starting receivers are going to be Marquis Wilson, Bradon Godfrey, and Brent Casteel, all seniors (Wilson true, the other two redshirt). Wilson is expected to be suspended for at least the first game of the year. Godfrey brings size to the group, as he is a 6-3 white guy who transferred from Southern Utah after his freshman year. Casteel and Wilson are both speedy short guys, neither cracking the 6-foot mark. Casteel was Utah’s best threat in 2006, but he missed most of last year with a knee injury. Last year’s top two guys (after the Casteel injury) both graduated, but Utah has been able to replace them with more seniors. Backups Freddie Brown and John Peel are seniors, there is a junior in Elijah Wesson, a sophomore in Jereme Brooks, and a couple of JC transfers in Aiona Key and David Reed will provide depth, and likely contribute. At tight end, Colt Sampson, who was injured at the beginning of last year, will start, while former running back Zac Eldridge and JC transfer Dudley LaPorte will battle for playing time.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Apart from Godfrey, Utah’s key receivers are the speedy little bastard-type that have given Michigan fans nightmares in the recent past. However, don’t be surprised if the new Michigan regime is far more capable of handling them. Tight end is a weak point for this Utes team, unless someone performs beyond expectations. Expect this version of the spread to use the TE sparingly. Most of Utah’s receiving corps is long on experience, with several seniors in the two-deep. Casteel will be used both as a receiver and a designated trick-play guy. The (presumed) loss of Wilson will be a big hit for Utah.

Line:
Both of Utah’s starting tackles return from last year, with senior Dustin Hensel and junior Zane Beadles both entering their second year as the lead tackles. Beadles had been expected to start at guard, but he moved from the position at which he started almost every game as a redshirt freshman in order to fill for an injured player. With no tackles waiting in the wings, Beadles will probably stay at his new position. At center, Tyler Williams and Zane Taylor will battle for the starting position. Williams has a year of experience on Taylor, and is slightly stronger. Right guard Robert Conley returns to improve on his second-team all-conference performance from last year. He has been starting at the position since the end of his redshirt freshman year. Left guard Caleb Schlauderaff started the final 10 games last year, and will return at the position for his redshirt sophomore year.

Analysis:
With four returning starters, three of them seniors, the Utah offensive line is poised to be a strong point in the 2008 team. With a more experienced unit and quarterback Brian Johnson expected to be healthier this year, expect sacks to go down and rush yards per attempt to go up. If the winner of the starting center position doesn’t have problems making line calls or snapping in the shotgun, this should be among the best OLs Michigan will face all year.

Offensive Analysis:
This is certainly an experienced unit. 8 of the 11 starters are seniors, and nearly all of them have extensive game experience (including non-senior LG Caleb Schlauderaff). The tight end position shouldn’t be too key to this Utah offense, so as long as the center situation works out positively for the Utes, the offense should be very powerful. Injuries have plagued some offensive players for Utah in the past, but this is unlikely to be a major issue in the first game of the season.

Utah Defense:
Defensive Line:
Utah loses two all-conference performers in 1st-teamer DE Martail Burnett and 2nd-teamer DT Gabe Long. The two led last year’s team in sacks, with 7 and 4, respectively. Junior Koa Misi, who was a starter at defensive tackle last year, will slide outside to take over Burnett’s starting defensive end spot. End is Misi’s natural spot, so don’t expect him to be an oversized run-stuffer. Manning the other end spot will be returning starter Paul Kruger. Kruger is a redshirt sophomore who is as old as most redshirt seniors, taking an LDS mission after his first year at Utah. Backing up the defensive ends are senior Greg Newman, a former Colorado Buffalo, and several freshmen, including Derrick Shelby, who is most likely to get significant playing time. At defensive tackle, Utah must replace both positions, with Long’s graduation and Misi’s position change. Sophomore Lei Talamaivao is expected to start at one of the spots, after filling in last year as a true freshman. Kenape Eliapo will start at the other position. The redshirt junior has gained significant playing time as a backup in the past two seasons. Depth is a major issue for the Utes at DT, with very few backups available. Utah will likely have to play some true freshmen in backup roles.

Statistics:

Notes: Burnett and Kruger also logged an interception each. Fotu is expected to move to LB this season.

Analysis:
Utah’s defensive tackles are clearly a weak point of the team. The ends should be solid, with Kruger a redshirt sophomore who is the same age as most 5th-year players, and Misi presumably excelling in a move to his more natural position. It seems as though the inside run will be able to capitalize on a vulnerability in the Utah defense.

Linebackers:
Utah must replace linebackers at two positions, losing MLB Joe Jiannoni, and their top two SLBs in Kyle Brady and Malakai Mokofisi. Returning weakside backer (known as “rover” in the hybrid 4-3/4-2-5 defense) Stevenson Sylvester was the second-leading tackler last year, in addition to having the third most sacks on the team (3 unassisted). The true junior is a speedy linebacker or a big safety, with measurables somewhere between the two positions. Nai Fotu will be the starter at SLB, after playing in every game last year as a true freshman. He was a DE to start the year, but moved to linebacker “where a special package was created for him,” according to the Utah press guide. Mike Wright will be the starter at MLB. Wright is a true junior (though according to his bio he also played a year at Southern Utah, which I believe would take away a year of eligibility, making him a senior. Anyone with additional insight is welcome to chime in), who has played special teams in the past couple years, while occasionally filling in at MLB in 2007.

Statistics:

Analysis:
With Nai Fotu starting at LB less than a year after starting his career as a defensive end, it is natural to question whether he will have the quickness required to slow down Michigan’s option attack. Sylvester should have no problem chasing down Steve Threet, but I wonder whether he can track down Carlos Brown (or Sam McGuffie) in space, or if he has the power to drag down Kevin Grady. Wright performed well in backup duty last year, and he should fill the MLB spot well, if not exceptionally.

Defensive Backs:
Let’s start at the corners, where Utah has two returning starters. Senior Brice McCain has started since his true sophomore year, and was a second-team all-conference performer last year. He is Utah’s fastest player, though he gives up quite a bit in size at only 5-9. At the other corner spot, junior Sean Smith makes up for McCain’s lack of size, at a towering 6-3. He started his career at running back and wide receiver, but last year played exclusively defense, starting at both corner and nickel. Junior RJ Stanford will start at nickel and provide depth at corner. Junior Justin Jones is also a backup corner. To this point, he has mostly special teams experience. At the safety spots, Robert Johnson returns at the free safety position. He was injured last year, but still managed to garner honorable mention all-conference. He is a junior who played junior college ball as a freshman, where he was named an All-American. Joe Dale, a true junior who was the defensive MVP of the Poinsettia Bowl, will take over at the strong safety position. Deshawn Richard will be the primary backup at free safety, with RJ Rice the second-stringer at SS. Both players are seniors.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Utah’s corners are experienced, though perhaps lacking in ideal measurables. Robert Johnson brings experience to the s
afety position, and Joe Dale is an up-and-comer at the other spot. I wouldn’t be surprised if Sean Smith, the taller corner, was matched up with Greg Mathews, while the speedier Brice McCain takes on shorter receivers. If Toney Clemons and Hemingway start, Michigan will have a distinct height advantage over the Utah secondary. If Steve Threet is accurate enough, Michigan could capitalize on this. It also doesn’t appear that there is tons of depth at DB. With Michigan likely to trot out 3-5 receivers on nearly every down, it will be interesting what Utah does to compensate.

Defensive Analysis:
With a very experienced offense, Utah’s defense has to be considered the weak link. D-line and linebacker are the weakest spots, and I think this bodes well for Michigan’s run game. With defensive ends who are inexperienced (Kruger) or switching from DT (Misi), they may not have the disciplined play required to stop the read-option. With a starting linebacker who has moved from DE, there may be mismatches in the run game there as well. The secondary appears to be the strong point of the Utah defensive unit, returning several key players from last year’s #1 pass efficiency D. However, they will likely be giving up size to Michigan, and it remains to be seen if their depth is strong enough to combat a Michigan team that will have some of the best (and widest variety of) WRs they see all year.

Special Teams:
Senior Louie Sakoda handles both punting and kicking. He was the conference special teamer of the year in 2007. Bradon Godfrey is the holder on field goals.

Statistics:

Analysis:
Kicking certainly isn’t a weak point for the Utes, and Sakoda may be a candidate for the Ray Guy award as the nation’s top punter. A wide receiver holding on field goals always provides opportunities for fakes. Sakoda also had 2 passes and 2 runs on fakes last year.

Overall Analysis:
The Utes are regarded as one of the strongest non-BCS teams in 2008, who may be able to run the table if they can get by Michigan. They are also favored to win the Mountain West Conference. If the Wolverines plan to succeed against Utah, the offense will have to gel fast. Utah has a very experienced offense, and they should be stronger than last year with Brian Johnson healthy. The Michigan defense should be fairly good, but Utah will definitely get its share. The encouraging fact is that strong defensive teams tend to do better than strong offensive teams, especially at a higher level. Michigan will have to be able to take advantage of Utah’s defensive weaknesses in the run game if they want to come out of the season opener alive.

Posted under Analysis